Cruyff, it's almost time for our traditional annual disagreement, where you give lots of figures to show that the number of points needed for safety is (say) 36, and I counter that this statistical approach doesn't work because teams always start to pull it out towards the end of the season. I have to concede that you won the argument last season, that's for sure (although maybe because of Wigan being distracted by the Cup.) Actually, this season it is looking as if 38 points will be enough (perhaps 39 for us because of our awful goal difference) because there are so many teams averaging less than a point a game so far. Also there isn't a top 3 or 4 this season, but more like a top 8 at the moment, which should keep everyone on their toes up there and may limit points for the strugglers. I also think Palace not becoming this season's Derby has increased the chances of several teams getting around 36 to 40 points. What do your figures suggest? Is it too early to make a prediction?
Well as you probably know the basis of my calculations is the relationship between points gained and games played.The key factor in this is the 18th place team but is also affected by the number of teams who are there or thereabouts.This year the figure is -4 (Fulham)with a total of five teams scoring fewer points than games played.Last season at this stage the figure was -2 (Wigan) and also a total of five teams with fewer points than games played. These figures lead me to the conclusion that the result this year will be in line with last.My Christmas prediction therefore is that the highest placed relegated side will have either 36 points or will be the team with an inferior goal difference on 37 points.
Another step backwards losing at home to bogey side Fulham. There were also away wins for Crystal Palace and Sunderland. Now we're a win away from the bottom three yet a win away from 10th, crazy. It seems the bottom half have a tendency to want to implode and get excellent results next time round. That's football!
Those last two words sum it all up for me mate It's football, by it's very nature it's unpredictable (who would have seen some of those results yesterday?) and that's a big reason why we love it. On another thread Thai tried to compare it with watching a movie, which for me couldn't be more different. Have to confess I'm not an enormous fans of watching movies, give me 90 minutes of football, a day at the test match or round of golf any day of the week
Maybe we'll beat the mighty Reds tomorrow but I just can't see it...but I didn't last season nor 2005! I'll happily take three wins over them from four home meetings!
How many on here would have taken 19 points from the first 19 games at kick off in August?I think if I had set what was acceptable that would have been it.So,yes..just.
I must pull you up on "A win away from the bottom three" we are not really.We are three points above 18th but Cardiff v Sunderland West Ham v West Brom and,to an extent Citeh v Palace mean that we can't be in the drop zone whatever happens tomorrow.
Thought you was going to mention that! I should've put it in inverted commas. It certainly makes Palace away a big one. Our bonus points so far are the wins at Stoke and West Brom, maybe Southampton. We 'lost' points to Hull, Villa, Cardiff, Swansea and Fulham as far as I am concerned, we only got TWO from those out of 15. We are on course for a point a game though. Surely we're due a win over one of the 'top' teams this season? Even Sunderland managed it yesterday.
I can't make head nor tail of the relegation race this year. 8 points separate 11 teams, all whom could go down. Who do we want to win on Saturday in the relegation fixtures? Wet Sham V Baggies Villa V Swansea Hull V Fulham Cardiff V Sunderland Generally i'd always take draws in these games as it means less points all round but i'd take the lower placed team losing if not.
Usually a side gets 'picked off' and isolated from the pack (for example, Wolves in their relegation season; Reading and QPR last season) but there's no sign of that so far. It looked as if it might happen to Palace but Pulis really has got them fighting for their lives, while yesterday's result suggests that Sunderland are not a hopeless case yet either. As you say, any three of eleven teams could go at the moment. This is one weird season so far. There are no mid-table teams other than Southampton (and possibly Tottenham).
Agree regarding draws being best for us.If there are winners /losers then I prefer the losers to be West Ham,Villa.Fulham and Cardiff because I think those four are more likely to be the weaker performer overall in the pairings.Villa don't look good all of a sudden.
West Ham 1 - 0 West Brom http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/25474663 not good for us, going to get really tight down at the bottom if the hammers win.
Well, I guess at last it's official - we're in a real relegation scrap. The other results didn't go too badly (draws) which kept everyone down there. Villa - look as bad as us a lot of the time, but somehow have the ability to come up with unpredictable wins Palace - Pulis has really got them fired up. Not much quality, but they'll fight until the end Sunderland - slowly getting it together under Poyet. I don't think they'll go down West Ham - from the matches I've seen on TV here, nowhere near as bad as their position suggests. Under-performing, like us Cardiff - Impossible to say at the moment. If Tan makes a poor decision I think they've gone. If he makes a good one, who knows? Hull - How on earth can Bruce get that squad where they are? They're looking OK. Like Palace, their spirit is carrying them. WBA - Hard to believe they'll still be down there with ten matches to go Swansea - Ditto Stoke - Home form seems good enough to keep them clear of trouble. We're the only team to have won there! Fulham - Would really look dead and buried now if we had gone for the jugular. A lot of patching up for Meulensteen to do. Squeaky bum time indeed. I'd go for Cardiff, Fulham, and possibly us
What relegation scrap? A relegation scrap is when there are four or five teams cut adrift and you can say the relegation places are definitely going to be filled by three from that limited group. That's not the present situation at all. The most you can say at the moment is that it's tight in the lower half of the table, but with half the season still to go who knows how it is going to develop.
