Very interesting thought Bob ......................... I'm also leaning towards a young, up and coming chaser. I just have no idea who at the moment - maybe Al Ferof? The King George and Lexus will tell us plenty ............... Whatever you say about SDCs race today, and indeed the performance of Bobs Worth at Haydock, connections of both horses woud have wished for a different start to the season and they will be busy working out what to do next.
Scrubbing the last run out, if Harry Topper sorts out his jumping he would be a big price and capable of a place too. And same can be said for Katenko too, massive engine but made plenty of mistakes on the way round, softer ground obviously would have helped a big deal also.
Iâd subscribe to this theory. Am also now leaning to the view that perhaps last terms CGC and its protagonists werenât really âall thatâ and deffo not at the level that we maybe thought at the time and even did as recently as a few weeks ago. Bobs Worth is a quality horse but is he really worthy of a perch of 180?!? As I say heâs exceptionally good but 180 is a stratospheric rating.
Great discussion Bob. Remember how hard it is to win back to back Gold Cups- Kauto and Denman even. Don't write anyone off just yet. Sir Des Champs will be a lot fresher this year. Antepost angle at this stage has to be AL FEROF 18/1 exchanges. Real value, superb Cheltenham record, and looks better now he has gone beyond 2 miles. John Hales wants to go that route. Sir Des Champs will need to restore a bit of his confidence. They say Lexus is the plan but I prefer a tilt at the King George as I think he has the attributes.
A big reason I'm thinking it is the complete dross they ran against in their RSA/Jewson year. They were largely poor fields that they bossed. Last year they would have run much harder races almost the whole way through the season. That step up in intensity could harm them in later years. It would not be the first time. Sir Des Champs - another Mullins chaser of great potential who's fallen. I wouldn't back him ever again over a fence. Willie's a great trainer of hurdlers but his record with potentially brilliant chasers is poor. Cooldine, Boston Bob and Mikael jump to the front of my mind. Even Quel Esprit could have done so much more over fences. That record alone leads me to think there's too much risk with his chasers. SDC will always be in grade ones so his jumping and confidence will be tested every time he runs. There's no easy races for him now.
I too started to question the strength of last years Gold Cup a bit after having watched Long Run, Bob's Worth, Giant Bolster etc not exactly enhance it which led me to take a speculative ante-post punt on Lord Windermere prior to the Hennesey However I think the RSA form is perhaps 'wrong' as I'm suspecting now the best horse in it was actually Unioniste and that perhaps he simply had an 'off day' last March. At the minute though I don't have a clue who wins the Gold Cup. I liked Dynaste's chances strongly for the Betfair (again as I queried the Gold Cup form slightly) and he run very well in it, again suggesting there are some novices last year who will break into the Gold Cup echelon. Al Ferof is another who almost seems like a second season novice having had only the one run last year due to injury. It may well be too early to write off little Bob's Worth in it though! He's much better round Cheltenham and perhaps his win last year is still underrated...
Could we maybe see another dour stayer come up through the handicap route a la Synchronised? Has anyone heard anything of Last Instalment? Fenton said he was hoping to have him out around Christmas time in an interview beginning of October.
Oddy, both he and Dunguib are being readied for January. Love both of them but as we know all too well with Invictus, its bloody hard to get them to stay sound after a long time out. Amazed that Dunguib is not ancient .feels like he is!
Update 27th December: The King George at Kempton on Boxing Day provided yet another memorable, dramatic finish. As at Haydock, Cue Card jumped boldly from the front and, coming into the home straight for the final time, he looked all over the winner, with his only serious rival left in the race, Silviniaco Conti, beginning to look ragged under Noel Fehily. Cue Card pinged the 3rd last and opened up a lead of 6 lengths over Silviniaco Conti, who jumped tiredly to the left. Approaching the 2nd last, Joe Tizzard steadied his mount and they met it on a perfect stride, soaring over still 3 or 4 lengths in front of Silviniaco Conti. But on the run to the final fence Cue Card did his Crisp impression, started treading water and was suddenly a sitting duck for Silviniaco Conti, who was finding his 2nd wind under a strong drive from Fehily. Silviniaco Conti powered past Cue Card, winged the last and won 3.5 lengths. As with Flemenstar in the Lexus last year, it was patently clear that Cue Card's tank emptied and I couldn't back him for the Cheltenham Gold Cup at any price, no way will he get the trip. Ryanair must be his race at the festival. Silviniaco Conti, on the other hand, looks to hold an outstanding chance of making arrears for last season, where he fell when still travelling powerfully. He is now vying for favouritism with Bobs Worth at 4/1 with Sir Des Champs at around 6/1 and Cue Card 8/1. Bobs Worth and Sir Des Champs meet in the Lexus tomorrow. With Bobs Worth looking particularly out of sorts at Haydock in the Betfair, Willie Mullins Sir Des Champs suddenly looks like a nice bit of value at 6/1 for the Blue Riband. If he wins the Lexus convincingly he will be pushing for favouritism, and I've taken a bit of 6/1 about him today.
