Lucinda Russell runs 3 at Wetherby and one at Kempton in the Feltham. Its obvious that the stable really like Green Flag at Kempton as this stable do not send horse down for races like this for the fun of it, however the stable jockey Pat Buchanan who has ridden Green Flag to his three victories this season deserts him for Nuts n Bolts in the big race at Wetherby. Currently at 5-1 I Nuts n Bolts its a reasonable bet. From a looking for value perspective Long Run will give a good run for your money but I think he is regressive now. This said however if ever there is a race to take one more chance on him in its this and 10-1 is reasonable. The same could be said of Riverside Theatre at 20-1. The best each way bet of the day however runs in the last at Kempton and is Big Casino 10-1. This horse was felt progressive until running very flat at Cheltenham last time out, on reflection however that could have come to soon and after having had six weeks break now should be well up to running a place and could give the favourite most to do. Good luck all
Am with you on long run blue!! Am huge fan of his but feel he is regressing to but Giving him one more chance and at 10/1 is a good ew value especially with the headgear on if it makes any improvement he will surely run in to a place bit do like Al ferof too for the win
The headgear needs to make a lot of difference as his recent form is regressive. And he needs to be more fluent with his jumping. Cue Card is the percentage call but it's a tricky race to call, no horse stands out.
I am in with Silviano Conti at 9-2 best odds but cannot say I am confident as its a race with so many ponderables. Dynaste - looked superb last year at Kempton, yet has never delivered when tried at the top. Cue Card - Best current form and showed can stay 3 miles in the top grade but well beaten in this last year. Al Ferof - This is the lay horse as it has never run against the best at 3 miles, was beaten 25 lengths off levels last year by Cue Card with no obvious reason it should reverse with that horse. Ran beautifully last time out but a two horse race against a decent handicapper. Siviniaco Conti - my selection as travels with class yet can make mistakes even when not under pressure which is a worry on a speed course that will demand accuracy. Long Run - loves the course and has run his best races here but looks regressive overall and seems to have dropped a few pound below the best judged on recent runs. Not out of question that the few pound extra this race brings out of him puts him back in with a big shout. If not however I do not see where he goes and feel they may retire him. Silviniaco Conti to outstay Cue Card on the run in for me.
Riverside Theatre the value bet for me 20/1, hopefully sneak into at least a place, One of these races where anything can win and the front 3 in the market should all be battling out the finish yet you can guarantee only one of them will but who knows what one, all the horses in this race so damn inconsistent and any of them in form and on song could win
I'm off to Leopardstown tomorrow so decided to go through the card. Won't be backing some of these but thought I'd throw it up anyways. 12.20 Leopardstown The Thorntons Recycling Maiden Hurdle kicks off the Leopardstown Festival and it will be very big surprise if Clondaw Court doesn't get the week off to a flyer for Champion trainer Willie Mullins at what is sure to be a very short price. Unbeaten in 2 career starts to date, Clondaw Court comes here with a very lofty reputation and, despite returning from a 404 day absence, it's very hard to envisage a shock on the cards for this potentially very exciting recruit to the Novice Hurdling division. Clondaw Court ran out a supremely impressive 15L winner on his sole start in a Point 2 Point for Colin Bowe at Largy in April 2012 and although the form of that contest isn't very strong, he created a long lasting visual impression. Having been picked up for £130,000 by Rich Ricci and sent to Willie Mullins, it was not surprise that he started very short for his Bumper debut at Punchestown last Novemeber and his reputation was certainly enhanced as he sauntered to a 27L victory without breaking sweat. On the back of that performance, Clondaw Court was installed as favourite for Cheltenham's Champion Bumper and although he missed that contest through injury he still remains a horse with tremendous potential. Likely to have been intensively schooled for his hurdling debut, Clondaw Court shouldn't have any fitness worries given the yard he hails from and it does look significant that they are pitching him in to a traditionally tough Maiden for his first start over timber (although it looks a below par renewal this year). Looking at the opposition, Mouse Morris' Dromnea certainly sets the standard of those who have hurdling experience and although his form is fairly decent he was comfortably put in his place by another Willie Mullins horse on his last start and I'd personally be very surprised if he caused an upset. The one I think could follow Clondaw Court home is Dessie Hughes' Little Rocky who was a smart handicapper on the flat and who shaped a lot better than his finishing position on hurdling debut suggests after more than a year off the track and my only bet in the race will probably be a straight forecast. At likely odds of 1/5, I cannot advise anyone to back Clondaw Court as punting horses this short on hurdling debut is an easy way to go broke but if jumping around he should record a routine success and keep his unbeaten record intact. 