Well technically I suppose it is a scrap but with over half the division involved.Intersting to see how things have changed since first day kick off: 7th Newcastle United:I included Newcastle in the original assessment of potential strugglers.Personally I never thought them likely to be involved and so it was to prove.With 33 points from 18 games the Geordies are more likely to be looking at playing Barcelona than Birmingham next season.Opening days odds 11/1 Todays Odds 2000/1 ! 10th Hull City: Bruce contesting the league's overachiever title with Pardew.23 points from 19.Prophets of doom will point to Blackpool's plummet from a similar position (actually 25 points) three years ago.I can't see that happening to Hull.Opening day odds 3/4 on second favourites.Today's odds a not over generous 4/1.Current form 6 points from last 6. 11th Swansea City: Surprising to see The Swans on the edge of the melee.European involvement and injuries may have stretched them.21 points from 19.Currently shown at 20/1 for the drop. 12th Stoke City:Many had them tipped to go down myself included.While they are not out of it their 21 points include a few good results and a good slice of luck too with result changing incorrect decisions against both west Brom and Sunderland.Without those they would have been on 17 or 18 points.Opening day odds 10/3 Today 8/1 Current form 8points from last 6. 13th Aston Villa:After a decent start Villa have slipped badly,largely a result of appalling home form.Compared to last year much tighter defensively without the tonkings but goals hard to come by with fewer than one per game.Currently 20 points from 19.Opening day odds of 8/1 now slightly shorter at 7/1.Current form 4 points from last 6. 14th Norwich City:Started the season at 3/1.odds today..3/1 What we expected? A bit of a turnaround since last season when we took points from the top clubs but not from the rest.Only beaten by Fulham of the real strugglers. 19 points from 19 Current form 5 points from the last 6. 15th West Brom: Probably a surprise to see The Baggies down there with 18 points from 19.Began the season at a healthy looking 9/1 Now pulled in to 11/2.sacking of Clark still looks odd.Opposite to Stoke,cheated of at least three points by poor refereeing decisions that would have seen them on the brink of the top half.Current form 3 points from six,second worst in the league. 16th Cardiff City: Where do you begin to analyse this one? If sacking Clark was odd this one is off the scale bizarre.their football hasn't been great but some outstanding results,beating Citeh and Swansea.On 18 points from 19.Began the season at 15/7 against the drop currently shorter than that at 6/4 and moving in the wrong direction.At The Emirates on Wednesday when GD damage may be on the cards.Current form 5 points from last 6. 17th Crystal Palace:Just outside the drop zone must count as an achievement.Before Pulis' appointment Palace had plumbed the depths and at one point were 1/12 on for relegation.They began at 4/7 on and are currently 4/6. Good current form.9 points from last 6. ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 18th Fulham : After three points against us they ship six against Hull.Conceded 41 goals and with the worst GD by a country mile in the division.Fulham have 16points like Palace and their first day odds of 8/1 are now just 13/10 .Current form 6 points from 6 games. 19th West Ham: Started the season at 10/1 and now 5/2.Their odds have looked generous to me throughout the season.One can only assume that a lot of faith is being placed upon Carroll's return.15 points from 19.The worst current form with 2 points from their last 6 games.Allardyce the final surviving manager in the bottom six. 20th Sunderland: after the bizarre PDC Gustavo Fring...sorry Poyet,has steadied the ship.14 points sees them just one win away from safety and their current form of six points from 6 isn't the worst.the Black Cats may still have a few lives left My bottom three : 18th West Ham 36 19th Fulham 35 20th Cardiff 32
Good assessment CT. For me, the key thing is the potential for improvement each of these teams have. As you have noted, WBA and Swansea will probably improve, as will West Ham when Carroll returns. IMO, City have a similar potential when the injury situation improves and RvW gets some games under his belt. Stoke and Villa have similar potential, but I think this is where the promoted teams and Fulham and Sunderland will have less scope for that. Sunderland may just escape again, but my bottom 3 prediction is: Cardiff Fulham Palace
Some good points there, WBA have lacked a striker and Anelka's return might help them there (unless he gets a ban for his ludicrous salute), and Swansea have had some key injuries and Europa league games, so their squad has been pushed pretty far. Stoke similarly have had some issues at the back through injuries. West Ham are very reliant on Carroll being their saviour I fear, and I don't think they've got the money to invest after they spent so heavily on him in the summer. I also can't see Villa buying anyone in January, and I don't think they will improve much unless Benteke finds his form again. Have Fulham and Sunderland had major injury issues? I can't think of many. Berbatov and Stekelenburg are currently out for Fulham, but they've not contributed hugely this season, and whilst Fletcher is slowly coming back for Sunderland but doesn't look quite the player he was. Cardiff could go either way. Apparently the new manager will be backed in the market, but who they bring in and what Tan does next are going to be important. Palace want to spend but can't have much money. Hull I think will be fine.
Clubs who sell will be looking to lift Cardiff's leg.I don't rate the January window in terms of getting value for money there is too much of an air of desperation about it all.
I think that CH and McNally will only bring in new players if the deal is right for City. There is no desperation as such, but staying in the PL is so vital that any decent chance to strengthen should be taken, as the recent spate of injuries has demonstrated.
Not a great deal of movement after the latest round.West Ham the only real mover now in to 13/8,the same as Cardiff who despite a 2-0 reverse at Arsenal actually move out a shade,maybe a reaction to the OGS appointment and the talk of big shekels.City remain 3/1. We are beginning to get to the point where we can start to gauge what those at the bottom need to achieve.Assuming 38 points as a reasonable safety line then Sunderland and West Ham both need to achieve results something on the lines of 6:6:6 from their remaining eighteen games.When you consider that these sides only have six wins between them in forty games the improvement in form required looks pretty daunting.Can Sam survive as the only manager apart from CH in the bottom seven who started the season? Time will tell. Cardiff v West Ham is the next really significant six pointer.If there is a loser in that one life will start to llook very tough.
