Brendan’s Bottom Half Beatings

http://basstunedtored.com/2013/11/10/brendans-bottom-half-beatings/
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Liverpool cemented their place in the top four with a comprehensive 4-0 win over an abject Fulham side at Anfield on Saturday. The problem with such victories is that you inevitably have naysayers suggesting that the Reds should be winning such games as a matter of course, so what does it really prove?

Having looked at Liverpool’s record against the bottom half of the Premier League since 1992, I can confidently state that sweeping aside the strugglers consistently is far more difficult than you might think.

Liverpool have taken an average of 2.67 points per game from their six matches against the bottom half so far this season, and they’ve never had a better record across a full season in the Premier League era (and even since three points for a win came in, so some title winning sides are included there too).

Needless to say (though I will before someone else does!), it’s far too early in the season to assume that the Reds can finish the season with such a good record, but the following table of Liverpool’s bottom half record in the Premier League era illustrates how important or damaging it can be.

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A couple of things stand out for me. Firstly, the fact that the two seasons prior to Rodgers becoming Liverpool manager are in the bottom three illustrates that the Reds clearly had a significant issue with dispatching the also-rans before Brendan took charge.

At the other end of the table, we can see that 2008/09 saw Liverpool’s best full-season performance with regards to the bottom half. However, had the Reds won 2.67 points per game as they have so far in this campaign, then they’d have matched Manchester United’s ninety point haul, and won the league on goal difference.

Out of interest I have compiled the figures by manager since Gerard Houllier’s first full season in charge, to see how they compare, and also Liverpool’s complete record prior to 2012/13. I have amalgamated Hodgson and Dalglish’s figures (sorry, Kenny!) due to the small sample sizes involved.

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What we can see here is that if Liverpool maintain Rodgers’ form against the bottom half for the rest of this season, then it will provide a forty-five point platform for the push towards the top four (and if his form this season continues, then the Reds will bag fifty-three points from the lower half of the table; more than the whole 2011/12 season, remarkably).

In the interests of balance, we of course have to look at Rodgers’ record against the top half of the table, and there is clearly room for improvement here. That said, whilst his record this season of 1.40 points per game doesn’t sound great, it is better than Dalglish’s one full season, and three of the six Benitez seasons.

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Rodgers does not compare well against his predecessors, and is behind the club’s overall record in the Premier League prior to his appointment.

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To get up to the club’s average this season, which seems a reasonable benchmark to aim for, Rodgers will need to take twenty points from the remaining thirteen games, which is 1.54 per game; not too far above their 1.40 tally so far, in other words. With four of Liverpool’s next eight league fixtures against the teams who occupy the places four to seven in the table at the time of writing, then we should get an idea soon if this is possible in 2013/14 or not.

Of course, the most important thing of all is how many points you have in total at the end of the season, and who you take them off is largely irrelevant (aside from the difference that results against the teams next to you might have in a close table). But I think the above information at least shows that routine wins against strugglers like Fulham should not be underestimated nor taken for granted; they could have won Rafa the league, or kept Kenny in a job.

 

This wasn't as advertised on the tin.......thank god

 

good post Jimmy

for me it depends where we are come beginning of jan and who we can get in, as if we are still in the top 4 it will be easier to attract the quality of players for top 4 push.

we might still be ok if we are not in top 4 with world cup year, but no guarantees and we don't have European football to offer.

signs so far are positive, long may it continue.

 

Was expecting something more interesting from the title

Good article Jimmy, this is what utd did for years wasnt it?

What does FTS mean in the table by the way?

 

Great informative post. Much appreciated!

I haven't been Brendan's biggest fan to say the least, but I am starting to feel I was not just wrong about him, but bloody wrong

 

IIRC that season we won 23 out of 24 games against the bottom 12 sides, so an average of 2.92 points per game, and only won 5 out of 14 against the other top eight sides, with 1.43 points per game. So it was our form against the bottom sides that meant we were comfortable title winners in the end, despite not performing all that well in the 'big' games and only getting one win against the rest of the top four.

So like you say, don't knock the ability to pick up points against the bottom teams, as it often makes the difference between winners and also rans.

P.S. at the fact that Houllier has more PPG than Benitez against the top teams

 

Where's MFG...?

 

He'll be standing on his head to read that.



Good OP, btw.

 

It's like they say, beat the bottom half home and away and you've got yourself 60 points.

Then just need to find another 20 points from 18 games against top half for top 4 or 30 points for the title.

Easier said than done mind

 

That doesn't even need to be twenty, between ten and fifteen will probably do it. Eighty points would be second/third territory.

 

excellent work. when i dared repeat the mourinho addage (beat the bottom half home and away) and likened it to what paisley used to say about bread and butter etc i got lambasted.

The fact is the top 4 games come round and they can decided the title race but to be in a title race you must target winning these bottom half games every time.

I totaly agree with this and our worst performances of the year have been after internationals and we dropped points to newcastle and swansea (both bottom half IMO)

We must win the next 3 games, i am firmly convinced that we must do this and then got into christmas targeting two lesser sides there whilst hoping to pick up draws against the better sides.

 

That makes sense.

 

Arguably the top four games only ever decide the title race when your aren't winning the bottom half games every time.

Utd in 11/12 lost home and away to City, but if we hadn't lost to Blackburn or Wigan we'd still have won the league
Same in 09/10 - lost home and away to Chelsea but it was a ****ty 0-0 draw against Blackburn that was where we really lost the title
And as was said above, Liverpool doubled Utd in 08/09, but lost the league cos of too many draws against lower half sides
Even if you go back to Michael Thomas in 1990, I reckon there must've been games where Liverpool dropped points against unfancied teams which could have put them out of sight by that stage

 

You only get 3 points no matter who you beat.

 

Excellent post.

 

P.S. Great thread Jimmy, very well put together.


Nearly as good as Saint's post

 

I thought so, one of my more lucid moments.

 

True but its the opponent you stop from getting three points too that matters

 

Now you've gone and spoilt it.

 

#missionaccomplished