I agree about Cue Card Oddy. A great pity as he jumped impeccably all the way round and looked as though he would be coming home a very impressive winner. If he had powered away to victory I would have looked no further for the Gold Cup winner. But if he empties out over 3 miles at Kempton he has no chance up the final climb at Cheltenham. It was soft (heavy in one place) so his only hope may be that the ground is less testing at Cheltenham. Certainly no ante post bet, as you say, at any price.
3 interesting entries, made yesterday, to my eye, for very differing reasons are: (i) Theatre Guide. Are the owners of Cue Card really mulling over running this one as a pacemaker for their number 1 hope, as is being rumoured?!? (ii) Medermit. My long term regular readers will recall that I was vociferous, and I do mean vociferous, in urging connections to run this horse in the 2012 CGC as I thought he would have an outstanding chance (and was on at 50’s NRNB). However, they played it safe and he went for the Ryanair and finished 3rd. Although as the 1-2 in the big ‘un, that term, were Synchronised and The Giant Bolster I still maintain they should have adopted a modicum of ambition. Hasn’t run for 21 months but is now back in full work, in the county, and this time will if everything goes to plan run in the CGC. Due to ‘prep’ either at the end of this month or early next. 100’s is available. (iii) Monbeg Dude. The ‘flagship’ (his word not mine) tipster in ‘The Weekender’ continues to insist if the word ‘soft’ appears in the going descriptor then this horse has an each-way chance in the race. However, he won’t commit to the bet due to connections seemingly wishing to bypass Cheltenham and head to the Grand National. This entry at least though confirms they are considering the CGC. Top priced 80/1.
For those of you on Twitter, if you follow Racenews (@RacenewsService) they are tweeting links to the press releases as each set of entries is announced.
Timeform's View Cheltenham Gold Cup Preview: Plus ça change... Following the initial entries for the Gold Cup on the 14th of March, Keith Melrose selects Timeform's idea of the likeliest winner as well as a couple of wild cards... It's all very different from 10 months ago. Following the 2013 Gold Cup, it was tempting to herald a new era of staying chasers- perhaps silver to Kauto Star and Denman's golden one- with Bobs Worth, Sir des Champs, Long Run and other, smaller players set to compete for top honours time and again over the coming seasons. As 2014 starts we find ourselves in quite different times. Long Run seems long gone, Sir des Champs has suffered a non-starter of a season and Bobs Worth's mask of unerring reliability has slipped, if only just a little. There are also Gold Cup challenges which have come and gone in the space of just the last few weeks. Cue Card emerged as a genuine contender when storming home in the Betfair Chase before faltering close home in the King George. Irrespective of the trigger for that collapse, it doesn't bode well for the Gold Cup which famously takes so much more getting than the King George- just ask One Man or Florida Pearl. As it stands with doubts over Sprinter Sacre's wellbeing, Cue Card's connections would probably be better advised to go the One Man route and tackle the Champion Chase. Al Ferof, like One Man owned by John Hales, also has his participation in doubt after a somewhat disappointing showing at Kempton. Al Ferof most likely wasn't beaten by the trip, though it was his first serious test following an extended lay-off through injury so much will rest on his next start, mooted to be the Denman Chase at Newbury. Silviniaco Conti, the tragic hero of last year's Gold Cup, gained partial compensation when benefiting from Cue Card's Kempton stutter and is now second favourite (behind Bobs Worth) for full redemption. We can now be confident that he'll stay, a view that wasn't held universally when he came down three out last March, though did the King George tell us all that much more? Visual impressions suggest that, all other things being equal, Silviniaco Conti is still inferior to Cue Card: greater stamina and a guileful ride from Noel Fehily were the difference on Boxing Day. Before the King George, with his stamina not generally perceived to be a problem and Bobs Worth's wellbeing still in