"Soothsayer" is the right word. All these predictions are based on people's assessment of a team's relative strength or weakness. But as I've just been saying on my "Luck" thread, where skill levels are not that different, fortune is as least as important in determining outcomes. We need to preface it all with "Other things -- particularly luck -- being equal" ...........
Palace's win at Hull revives them a little to 1/6 on.Sunderland slip back into odds on territory at 10/11.Fulham's home defeat see them move to 7/4.Hull also pull in sharply to 2/1.Norwich are 5/2 and Cardiff's point at Man U sees them move out to3/1.The Hammers still look generous odds,5/1.Stoke having benefitted from massive slices of luck against both Swansea and Sunderland are 8/1.That looks long to me given the state of their team.That completes the eight teams that I expect the relegated clubs to come from.Villa could possibly get embroiled but personally I doubt it. We are beginning to see the easing of the "Two cut adrift" situation that was beginning to develop.Palace and Sunderland are just a single win off the pack now.Next weekend sees West ham v Fulham,a game that may have a massive influence on the outcome of the next phase.
hammers at 5/1 is indeed generous CT, but they have moved in from 10/1. They looked pretty retched at home to chelsea. their game against fulham looks like a 0-0. also with us playing palace it's a biggie at the bottom. From watching MOTD and reading the Hull board, they seem to be on bad form at the moment.
Aston Villa v Sunderland Cardiff City v Arsenal Everton v Stoke City Hull v Liverpool West Ham v Fulham The Palace match is a real opportunity for City given those fixtures, especially when it's Liverpool and WBA away in the next two matches. Crunch time for sure!
on the radio this morning that had a stat (yes more stats!) that since the inception of the premier league, if i remember i heard this correctly, out of the teams with less than one point per game after 12 games, 2 of those had been relegated (each season) and in half the cases, the other team was one of those with less than 1pt per game. So, statistically we are looking at 2 from Norwich, West Ham, Fulham, Sunderland and Palace, and then a 50% chance the third place will come from those five, and a 50% chance it will come from the likes of Stoke, Hull, Villa or Cardiff.
Whilst I would never dismiss a stat I would nevertheless counsel caution on this one for the following reason.If you look at last season after 12 games then QPR were pretty much a cert on 4 points and there were several others well adrift of the point per game level.This year is a little different because we have a degree of bunching with four points covering 13th to 18th.We were three points better off but if the computer had given us away to Palace the weekend we went to Citeh it seems very likely we would be in 14th place on 14 points from 12 games.
CT, I agree, the teams I expect to be involved are anyone downwards from Villa, there isn't much between those 9 teams really. it's an interesting stat none the less.
I'd still include Cardiff and Hull in the mix, because promoted teams often do better in the first half of the season than the second. A lot will also depend on injuries for all the teams in the mix. I don't make any predictions until half the season has been played out and a larger number of games against all of the other sides is used to form the judgement.
Cardiff and Hull are definitely well in the mix, I fully expect Hull to be in the bottom tree by Christmas and to stay there for the most part of the rest of the season
I agree. Both Hull and Cardiff have limited resources and will find it difficult as the season plays out. Take Reading last season. they started with some good results and then faded heavily as the season went on.
rick, reading actually had a purple patch in jan and feb, remember le fondre kept scoring for them, and then faded badly, so i don't think that is strictly true.
I'm not entirely convinced of a Hull collapse.Stoke have so far enjoyed amazing luck with a certain penalty denied to WBA, one that wasn't given against Swansea and Wes Brown red carded after a spot on tackle.
You're right Max, but a lot of those were draws rather than wins and they definitely faded badly in the final third of the season (in spite of a management change). You could say the same about city under Lambert in the dismal 12 match run of 2 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses before the final draw at Arsenal and home win over Villa (when both were 'on the beach').
Is this beginning of a rerun of last season with Palace and Sunderland cut adrift with Fulham stuck in 18th this year's Wigan? We are now about to see the bottom three all with new management so whether there is actually a bounce associated with sacking the gaffer may be about to be revealed,or is not.From Cardiff in 17th up to Hull in 10th is covered by a mere four points and now includes Villa,WBA and Swansea,the latter two just a single point above Norwich.This in my opinion shows what rubbish the anti Hughton feeling is-nobody is calling for the sacking of Lambert,Clarke or Laudrup This weeks numbers: Palace 1/5 Sunderland 6/7 Fulham Evens Cardiff 3/1 Hull 3/1 Norwich 7/2 Stoke 6/1 West Ham 8/1 Villa 20/1 WBA 25/1 Swansea 40/1
Odds reflect people's feelings which are not entirely logical.I still think 8/1 for West Ham is way OTT.As are the odds for Villa,WBA and Swansea,certainly in a mathematical sense.IMO all those four should be halved.Hull is an unfashionable club though,a bit like us.
hull odds are werid, like CT says they are unfashionable. i don't think they will go down, they have 17 points already so should hit 20+ by Xmas easy. Bruce is doing a great job really.
Big game tonight Palace v West Ham.The Hammers need something from this.Their December fixtures are Liverpool and United away.Arsenal,Sunderland and WBA at home.
He is doing a great job, as I suspected he might do, however I still expect them to be right in the mix in the new year and I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised to see them in the bottom three come May, especially if the notoriously injury prone Huddlestone spends any significent time on the treatment table. They've got Arsenal and Swansea away this week, both very tough games and I can see them losing both that will make things look different by this time next week. They are only three points better off than we are at the moment. Didn't Blackpool have something like 25 points at Christmas the year they went down?