12.50 Leopardstown This looks an incredibly difficult contest to solve with a lot of interesting angles into the race and there are 5 or 6 horses who look to have real chances of landing this contest and thus I'll likely be backing two against the field if they're each way prices. Willie Mullins saddles likely favourite Daneking who ran a fine hurdling debut behind subsequent scorer The Game Changer at Cork last month and with that experience under his belt he's sure to run a big race. Wrath Of Titans's two career defeats have come at the hands of the extremely exciting Moyle Park (who I will be backing weekly for the Supreme Novice Hurdle until March) and although it may seem strange to not back him given how highly I rate the latter he was well put in his place by Moyle Park over hurdles and was in receipt of 15lb when the pair met at the Punchestown Festival earlier this year. I couldn't put anyone off backing him as he has done very little wrong to date but I think he may find one too good at what is likely to be a fairly short price. Dermot Weld saddles the absolutely fascinating Stuccodor who brings a high level of flat form to this contest. It will be very interesting to see how he goes in the market on his switch to hurdles but he's one I won't be backing today Aidan O'Brien saddles the only filly in this contest in the shape of Beach Of Falesa and this talented horse on the flat should improve for her recent 4th on hurdling debut but again may find this too tough. The two I like and will be backing if a decent price are The Winkler and Chancol. Starting with the former, The Winkler showed a lot of improvement from his debut behind Moyle Park at Punchestown to win his next two starts in Bumpers and the form of his win at Galway under a penalty looks pretty decent. He made his debut over hurdles in a very hot Novice contest over 2m4f at Navan earlier this month when shaping nicely behind the very exciting Faugheen and Empire Of Dirt and with the 4th home Gold Patrol franking the form by scoring in a handicap hurdle subsequently it looks like it will be a very decent effort. Sure to improve for that experience, I think The Winkler will probably be quite overpriced given he hails from the pretty unfashionable Eoin Doyle stable and, if an each way price, I certainly think he is worth a small bet. The other horse I will be backing is Chancol who represents last years winning connections and he is a horse who seems quite highly thought of by trainer Noel Meade. Chancol was very well supported ahead of his debut when sent off 4/1 favourite for a valuable Sales Race at Fairyhouse back in April and although he could only finish 6th that day he ran a bit green and it was still a fine effort. With that initial experience under his belt, Chancol was a much improved horse when scoring at the 2nd time of asking at Navan earlier this month in what I think will turn out to be a very decent bumper. Under Nina Carberry, Chancol made his way through the field travelling well before taking up the running 1f out. Although he didn't quicken clear like it looked he would, he battled to a well deserved success and he certainly impressed me that day. The runner up Lord Scoundrel came into that contest having bumped into subsequent Grade 2 Bumper scorer Black Caviar on debut and I think in time the race will work out quite well. After the contest, trainer Noel Meade stated Chancol would prefer soft ground (which he gets here today) and that he has schooled very well and although it will be a tough task to take this on his hurdling debut I'd fancy him to run a big race for an in form yard. Although I couldn't put anyone off backing the other horses I have mentioned above, my money will be on The Winkler and Chancol (slight preference for the latter) and I'll be having a small Reverse Forecast in case I have (hopefully) got what looks a very tricky contest spot on. 1.20 Leopardstown The second of Willie Mullins likely 3 odds on favourites runs here in the shape of Analifet and this current Triumph Hurdle favourite should prove incredibly tough to beat here. Having been picked up by Gigginstown and sent to Mullins after winning her sole start over hurdles in France, Analifet started a warm order 1/3 shot on her Irish debut as she ran out a very easy winner from her re-opposing stablemate Noble Inn by 9L at Punchestown in November. It was very interesting after the race that Willie Mullins, who normally keeps his cards very close to his chest, stated he wouldn't be afraid to send her anywhere and it very much seems that this 3 year old filly is held in very high regard by the yard. After that routine success, she was just as impressive stepped into Grade 3 company on her 3rd and final start when she once again beat stablemate Noble Inn easily and she looks to have a very bright future ahead of her. Currently best priced 1/3, Analifet is unfortunately again not a betting prospect in my eyes but she looks like she could prove incredibly difficult to beat. Guitar Pete should prove popular with each way punters and he brings a good level of form to this contest but I personally can't see him beating Analifet and thus don't see the point in backing him each way. Of the others, Arzembouy Premier is a fascinating contender on his Irish debut having joined Gordon Elliott after scoring very easily on his hurdling debut in France and it is interesting that the shrewd Elliott pitches him in to Grade 2 Company on his first start for the yard and it will be very interesting to see if he is supported in the market. Although it is impossible to quantify Arzembouy Premier's form in relation to this contest, 14/1 looks a decent enough price for a small each way bet if you're desperate to back something other than the favourite in the in the race and although he'll have to be very smart to beat Analifet he's certainly the enigma in the field. That being said, it will surely come as a massive surprise to all if Analifet is beaten here and at very cramped odds she is far too short for me to advise backing.
