I was sitting and admiring Cue Card- I didn't think anything would get to him but Silviniaco stayed on well here when 2nd to Grands Crus in the Feltham (that race was 3 seconds quicker than Kauto Stars race that year) so I fancied he'd respond, but thought he had got too far back. Some nice compensation for Conti, who looked set for a big race in the Gold Cup last year before slipping up.
I did not have much on Silviniano Conti but did have the straight forcast for fun which made it nicer.
Excellent call there BlueSky- panned out as you imagined it might! My Tent and The New One as expected were closely matched. The NEw One had a nightmare being out there in front so far out. They will both run well in the Champion Hurdle but I expect the spring ground and better pace to give The New One a great chance of reversing form, especially up the Cheltenham hill. Hurricane Fly and Our Conor fans may have suddenly perked up fancying their chances perhaps?
I'm prepared to lay Hurricane Fly on the exchanges as he was off the bridle a long way from home before winning 2013 Champion Hurdle, so prefer to back Our Conor in the race. Willie Mullins might run both Hurricane Fly and Un De Sceaux in the race, the latter is unbeaten in five starts and is in the field for the Grade 1 Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday. But the trainer also has Hurricane Fly, Thousand Stars, Zaidpour and Annie Power in the race so might not run.
It is quite clear to me that My Tent or Yours is a more talented horse than The New One, all you have to do is look how both horses travelled through the race. The New One dug deep and made it a close race, but it always looked as if My Tent Or Yours had him covered, and was always going to get there. Looking at how far they both pulled clear of the rest, you'd have to say the form is fairly strong, so I don't think HF and Our Conor supporters will be that pleased with what they seen
One I take out of the race would be Al Ferof- he hardly jumped a twig (I am uneasy with him going right-handed) and he stayed on for 3rd, 14L behind the winner. Better ground, and back at Cheltenham, I fancy him to run a cracking race in a Gold Cup if Paul Nicholls decides to take that route. The Champion Hurdle looks a cracking renewal in prospect. We know that The New One and My Tent were closely matched in the past, and now they are closely matched again over hurdles. My preference would be TNO when they meet the rising ground, but more things will reveal themselves when Our Conor, Hurricane Fly, and Jezki meet over the weekend.
Just pointing out- if anyone is backing MOYLE PARK for the Supreme, as tipped up by ROTO on here- he runs in the future champions at Leopardstown tomorrow. A win there will see his odds halved for the Supreme at Cheltenham, so if you are playing any life-changing antepost multiples, I'd have your pennies on tonight. He is 7/4 tomorrow- bigger price than I expected.
Re The New One in the Champion coming to the last I'd be closing my eyes very tightly if he's in a battle! Kempton's a speed track but surely the very testing conditions nullified any perceived 'speed' advantage the Tent may have had? Stamina certainly kicked in and perhaps with another year on the Tent's back he may be staying better than he did last year.
Much as I like him as a jockey and person (at least from what I've seen on TV) I'm not sure that Sam Twiston-Davis is up to the challenge of riding the favourite in the Champion Hurdle. I think he chose the right tactics today but the horse made a right horlicks of the last and you wonder how much that might have been down to the jockey? He seems to be inventing all these perceived issues instead of just going out and riding the horse to win. On the Champion Hurdle market, the layers seem to have decided that the form of The New One and MTOY is worth much more than the Irish form - the English pair are 3/1 joint favs whereas the Irish pair are generally double the price. It will be an incredibly informative race at Leopardstown on Sunday. With The Fly currently 4/6 for Sunday's race I think the 6/1 generally available for him to win the Champion Hurdle offers tremendous value.
The hype machine for the New One is certainly helping add juice to everything else in the Champion Hurdle market Oddy that's for sure!
The New One was a jailcase beat, if he jumps the last he wins, simple as that. Cue Card, as ive said, is a villain of an animal, he couldnt win the King George because he was fav, and obviously a few jockeys finally had the sense to not give him an easy time in front. Dynaste was very dissappointing. Felix Yonger beaten by Paparazzi Kid, although have to say he hasnt run up to form, Defy Logic destroys Champagne Fever, I was on at 7/1, what a price in a two horse race, got me out it. Thats why I thought he was a 2s on dog to beat Felix Yonger last time but he wasnt at his best on the day for whatever reason.
Hi Shergar. How are you? I have to agree that all through the race My Tent did look the more impressive animal. But I was surprised how well TNO battled, and how, despite a horlicks at the last, he kept his feet and picked up very quickly; that was impressive. I don't know whether the ground favoured either one.
I've said it before and I'll say it again - slipstreaming a horse is so much easier (aerodynamically speaking) than running out in front. I know this from cycling - tanking along at 30 mph is hard work on your own (at least for any length of time) but when you are slipstreaming someone it is SO much easier. It was a cute ride from McCoy and possibly a little naive from Sam, but in reality he had no need to go so soon on TNO. He handed his rival the advantage by doing that, allowing him to slipstream him for so long.
Dont think Sam done anything wrong, he had My Tent well beaten going to the last, just unlucky the horse made a horrendous mistake at it, actually done well to still make a race of it after what happened. NTD looked raging after the race but I think that was because they just lost with the best horse rather than the ride.
Totally agree Ed - he was actually very complimentary of Sam's balance and never said anything negative. The Christmas hurdle and the King George were both cracking races and hopefully we'll see more of the same in March..
