You know your apples and your oranges Joe there's no doubt about it. I tend to think you're factually correct with the above statement but I'm a hoper, a dreamer and I just want to know what you base this on? Is it simple mathematics that the Champ will be 10 next year? Is it is his comeback because I was really disappointed by it too? I think you're right in what you say but I still remember Punchestown when he laughed at Rock on Ruby looking as good as ever and still think his 90% level (if he's at that) MAY still be good enough but the New One does worry the hell out of him even though everyone knows a prime Hurricane would have beat him easily?
I hold my hands up. Got Johns Spirit totally wrong. There's no where near as much wiggle room in his mark as I expected. Gutted. Quite a costly mistake.
The fact this flat bred was running in flat listed races as a 2yo and is still going strong at the top level over hurdles as a 9/10yo is probably quite remarkable, hes been defying nature I think and has probably got away with it due to lack of serious competition and hard races in the last few years. Only a small percentage of his races have been much more than gallops and thats why he has lasted so long. For me the Fly was at his best between 5-7, electric as a novice, would have won Go Natives Supreme on the bridle if their earlier race in Ireland meant anything and when consistently beating Solwhit on heavy ground during that period. He missed Cheltenham twice during his peak years and has still managed to win two Champions in the next 3 years. He just doesnt have that electric zip that he used to but got away with it in last seasons Champion. With another year on his back, and the toughest bunch of up and coming contenders he has ever had to face, I think he will struggle to win. Im sure he will still run to a high level, but judging by his first run back this year I have to have the opinion that its catching up with him and he is on the downgrade. The New One in comparison, has that electricity and is just coming into his prime years. I liked him for this race since after Cheltenham/Aintree last year, but his performance today was the best yet to my eye regardless of the form or how the race was run. By the time March comes, its going to take a serious performance to stop him and I just dont think Hurricane Fly has it in him. JMO tho, even the master gets it wrong on occasions.
Age of Champion Hurdle winners. 5yo - 10 6yo - 29 7yo - 20 8yo - 8 9yo - 7 10yo-2 11yo-2 Tells you everything you need to know about this test. 2 mile hurdlers are at their most electric between 5-7, generally, with exceptions of course, they lose the zip after that and the Fly is coming up against 2 or 3 very zippy ones at peak zippiness at much the wrong stage of his career. The New One just screams he will be running his best Champion Hurdle this season, what he is just now, this season, he will never in his life again be more suited to the test.
Hard to argue with any of that Joe, I'd agree with you pretty much throughout. I guess its maybe just Kauto Stars massive victories when nearly everyone, myself included, thought he was done but look at his last 2 victories as an 11 year old. Unbelievable. The main difficulty Hurricane Fly has of course is that he's trying to do it over the minimum trip which is where the speed is needed most and it's the thing that diminishes with age. Ron / Oddy any chance you nice chaps could copy Masters above comments into the Champion Hurdle thread? He's made pretty compelling cases about the chance of New One and Fly.