1.50 Leopardstown Essentially a low grade handicap, I expect Sea Light to be very strong in the market for the very shrewd Charles Byrnes given that Davy Russell is on board instead of riding for his retained owner in Gigginstown Stud and for all that he could still be ahead of the handicapper he seems a much better horse on good ground. I've actually got a decent enough fancy in handicap debutant Dun Scaith who should hopefully be a fairly big price for trainer Tom Hogan. From a family that trainer Tom Hogan knows well, (trains two of his half brothers) Dun Scaith has been progressing well since making his debut back in July and I'm hoping his mark of 107 underestimates him on his first start in a handicap. Having not shown much in his first 4 starts (3 Bumpers, once over hurdles) as a result of being quite green, Dun Scaith seems to be finding his feet and he has put in greatly improved performances on his last 4 starts. After shaping with much more promise when beaten 17L in 7th at Listowel back in September, Dun Scaith put in an excellent performance when running a 10L beaten 4th at Tipperary over 2 miles back in August in a race that looks very decent form. Tracking the leader throughout the contest, Dun Scaith travelled well for the majority of the contest and heading into the home turn he was just about in front. Jumping the second last in a line of three with the eventual 1st and 2nd, Dun Scaith dropped back to 3rd between the final 2 flights and when his chance was gone jockey Kevin Sexton was fairly easy on him as he came home a highly encouraging 4th. The easy winner Arctic Fire subsequently ran an excellent 3rd (given a bad ride) in the Grade 1 Bar One Racing Novices Hurdle and although the runner up Enchanted Forest ran poorly both starts since he came into the contest having run two very good races off marks of 122 and that was definitely a good level of form for the contest. Additionally, the 3rd home Diyala has gone on to win a strong looking Novice Hurdle whilst the well beaten 5th Black Zero has run very well in handicaps off marks of 104 & 105 subsequently and that performance definitely looks like a mark of 107 for Dun Scaith is potentially lenient. Two starts ago Dun Scaith was sent of 7/4f for a Maiden Hurdle at Thurles over 2m6f last month and although no match for the comfortable winner Gold Patrol that again looks like some very decent form. Still showing a few signs of greenness, Dun Scaith attempted to make all for today's jockey Andrew McNamara but he found one too strong in the shape of Gold Patrol who overhauled Dun Scaith to record a pretty comfortable success. Gold Patrol has subsequently boosted that form by running a fine 4th behind the excellent Faugheen before winning comfortably on handicap debut off a mark of 113 and Dun Scaith actually lost very little to Colin Bowe's progressive performer. Dun Scaith's final start came at Clonmel last month where he finished a 20L beaten 5th and again that has turned out to be very decent race. Having taken up the running before the 3rd flight, Dun Scaith was 1L clear of the field at the 6th hurdle where he showed definite signs of quirkiness as he ran off the bend and fell back to 4th and,having been caught out by an injection of pace by superior rivals, Bryan Cooper took it very handy with Dun Scaith as he was allowed to come home a remote 5th. Again, that looks a very strong race with the winner The Job Is Right scoring impressively in a Grade 3 contest on his only subsequent start whilst the 3rd home Gort An Chnoic also won on his next start. Additionally, the 4th home Wicklow Gold (was given an impossible task in this contest) won a Maiden Hurdle very easily by 27L on his only outing since whilst the 6th home Leavethelighton (rated 117) was only beaten 3/4L in a good Novice Hurdle earlier this week. Once again, that Maiden Hurdle seems well above average and although Dun Scaith ended up being well beaten I think it was another very good run from a horse who looks to be improving with racing. Judged on his 4 most recent starts, I think Dun Scaith looks to be on a pretty decent opening mark of 107 and I'll definitely be having a nice each way bet on him if he is available at his forecast 16/1 price. Dropped back to 2m2f today, I'm hoping that Andrew McNamara tries to make all on this 5 year old son of Vinnie Row and if given an easy time of things out in front he will hopefully take some catching. Given that his half brother Flycorn has run some cracking races in defeat in Graded races, on breeding Dun Scaith certainly has the potential to defy his opening handicap mark and I think Tom Hogan's gelding is improving with every start. Although competitive in nature, I think a lot of the runners look weighted to their best and I ruled out a lot of them out from a win perspective so it does seem a lot easier than it looks on paper. Although not the most obvious horse when looking at the bare figures of his form, after delving a little bit deeper I think his last 3 runs were all excellent efforts and facing a considerably easier task on his first start in a handicap I'm pretty confident of a bold showing from Dun Scaith and hopefully he can land this fairly mediocre contest at a lovely price. 