Lies,damn lies or statistics? I am a bit reluctant to go with these sort of theories.There is no doubt some kind of relationship between the shots a team makes and the number conceded to the opposition.The problem I have with it is that's it is historical and tells us far more about the twenty games we have played than the eighteen that we still have to play.It's true that missing players returning will have some effect but I think the author is far too relaxed about West Ham's situation. A lot will hinge on their game at Cardiff this weekend.If they can avoid defeat then I think it's Cardiff who move into the firing line.Similarly although many have been scathing about our result at Palace my own feeling is that this too was a big point for us and a potential nail in their Premiership coffin.
With our game, you either consider it as "We couldn't beat Palace away, who could we beat away?" or "Palace got lucky to scrape a draw at home against one of the most out of form teams in the league, who have considerable injury issues - who can they actually beat anywhere?". Neither sound great, but we've already got more points on the board than they do.
Another stats-related post, so I'll plonk it here: Basically, 'ScoreboardJournalism' (via 'Tableau Public Software') have used their model, to come up with the following table - putting us 11th out of 17 (Hull, Palace, and Cardiff obviously not included) in terms of teams improving on their performance in corresponding fixtures last season:
So that's saying that of the 20 equivalent fixtures we've played compared to last season, we're a single point down? That's not too shabby, given the injuries we've had compared to last season.
Yeah, I think that's basically what they're getting at. As I said though, that doesn't take into account any dropped points against Hull, Cardiff and Palace
True, but if you substitute Wigan for Hull, Cardiff for Reading and QPR for Crystal Palace (based on current league standings), I think we might be actually two points up against these teams from last year and one point up over all! Progress? And given that the three points we got against Man City were simply a "fluke" against "a team on the beach", I think we can roundly discredit those from last year's points tally.
Actually, no, ignore this - we are on the same number of points against the bottom three (I thought we drew at home to Reading, but actually we beat them). And in the interests of honesty and stopping the joke above, you can of course mix and match these to make it look like we are down points.
OK, quick run through the eleven Hull: Over-achieving. If (big big if with our form at the moment) we can beat them, suddenly they're on the edge and their bubble might burst. Villa: They're rubbish, but then they were rubbish last season. Almost certainly the worst team except for QPR and Reading. But Lambert always gets a win when he needs it and that's continuing this season. Stoke: Their home form will probably keep them up. Our win there looks better by the day. West Brom: New unknown manager makes it very hard to judge. Well organised. Look a bit above most of the rest. Swansea: What the hell are they doing down here? A different class from the rest of the dross down here. Europa League costing them dear. Too good to go down, surely. Norwich: Just don't seem to have the same fight in them as most of the other strugglers. Cliche, I know, but the whole is much less than the sum of the parts. Fulham: Have real problems. Need to shore up their defence but how do they do this without impacting negatively on their attack? At least they avoid draws, which may just save them. West Ham: Big Sam still probably has more nous than most of the managers down here. It won't be pretty but I think they'll survive. Cardiff: I wanted Solskjaer, so I hope I am very very wrong about him. Hard to judge, but they'll have money. Tan is a loose cannon, though. God knows. Sunderland: I'm pretty confident they'll survive under Poyet. In fact, they're my bet for tenth. Palace: Man for man, probably the worst squad in the division. Great spirit, though, now they have Pulis. If we had their spirit we'd be challenging Southampton.
Cardiff v Norwich on Feb1st is going to be massive.By then it's quite likely that Cardiff will still be on 18points as they now have Citeh and United.If we could win that one then we could be virtually uncatchable by them.I think the change of manager may prove to be a huge mistake.
The next 3 games could well decide many things. Hull and Cardiff are the key games, but a draw against Newcastle would help as well. A good chance for at least 4-5 points, IMO, when other teams around us have harder matches. Next Saturday's schedule: Saturday 18th January 2014 Arsenal v Fulham Crystal Palace v Stoke City Liverpool v Aston Villa Manchester City v Cardiff City Norwich City v Hull City Sunderland v Southampton West Ham United v Newcastle United
This season is proving remarkably difficult to predict,largely due to the fact that so many teams are potentially in the mix.It's quite possible now that a team like Villa on the periphery of the scrap and with a run of tough fixtures ahead could find themselves involved by mid February. Although the bunching makes it tricky there are one or two pointers.Cardiff and Fulham both slip,the former now back to almost evens at 11/10 and Fulham at 6/5.The only significant movers in the other direction are Sunderland who are out to 7/5. I think it is important to bear in mind that results against top sides often have little effect on the odds of the relegation threatened sides.That certainly seems to be the case where the scoreline is confined to a narrow defeat especially with the lower side the away team.It's the fives and sixes that do the damage so it will be interesting to see the outcome of the next. two Cardiff games against United and Citeh where GD preservation could be the main factor. What I think is more easily predicted is the final points tally.With so many clubs with points around games played (Eleven on +2 or less)It is increasingly likely that 18th place will finish with fewer than 38 points.For the moment I maintain my 36/7 guess but with the rider that I think that is more likely to fall than to rise.To even make 36 the bottom sides have to score similar points in 17 games to what they have already taken from 21.
It's the usual thing with the number of teams involved in the bottom half struggle. If one team improves, others are likely to suffer as a result (eg. Sunderland up at the expence of Fulham). I think you're right about 36-37 points CT.
Agreed, but can't say with any degree of confidence about who is going to claim the other auto place.
Good win for Palace today, but City picked up valuable points against all of the other bottom half teams today. Twelfth place looks mighty fine from where I'm sitting.
It's looking more and more as if 36 points might be enough this season (maybe 37 for us in view of our poor goal difference). Similar to CT states in an earlier post, the bottom three clubs now need to get 18 points from 16 games in order to get that, and this is equivalent to what they have managed so far from 22 games. And even if they managed that, they might do it by beating the rivals just above them, which would make it difficult for them to get to 36 points. If 37 would be enough, we'd need 14 from 16 games, equal to 4-2-10 or 3-5-8. Even if with all the top teams to come in the second half of the season, it should be do-able.
You just nicked my next post! Seriously though,that is exactly the way to look at it. All three teams are now four points behind games played and for the bottom clubs to exceed a point a game requires a pretty drastic form turnaround.They are currently averaging just over 0.8 points per game and they now need 1.25ppg to make 38.
Latest Odds Palace 5/6 Cardiff Evens Fulham Evens Sunderland 6/4 Hammers 13/8 Norwich 5/1 Hull 6/1 Stoke 13/2 (Generous?) WBA 8/1 Villa 10/1 Swans 12/1
