Its what opinions are all about! For me the Cheltenham Hill and the turn of foot of The New One will decide this. Hurricane really did lay down a marker today though, regardless of how much Our Conor might come on for a run. The betting suggested that but Hurricane won well. He heads for a shot at greatness in March and if he wins this year I will have no complaints. What a race it could be.
I agree with master! TNO destroyed rock on ruby a former champ who came second last year, how is that bad form?
Don't get carried away with Hurricane Fly. Remember to maintain perspective when discussing Hurricane Fly don't forget the adage that that once he beats a horse that horse automatically is viewed as 'average'. Today, pre-race, Jezki and Our Conor were touted up as Champion Hurdle contenders, amongst the strongest he's faced, but give it a day or two and these horses will be viewed as 'average'. Remember also that should the New One and the Tent fail to beat the 10yo Fly that these horses also automatically become 'average' after the race...That's the rules!!! *irony
You have to remember the Christmas Hurdle is totally irrelevant as a piece of form for the Champion Hurdle - year after year after year the Christmas Hurdle winer bombs out at Cheltenham. Boris - all of Sametgal's form has been on goodish ground, you simply cannot say he ran to his mark in that bog at Kempton. As a juvenile he was beaten by Barizan on heavy at Taunton. Duke Of Navan's form relies on his exploits at Northern tracks beating the likes of Any Given Day (beaten 142 lengths in the Coral Cup ffs ) The key to all this is in Ruby Walsh - he beat MTOY in the supreme on Champagne Fever and he knows exactly what to do to win the CH on Hurricane Fly. Back to Leopardstown end of Jan for the Irish CH (where Our Conor may, surprisingly not line up ) and then all roads lead to Cheltenham.
If he hammers this lot in the 2014 renewal there can be no debating- this is a bloody good bunch! You know me Beefy, I question the depth of some of his Irish form but he has done today what he has ways done- dismissed whoever turns up. We wont know the answer until March but he beat two smart horses today and will go on to have a crack at two more of them hopefully come March.
The fact you're still 'debating' him Toppy makes me smile No doubt, even if were to triumph in March he'll remain an enigma with questionable form for you
Its hard to see anything but a Hurricane Fly & MTOY 1-2. The Fly will have to under perform to get beat but MTOY will be right there and if he does he may just overcome him but part from that The Champ will reign again.
Hurricane Fly produced a great performance today.... no doubting. But my money will be on My Tent or Yours come Champion Hurdle day.. I think this horse will improve again from Kempton (race not run to suit) and a strong gallop in the Champion Hurdle will suit. I think come the last fence where i predict HF, MTOY and TNO to be jumping the last together I wouldnt want Sam Twiston Davies on my horse - I would want McCoy or Walsh. There wont be much between these come March and little things decide races.. I have to say I am missing watching Ruby Walsh class rides live on Channel 4. Sorely missed his talents on these shores for me.
Nope. He will have anwered every question thrown at him if he wins as a 10 Y O against this lot- there will be nothing left to say other than to admire. The only sad thing for me is that he could have participated earlier than 2011 but for injury, and should already be a 3x winner. He would have smashed Binocular. He is a brilliant horse. I just think the record of Grade 1s is a bit flimsy when you scratch under the surface, but then again, its racings fault for not having big quality fields, not Hurricane Fly. He is the best of his generation. Do you think he will make a bit of history come March?