the balance, Cue Card could be backed at not much below [9.0], so why should Silviniaco Conti be [4.7] now? This is all a roundabout way of saying that Bobs Worth still provides the best option among the market leaders. The bare form of his recent Lexus Chase win was far removed from what will be required to win the Gold Cup, but that race was an away fixture for the champion in every sense of the word: a steadily-run three miles at a track with a relatively short straight for him to unwind on. Bobs Worth's Leopardstown win, no matter how workmanlike and irrespective of what finished uncomfortably close up, can be taken as a fairly positive indication that he is as strong as last year. Should that hold true, anything above [3.0] for the Gold Cup is fair. Tipping the favourite is easy. The point made right at the top of the article still stands, though: the top bracket isn't as impermeable as it once looked. We can therefore look a bit further down the betting for a couple of long-priced types that may yet have a say. Bare form is a less-than-pressing consideration here too, as it really ought to be when looking beyond the obvious. For example, those skimming results would see Boston Bob as a Festival flop, being a beaten favourite in 2012 and a faller in last year's RSA; of course, there's more to it than that. Boston Bob was the likeliest winner when he came down at the last in the RSA and had beaten eventual victor Lord Windermere under less suitable conditions the time before. Talking of unsuitable conditions, Boston Bob made his reappearance over Christmas, in a hurdle race over two and a half miles. He dotted up, admittedly against inferior opposition but showing more than enough zest to suggest reported problems earlier in the campaign won't have a lasting effect. Untried over the Gold Cup trip but bound to thrive over it, Boston Bob can be expected to show high-class form given the chance. We should deal with the Thursday question before we finish with Boston Bob. It has been reported that he would be aimed at the World Hurdle. However, with Sir des Champs now out there is no obvious Gold Cup challenge from the Willie Mullins yard, while indications at the time of writing nominate Annie Power's most likely target as the World Hurdle. It's not at all difficult to see thoughts graduating towards a Gold Cup tilt for Boston Bob. 'Which Festival race?' is less of a concern with Katenko. He was given a seemingly ambitious entry in last year's Gold Cup before colic ended his season. On two ostensibly disappointing starts this winter he has gone some of the way to justifying the faith. First up in the Hennessy off a BHA mark of 157 (Bobs Worth won the 2012 renewal rated 160, incidentally), Katenko tanked through the race until coming down at the fourteenth and he still seemed in need of the run when finishing a tired fourth at Aintree a week later. The feeling is that Katenko is yet to reveal the full extent of his ability. Depending on where and when he turns up next, he's capable of the sort of trial that would see current odds of [80.0] dry up very quickly. We should have known last March not to get carried away with the new breed of staying chasers- the course of the Gold Cup rarely does run smooth. Only greats like Best Mate and Kauto Star hang around and Bobs Worth has all the attributes to one day be mentioned in the same breath. However very few can continually produce their best: see the repeated attempts to get a satisfactory match-up between Kauto Star and Denman, two of the most reliable stayers of their day. For that reason, we're advising you add a bit of kick to your ante-post portfolio by including Boston Bob and Katenko, both good examples of the sort of horses that can take an unexpectedly prominent role in the climax of the Festival's feature race. Recommendations: 2pts win Bobs Worth @ [3.25] in the Cheltenham Gold Cup 1pt win Boston Bob @ [30.0] & Katenko @ [80.0] in the Cheltenham Gold Cup
Pricewise has this morning put up Al Ferof for the race – 1 pt win at 16’s. His ‘stable mate’ though, the ante-post lad from the Weekender, put up the same horse in the CGC some 6 days ago at 20/1! Old boy Pricewise has had his thunder somewhat taken there, methinks. Not huge movement in the markets yet as a result of this ‘advice’. Although is as low as 12’s in a few places.