2.20 Leopardstown I'm keeping this short and sweet but it looks certain that Mags Mullins has plotted up Cairdin for this contest and I'm confident that this 7 year old can win at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival for the 2nd year running. A comprehensive winner over hurdles off a 1lb higher mark of 124 in testing conditions last year, that confirmed Cairdin's affinity for the Leopardstown track as he was beaten just a neck in a hurdle race at the Christmas Festival in 2011 and it seems very clear to me that this meeting is his primary target every year. Running in a handicap chase here today, Cairdin comes here on the back of a fine 2nd to the very talented Trifolium (easy winner; runs in the Grade 1 at 2.50) and with the well beaten 3rd home Kate's Benefit franking that form strongly when finishing 2nd in a Grade 3 Chase subsequently it looks like Cairdin comes into this contest in top form. Relatively unexposed as a chaser, it remains to be seen if he is as good over the larger obstacles as he is over hurdles but his last run would certainly seem to suggest he is and I'd be pretty surprised if he wasn't better than his current mark of 123. Jockey Brian Hayes takes off a very valuable 5lb to get Cairdin down to a lovely racing weight of 10-2 on his first start for the yard and given that he rides Leopardstown particularly well I'm definitely encouraged by his booking. Although Paddy Power seem wise to the plot by installing Cairdin the 9/2 market leader, I think he'll drift and it would be great if 6/1 was available before the race. Of the others, I've always liked King Vuvezela (is getting well backed) and his trainer Paul Nolan seems to target this race as his last 4 runners in this contest have finished 2-2-2-1 and he certainly looks a potential threat. At a big price I can see last years 3rd On The Way Out 20/1 running a decent race off a 1lb lower mark with Conor Walsh's additional 7lb claim allowing John Kiely's 10 year old to race off a featherweight but I'm confident that Cairdin can come out on top in this contest and win at this Festival for the second year running. 2.50 Leopardstown This should prove a great acid test for Champagne Fever as he steps into Grade 1 company on his 2nd start over fence and although I think he's going to take a lot of beating he looks way too short to back at 4/11. A winner at the past 2 Cheltenham Festivals in the Champion Bumper and the Supreme Novices Hurdle, Champagne Fever was superb when scoring easily on his chasing debut and it will be quite disappointing if the current Arkle Favourite is beaten in this contest today. However, it certainly doesn't look a cake walk for him as some very decent animals line up against him and he's much shorter than he really should be in my opinion. Paul Nolan's Defy Logic will definitely prove popular amongst the each way players as he has done very little wrong in his 7 career starts and after running out a very impressive winner on his chasing debut he bumped into another very decent Willie Mullins horse in the shape of Felix Yonger when beaten on his last start. Ted Veale was an impressive winner of the County Hurdle at Cheltenham last year and although he should improve for his 3rd on chasing debut I'd be a little disappointed if he was good enough to win this. I've always been a big fan of Trifolium who was unlucky to finish 3rd in the 2012 Supreme Novices Hurdle having slipped around the home bend and after having a disastrous 2012/2013 season where well beaten on both starts the combination of a wind operation and the switch to fences seemed to work the oracle for Charles Byrnes' as he ran out a very easy winner on his chasing debut last month. Since then he has been well beaten by the exciting Felix Yonger having perhaps gone off a little too quick from the front and although on collateral form through that rival Defy Logic seems to have the upper hand, the reapplication of cheekpieces for the first time over fences (was a much, much better horse with them on over hurdles) should see him improve again today and at 14/1 he does look overpriced. I do expect Champagne Fever to win this contest and strengthen his position as favourite for the Arkle at Cheltenham next year but a very small each way on Trifolium at 14/1 and a forecast on that pair may not be a terrible investment in what should be a great race to watch.