I don't like to wish my life away but roll on March so we can all see just how good this little fella is. The best hurdler for 20 years. Maybe longer. He beat four 2 time grade one winning hurdlers today and still he gets crabbed. In comparison TNO lost to a one time grade one winning hurdler (MTOY) and beat another one time grade one winning hurdler (Grumeti) but is a jail case. I'm baffled. TNO won a poor Neptune by 4 lengths from Rule The World who has subsequently lost twice to Jezki (by 15 lengths the second time - pulled up the first). The same Jezki who was cherry ripe today but lost out to the Fly by 2.5 lengths and who McCoy said basically can't beat the Fly unless something drastic/unpredictable happens. TNO's rating and reputation appears to be founded on winning said poor Neptune, running against At Fishers Cross (who's been extremely underwhelming this season), beating Rock on Ruby easily in a 4 runner farce and beating Zarkandar over a trip too short for the Nicholls runner this season. When they raced over Zarkandars widely accepted best distance he lost. ROR has only won his seasonal debut once in 4 attempts and is obviously trained with Cheltenham as the sole aim. He has now gone chasing. Quaddick Lake was third that day and has run 4 times since and lost by over 10 lengths on 3 of those 4 occasions. The other runner hasn't been seen since. For me, TNO's run in the Christmas Hurdle is better than anything he's done before the race and he lost. Like i said in my summation of where I see the main protagonists as of the end of 2013. TNO is a good horse who I think would definitely be able to win an average renewal of the Champion Hurdle but that's all he is. His form is not strong enough to say anything else. He might look great and have a lofty reputation but what we've seen on the track doesn't back it up. The best two horses he's raced against imho are Champagne Fever in the Champion Bumper and MTOY in the Christmas Hurdle and Aintree Bumper and he lost both times when he's raced off level weights. He got 6lbs off MTOY in the Aintree bumper and beat him a length or so. This is not the form of a super star hurdler.
Got to agree wit Bob here, TNO does not have the form to be Champion hurdle favourite imo, that Neptune was a poor race with nothing coming out of it doing much of note. MTOY will be the one to trouble HF most come next March, weather that is enough to win not sure. I am on MTOY at 6/1 e/w for it and am and happy with that. But think the value is Hurricane Fly at 4/1 for sure so had a nibble on him to.
If the ground is good and it runs I'd have to have an ew dabble on Grandouet (currently 25/1). Going comfortably when fell in the Fly's 2013 victory. Been chasing so should find these little obstacles no problem now.
I've enjoyed reading this ... especially Bostonbob's latest post that makes a lot of sense. I'll be betting like a mug with my heart in this race and be on HF on the day. I can't think of anything worse than betting with my head and not being able to roar as Ruby wins yet another hurdle race at the festival
Willie Mullins is convinced Hurricane Fly will improve by at least 5lb ..................... More on this On that basis 4/1 looks decent enough value. If/when he wins the Irish Champion his odds may shorten. The main risk seems to be if he is unable to turn up for some reason. The faith in the pretenders could well keep the price of the Fly reasonable so I think I would risk leaving it until the day. 3/1 at the off is better than 4/1 with over 2 months in the way - imo. Incidentally, I can't see TNO winning this year's Champion Hurdle (or next year's) so that should give all TNO backers some hope.
Im not bothered about the form of the Neptune, it was a 2m5 race and hes a 2 miler, it was Aintree taking on older horses as a novice when I realised this was the Champion Hurdler. You can probably knock some of the novice form of every Champion Hurdle winner ever, some good novices tail off, some step up. My Tent Or Yours has won the two speed hurdle races in England for older horses, hes the fastest hurdler in England now, and The New One was very unfortunate not to beat him. I personally fancy him strongly to reverse that form at Cheltenham. Rock On Ruby has won a champion hurdle beating Hurricane Fly, been placed in another only last season not far behind Hurricane Fly and just got nailed by Binocular over the same c+d that TNO beat him 10 lengths. They were planning to go back for another champion hurdle with him until TNO annihilated him and they were happy with him going in to race. The Cheltenham race with Zarkander is irrelevant form wise, it wasnt a true race, it was the way TNO quickened up the hill that was noteworthy, you rarely see acceleration at the end of a NH race never mind up that hill. He done the same in the Neptune, he ran the last half mile faster than they did in the Champion hurdle over 5f shorter! This horse has done everything he possibly could do when given the chance, and he will take his form to another level again in a true race in the Champion Hurdle. I reckon Mullins will have to be right about Hurricane Fly improving 5 pounds from that yesterday if he wants to give TNO a race this year. Im not particularly concerned by the views of people who couldnt see Treve.
