Just hope the race lives up to the hype. For viewing purposes hope we see a number of them with chance going over the last and one of them winning by a head/ Short head.
You know your apples and your oranges Joe there's no doubt about it. I tend to think you're factually correct with the above statement but I'm a hoper, a dreamer and I just want to know what you base this on? Is it simple mathematics that the Champ will be 10 next year? Is it is his comeback because I was really disappointed by it too? I think you're right in what you say but I still remember Punchestown when he laughed at Rock on Ruby looking as good as ever and still think his 90% level (if he's at that) MAY still be good enough but the New One does worry the hell out of him even though everyone knows a prime Hurricane would have beat him easily?
The fact this flat bred was running in flat listed races as a 2yo and is still going strong at the top level over hurdles as a 9/10yo is probably quite remarkable, hes been defying nature I think and has probably got away with it due to lack of serious competition and hard races in the last few years. Only a small percentage of his races have been much more than gallops and thats why he has lasted so long. For me the Fly was at his best between 5-7, electric as a novice, would have won Go Natives Supreme on the bridle if their earlier race in Ireland meant anything and when consistently beating Solwhit on heavy ground during that period. He missed Cheltenham twice during his peak years and has still managed to win two Champions in the next 3 years. He just doesnt have that electric zip that he used to but got away with it in last seasons Champion. With another year on his back, and the toughest bunch of up and coming contenders he has ever had to face, I think he will struggle to win. Im sure he will still run to a high level, but judging by his first run back this year I have to have the opinion that its catching up with him and he is on the downgrade. The New One in comparison, has that electricity and is just coming into his prime years. I liked him for this race since after Cheltenham/Aintree last year, but his performance today was the best yet to my eye regardless of the form or how the race was run. By the time March comes, its going to take a serious performance to stop him and I just dont think Hurricane Fly has it in him. JMO tho, even the master gets it wrong on occasions.
Age of Champion Hurdle winners. 5yo - 10 6yo - 29 7yo - 20 8yo - 8 9yo - 7 10yo-2 11yo-2 Tells you everything you need to know about this test. 2 mile hurdlers are at their most electric between 5-7, generally, with exceptions of course, they lose the zip after that and the Fly is coming up against 2 or 3 very zippy ones at peak zippiness at much the wrong stage of his career. The New One just screams he will be running his best Champion Hurdle this season, what he is just now, this season, he will never in his life again be more suited to the test.
Hard to argue with any of that Joe, I'd agree with you pretty much throughout. I guess its maybe just Kauto Stars massive victories when nearly everyone, myself included, thought he was done but look at his last 2 victories as an 11 year old. Unbelievable. The main difficulty Hurricane Fly has of course is that he's trying to do it over the minimum trip which is where the speed is needed most and it's the thing that diminishes with age. Ron / Oddy any chance you nice chaps could copy Masters above comments into the Champion Hurdle thread? He's made pretty compelling cases about the chance of New One and Fly.
Fingers crossed. Tent has a mega chance at Kempton- if ever a track was made for him that is it. However TNO at Cheltenham is a different ballgame.
If your on TNO at big prices you might as well lump on MTOY at Kempton, then.. Mtoy wins, Happy days collect winnings and TNO will still have every chance of reversing form at Cheltenham. TNO wins, Must be the second coming. Shorter price for Churdle and will bolt up in it. Neither win, Surely not!!
I respect the opinions chaps but don't see a single piece of form for The New One that suggests he'll win the Champion Hurdle - and as I've said I did back TNO after last seasons Cheltenham at 8/1 for this seasons race. I just don't see why he's going to beat the Fly et al and why The Fly is conclusively on the downgrade.
Much of the value squeezed out of the market already BUT Paddy Power still going 13/2 Hurricane Fly and that is a monster e/w price. He is still my idea of the most likely winner and I cannot see him out of the first 3. Come Leopardstown he will be much fitter than on seasonal debut and if he lowers Our Conor's colours (assuming that one turns up) he will be cut to 4/1 or 9/2. Given they found a pulled muscle after his poor showing in the Fighting Fifth, Melodic Rendezvous at 40/1 might be worth a couple of quid e/w. He is much better than that and if the Champion Hurdle cuts up he could well sneak a place (especially with enhanced place terms). A real left field one - what about Simonsig? I really don't know what connections are planning with him this season, but I've always though he looked more at home over hurdles and his Neptune form looks solid with Felix Younger and Monksland backing it up. He's certainly come up the hill ................... and there is no point taking on the Black Aeroplane. If he stays over fences its probably the Ryanair, which will take a lot of winning.
Bit early in Simonsigs jumping career for that Oddy, surely. I mean he won the Arkle in his last race! I think a step up in distance will see him even better, and if i remember rightly they found some problems with him after the Arkle too. Hopefully he'll be out soon.
Form is worthless in jumps, you cant read class, but you can see it. His effortless 10 and 6l beatings of Rock On Ruby and Zarkandar compare quite favourably with the Fly in form terms anyway, considering he was never out of second gear achieving it. Hes a stonecold jailcase, he will be going so easily 2 out he will make Hurricane Fly look like a plodder, and I will be on to quote this message after the race I will be putting everything I can afford on if he gets there on the day because these top class goodthings at good prices dont come along very often, even if he beats My Tent easily at kempton he will be at least 9/4 cos its his first Champion and Hurricane Fly is there.
They were totally different race conditions but even if you concede that what about the Neptune and AFC's AB and reappearance lead you to think he's a jail case?
Have taken abit of the 13/2 e/w for The Fly! He is due to be out again this weekend and after he bolts up that price will be long gone!!!
Whats At Fishers Cross got to do with it? He beat The New One last season in bottomless ground that he loves in a stamina test and went on to win the two top staying novice hurdles easily. He would probably have won first time this year if he didnt make that race ending blunder, even after hardly jumping a hurdle the whole way. Regards The New One, look at the way he moved between the last two and how he jumped the last at Kempton, and look at how he quickened up the hill at Cheltenham last time, there is not a horse in training who can live with this beast over 2 miles just now. When asked, he moves with so much purpose and power its unbelievable, hes a freak, I think he is the best 2 miler ive seen, and after seeing Hurricane Fly at his best, I didnt think I would be saying that anytime soon. I think he is a different animal from last season as a novice, and he wasnt bad then, he looks like the top dog now.
Loving this thread Woolly The Fly will be out again Dec 29th at Leopardstown Not one to put everything on the clock but The New One's time in winning the International wasn't exactly sensational on good ground (slow by 10 seconds). Don't have the sectionals but the overall time isn't exactly blinding. None of hs runs to date were especially fast.
Oh ok thanks oddy thought I heard he was out this weekend- must have misheard it!! Looking at the times it was slower than last years champion hurdle but cant find recent sectional times anywhere for MTOY Or Hurricane Fly!! GRRRR!!