3.30 Leopardstown This looks a really, really good race to finish up the card and I think at least 6 of the horses can win this contest. The one I like though is Gordon Elliott's Fort Smith who very much caught the eye when 5th behind Moyle Park on his recent hurdling debut and it seems very interesting that his shrewd handler runs him in a Bumper here today. Having seen his price soar to €100,000 when picked up by Gigginstown Stud as a 3 year old, Fort Smith was set an incredibly stiff task on his racecourse debut behind last years winner of this contest Moyle Park over hurdles last month and he was given a lovely introduction by Bryan Cooper as he finished a not knocked about 11L 5th. Understandably sent off an unfancied 25/1 shot, Fort Smith was settled out the back of the field for much of the contest and, under tender handling, he shaped very nicely behind 4 above average horses with experience on what I thought was a really nice debut run. It may seem strange for Elliott to send him into a bumper given his first run was over timber but his trainer is one of the shrewdest in the business and given that he won this race back in 2010 he certainly knows the type of horse needed to win this contest and this half brother to Nigel Twiston-Davies promising Splash Of Ginge also looks the part on paper. Excellent Amateur rider J J Codd takes on what is his only ride of the day and I'm definitely hoping that Fort Smith will be a double figure price which he should definitely outrun. Challengers Windsor Park, Vedettariat, MacBride, The Herds Garden and All Hell Let Loose all bring strong credentials to this contest and any one of them could win and I couldn't put anyone backing any of those rivals in what looks a fiercely competitive race. At what is likely to be a very big price it wouldn't surprise me if Mr Diablo ran a good race and if you're up on the day he'd be worth a very small each way but my main selection is definitely Fort Smith who I am confident is primed to run a very big race and hopefully he can round off the day with a win at a lovely price.
Have a great day at the races ROTO. Won't get rich backing those Mullins hotpots but I hope your others come in for you
Away from Kempton I like the chances of Calculated Risk @ 9/4 at Sedgefield 1.55 and Salute Honore @ 12/1 Towester 3.05. At Wetherby though Sydney Paget is a worthy favourite in the Rowland Merrick based on his last outing, I favour Cape Tribulation @ 8s. Won this last year and then won a decent Argento of 151 and now back around a similar mark. Good luck all wagering this fine Boxing Day.
Over at Wetherby, Sydney Paget looks like the bet of the day. Hugely progressive chaser who gets in here on a very nice mark and will be galloping on strongly when the rest have cried enough. In the race thereafter, today could be the day to catch Bourne who looks to need a trip these days but is dropped in class today after finishing 8th () in a Pertemps Qualifier last time out.
I always keep an eye out for Kris Kin prodigy in the NH sphere and have found one today in the bumper at Towcester - Mistariva, out of a mare called Mrs Battleaxe, who has already produced a bumper winner by Kings Theatre (Star Lily, who is with Keith Reveley). Around 13/2 at the moment.
It isn't because The New One can't beat him that way, but Sam Twiston-Davies always says he doesnt want to hit the front too soon because the defeat to At Fishers Cross still plays on his mind.
Morning all. Today's lucky 15= 1-25,Kempton Park.Ericht. 2-35," " " " " " My Tent Or Yours. 3-10," " " " " " Silviniaco Conti. 3-45," " " " " " Mcllhatton. Good luck to all.
Aswell as a few singles im going to have a ew patent on orange nassua (price is not ew now though) Brass monkey allow me 20s available ew nap also lucky 63 vandross Beforeall sablazo Alteranthera Missmayfair orange nassua goodluck all who play
Morning all....... 2 bets for me today.. Kempton 1.25pm - Thunderstorm - 8/1 BPG E.W. Free bet from Bet365 follow Willows Saviours win on Saturday. I am taking a chance with this one and hope its fencing improves to somewhere near its hurdles form. If it does I am expecting a bold show. Kempton 3.10pm - Al Ferof 4/1 BPG E.W As previously advised really fancy this ones chances today. I am quite happy its not come up heavy and conditions likely to stay dry today and soft going will be fine... Jumps with some exhuberance at times and i just think he will be really fresh for this and would have come on a ton for his display against French Opera latest..(that one has run with credit since). Decent sized each way bet. Its very close between the top 3 and the bookies are having difficulty splitting them i see. Good luck everyone!
