AVB is/was not our most successful manager. He came fifth. He played crap football. Neither in regards to style or content was he even close to as good as his predecessor, never mind anyone else. Yeah - I remember the ten-point gap. I look forward to seeing what the next manager that achieves a 10 point gap in third position does with it - I really do. And it's easy to appoint managers of lower-level teams cos expectations are lower?! So going from bottom tier to comfortably mixing it in the Prem and playing in Europe is easy is it? Those low expectations of League Two clubs like Torquay only wanting to get as far as mid-table in the Prem and qualification for games against the like of Juventus. It's all so easy for them with to achieve such meagre targets.
I'd say each one of those Swansea managers has come in, looked at what he got and just continued to tweak it, sensible approach imo. not go in and turn the place upside down making players play uncomfortably out of their comfort zone. B&W - How is avb our most successful manager???
If we can't handle the EL and get 4th then what is the point in trying to get in the CL? We won't be in it the year after as we'll "waste" all our energy on the CL. Playing in the EL and trying to get 4th is preparing our players well for the demands of a season, or repeated seasons in the CL. We got into the CL once and while it was fun the CL had a detriment on our league form and we didn't make the CL the next time. This all boils down to the season we did get in, again, and it was a **** up by Levy IMO. We got in on the back of a season where we played next to no cup games. We weren't in europe and we exited both domestic cups very early (possibly first round for each). What we should have done is gambled on bringing players in then in order to maintain 4th+ while playing in the CL. We didn't, and now we are here. Blah blah Harry, blah blah AVB, for me it all boils down to one summer, stick or twist. We stuck and we lost.
"B&W - How is avb our most successful manager???" His win percentage stats. Had this very debate elsewhere with an idiot who labelled a table of them as "incredible statistics" , when in fact in statistical terms they were quite unremarkable (more fairly insignificant) .
can't disagree with much of that Spurmey, but the extra distance to Europa games and the Thurs-Sunday game changes seem to make a real difference. I don't know why, but it affects everyone. Liverpool and Newcastle are having a much better season with no Europa this year. Look at Newcastle over the last couple of years. They've sturggled massively to cope with both. Swansea, although managing ok, look like they are finding it a strain too. It's not like the Europa is really more demanding on no. of games either. If you make it to the final you only play 1 more than the CL. But something about that competition seems to have a massive affect on everyones season.
Please tell me this is a joke. Do these people not understand maths?!?! Win one in two and have a very impressive 50% win rate. You cannot use this ratio comparing a manager who has only been in charge of half as many games as another.
"Blah blah Harry, blah blah AVB, for me it all boils down to one summer, stick or twist. We stuck and we lost." Short of ENIC doing a bit of Sugga Daddy FC, could the club actually afford to "twist" in summer 2010 or Jan 2011 ?? I remember the Arry and Levy in Spain nonsense (Aguero etc) , but had that down as not financially credible and just a PR "at least we tried" .
"Please tell me this is a joke. Do these people not understand maths?!?!" They understand maths (I guess) . But not basic statistics (specifically inferring things from data sets with fundamentally different population sizes) .
Not quite Roo, Chelsea at the first time of asking in the EL went through the thing and won it...and finished in a CL spot.
"Chelsea at the first time of asking in the EL went through the thing and won it...and finished in a CL spot." Just to clarify this objectively (to deal with any "yes but" ) : - They didn't have the group stage travelling to God knows where, nor the default sunday PL games - But they still had to deal with 5 KO ties at the business end of the PL season (and the Sundays therein)
I'm just speculating as i don't have access to THFC books (and wouldn't look if i did so don't forward them) but assuming you get through the quali round you have a big windfall of cash coming from the CL. Its that money we should have gambled with. Might only have been £30m, but back then it could have made all the difference. So we should have gambled on beating Young Boys and bought in a £20m striker and another decent player too. Same quality striker now will cost £30-40m which we just don't have because we blew our chance to be CL regulars
I don't have time to do the analysis but I would have thought that a sample of 54 PL games was likely to give a decent result since our average manager probably lasts less than 120 games. On the hypothesis that AVB was a more successful manager than Redknapp based on this criterion alone, what is the confidence in that
"On the hypothesis that AVB was a more successful manager than Redknapp based on this criterion alone, what is the confidence in that" If the population sample is games, then the population size for Redknapp = 3 x AVB. Just on that alone I would not be at all confident in calling it so.
As discussed before you can't really use his win stats as a way to view him as a success, especially as Redknapps stats are based on a longer period so if Avb was manager for the same period judging by the recent decline in results, the stats would gradually drop as AVb was out of his depth in the end and he simply wasn't good enough to manage spurs for the same length of period as Redknapp,. He failed. say out loud if you need it to sink in "Avb is a failure". When Redknapp joined the club, he joined us when we where in the bottom three. When Avb joined us, Redknapp had just left the club in top four. So if you offset both squads by the personnel and then the quality of the squad, you can balance out positives and negatives but overall Redknapp showed a progression, he took us from being top four contenders, to top four finishes twice. Avb took us from being top four, to finishing outside the top four and having a higher points finish doesn't tell the full picture as under Avb we was a one man team, under Redknapp we was an actual team. for the majority of last season the team played poorly and Bale won games, that isn't a way to praise a manager for his great "team" performance. Under Redknapp we played as a Team, understand, 11 men, who either played superbly or poorly but there was no one man show, it was a combination of many players who created an exciting and roller-coaster ride which we all enjoyed,, that is success (for our targets), finishing top four and them superb European nights at the lane.
"I'm just speculating as i don't have access to THFC books (and wouldn't look if i did so don't forward them) but assuming you get through the quali round you have a big windfall of cash coming from the CL." The problem you got is that when you see the accounts for 2011, the 40m odd Euros the CL brought in got more or less swallowed up by land purchase relating to new WHL, and the increase in the wage bill from the season before. But your basic premise is sound, and the one issue I really have with ENIC. Specifically : Given Joe Lewis effectively made his fortune on one of the great financial gambles ever taken, was pumping say 20m odd quid into Spurs for NEW STRIKER etc, such a big deal. We are not talking about the 100s of millions that Chelsky and Citeh spent on transfer/wage fees either.
Lewis lost a billion quid on his Bear Stearns investment in 2007-8, so that may have factored in to his period of austerity.
"Lewis lost a billion quid on his Bear Stearns investment in 2007-8, so that may have factored in to his period of austerity." So that reduced him to his last billion eh. <poverty>
Spot on as always Boss. For me the buck stops with Levy now whichever way you look at it. Hindsight is a wonderful thing and looking back, you have to ask what on earth was he thinking firing our most successful manager in 20 years, only to replace him with a guy fired by Chelsea after literally weeks in the job. And this is what annoys me the most… Levy is still in a job for firing the guy he hired, based on his own decision making and ego. Only in football can you have that kind of logic running an organisation. Makes no sense on any level.
Fla, unfortunately Levy is successful in what hes been asked to do by Lewis. or what they have marked down as success. I know this is sad to think but does anyone believe Lewis is sat at home actually dreaming of spurs winning the title? No chance! Thats the difference between us and other clubs which are backed by rich owners. Chelsea & Man City have owners who are at times little kids wanting to see their team win trophies. WIth us, we're a business, in the end thats the most important aspect and that is why Levy is successful and is the right man for the Job, for ENIC.
