Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 5yo: 0-1-2 6yo: 0-2-7 7yo: 1-2-16 8yo: 2-5-22 9yo: 3-7-43 10yo: 2-2-33 11yo: 0-6-19 12yo+: 2-0-14 7 of 10 winners were aged 8 to 10 though that age bracket accounted for 66.5% of total runners. The only horse aged below 8 to win this since 2003 was Silver Birch who subsequently won the Grand National. Only winner aged over 10 was Hello Bud in 2010 & 2012. Prior to his first win the race, he had finished 5th in previous season’s Becher Chase and also that year's Grand National. Weight (Win-Place-Runners) Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 5-11-71 Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 5-13-84 There are no very strong trends on the weights. Top Weight: F541FP155P (2-1-10) Horses racing from out of the handicap: 2-5-27 Horses racing from 7lbs or more out of the handicap: 0-1-8 Official Ratings Horses rated 143 to 157: 3-5-19 Horses rated 127 to 142: 5-15-104 Horses rated 112 to 126: 2-5-33 The last 8 winners were racing off marks between 130 to 148. Recent/Past Form 10 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed start 10 of 10 winners had won over 2M4F+ 8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ 7 of 10 winners had run in the last 45 days 10 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut in a NH race 7 of 10 winners (last 5) had run in at least 13 chases (3 exceptions trained by Paul Nicholls) 7 of 10 winners had previously run in at least 8 handicap chases (all 3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls) 7 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases (2 exceptions were Hello Bud who won it in 2010 & 2012) 6 of 10 winners were 4th or 5th season chasers (3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls & other was Hello Bud winning it for second time) 8 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or higher 5 of 10 winners had run over the National fences (3 of 5 exceptions were trained by Nicholls, 1 had won the Cork National and 1 had completed the last 2 Irish Nationals) Other Races 4 of 10 winners ran in that year's Grand National, finishing F5B7 2 of 10 winners ran in previous year’s Becher Chase, finishing 5U 3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Paddy Power Chase in December, finishing 042 3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the previous year's Troytown, finishing 764 2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Leopardstown Handicap Chase, finishing 44 2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Irish Grand National, finishing P8 2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Pat Taaffe Handicap Chase, finishing 02 3 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Haydock Grand National Trial, finishing P8P 3 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Classic Chase, finishing 115 Racing Style 8 of 10 winners raced prominently with leaders throughout Trainers Paul Nicholls (3-5-16) has trained the winner three times in the past 9 years and had the runner-up in 4 of the other 6. Nigel Twiston-Davies (2-0-9) saddled Hello Bud to win it in 2010 & 2012. Alan King (1-0-3) & Jonjo O’Neill (1-0-4) have each won the race once in the past 10 years. Peter Bowen (0-3-13) has saddled 3 places in past 10 years. Venetia Williams (0-1-1), Tom George (0-1-2), Sue Smith (0-1-4) & David Pipe (0-1-5) have each trained one placed finisher since 2003. Irish based trainers (3-2-26) have a good recent record, having won it 3 times in last 8 years. Price No strong trends on prices, though 7 of the last 10 winners have gone off at 10/1 or shorter. Favourites (2-2-11) have won 2 renewals in past 10 years & show a level stakes profit of 3.50. Summary: Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: - Aged 8 to 10 - Officially rated 130 to 148 - Finished in the first 5 on last completed start - Has run in the last 45 days - Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F+ (ideally over 3M+) - Run at least 13 times over fences - Run in 10+ handicap chases (but won no more than 2) - 4th or 5th season chaser (or trained by Paul Nicholls) - Previous form over the National fences is a positive - Ran in Haydock Grand National Trial, Classic Chase and/or Grand National - Tends to race prominently - Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nigel Twiston-Davies Backed 2 in this, Across The Bay 12/1 & Mr Moonhine 33/1 both E/W Runners and form Best of luck all
Interesting stats Number One Given the PN preponderance in this race I'm surprised you didn't opt for Join Together, 2nd in this last year, beaten a neck by Hello Bud. He will surely strip fitter for his first run, and has 1lb less to carry. But a hell of a tricky puzzle to solve - hats off to you if you do
I've got it narrowed down to 4, but **** knows how i'm going to turn them 4 into 1! Walkon 14/1 Bostons Angel 14/1 Roberto Goldback 16/1 Chance Du Roy 16/1
Dunowen Point's 4th behind Trio D'alene in the Topham is now looking very tasty form indeed after Henderson's horse won the Hennessy last weekend. Donald McCain's charge is usually pretty straight first time out and can get involved here off the same mark as his Topham run. He's the favourite at 6/1 tonight but that looks a relatively safe e/w bet given that few of these have experience over the National fences. Of the others, Sue Smith's Gansey goes well here and could go close if putting it all in.
"Of the others, Sue Smith's Gansey goes well here and could go close if putting it all in. " I am all over that one too tomorrow.
Yeah, not too bad. Started new job and rather busy, worst thing is I have no 3g at work so can't watch horse racing at the office. Thats a question I am putting to the next interview panel I sit in front of!!! Had a good week on the horses (even if Heis did me for the win purpose today with his Yob) and looking forward to Cheltenham once more. How are things?
Swimming along nicely, but not much time for the horses at the moment - busy at work and at home, usually only find a bit of time Saturday for a proper study and a wee dabble. Frightening how quickly the kids grow up, and how quickly time seems to fly by. I'll be 45 next week but don't feel it - still managing to crack in 150 miles cycling each week, which keeps me in good trim. Mind you, I have to do it, otherwise my back stiffens up like buggery. Ahhh the pleasures of getting old(er)
I have it down to two at present. Not sure if I will have a bet though. Swing Bill who normally runs well here and goes well for Conor O'Farrell and Wyck Hill. Strange jockey booking but Tinkler is an able jockey and I think this horse has a touch of class. Could take to the fences seeing as the trainer has banged on about this one being thought of as a future National horse!
**** me I was drunk last night - these are both running in the Grand Sefton, not the Becher In the Becher, I am very interested in Bostons Angel on his debut for the Pipe yard. This fella won an RSA Chase on good ground a couple of years ago - he hasn't won since then but if anyone can exploit a mark of 142 then it is his new handler.
