Found this article which I thought was fascinating. Really interesting idea to try and work out mathematically who looks like being the next big thing. I'm certainly going to be keeping an eye out for Tuscher and Kirchhofer over the next few years. Also surprising to see that Vettel doesn't have that spectacular a lower-formulae record, and Magnussen doesn't score too highly either. Sirotkin on the other hand, much to my surprise, actually does, so perhaps he's not as undeserving of a Sauber seat as I'd thought at first glance.
The only guy who I have seen in a lower formula and successfully predicted that they would become a champion was Hamilton. By chance I saw him at Doninigton Park in Formula Renault and he destroyed the field and was a cut above the rest. It's also one of the reasons I think he is older than he actually is because like many people I've been following his career for 10 years now because he had so much exposure from the British press at such an early stage in his career. But then I also once predicted that Tomas Enge, Antonio Pizzonia and Adam Carroll would be future champions! So I think it proves you only really know how good someone is until they are in the F1 environment, no amount of junior titles prepares you for the world of F1 look at Vettel who has a fairly modest record as you point out DH.
The only problem is that some of the F1 driver elects have access to past F1 cars which they practice with almost every week. Bianchi, Perez and Marciello are fine examples of this false perception that they're something special or destined for greatness in F1 when in fact it's because they have had major support with simulators, F1 trainers, f1 engineers in the junior series with them, and F1 miles which is a massive advantage over 95% of the field they're in. Nico's career was also done much differently to the likes of Vettel, Nico went through a carefully structured program set by Willi Webber to make sure he was prepared everytime he entered a new series while with Seb it was all about getting him prepared for F1 as quickly as possible. Most noticeable in 2006 when Vettel skipped German Formula 3 which was a preparation into Euroseries F3 which Hulk did + A1 GP that gave him ample experience with a Formula 1 engine + F1 chassis design. The one thing that separated them both was Schumacher was asked which current 'at the time' German driver had the most talent to make it in F1, he said Vettel was the most likely to become world champion and I believe nobody else was pointed out. Take this with a pinch of salt, Nico and Seb are roughly the same age, in 2007 Nico was entering Euroseries F3 with the best team unlike Vettel who joined with a bottom team and still did well. Vettel in comparison was already winning FR 3.5, in F1 'full time' and turning heads, with the nickname 'baby schumi', Hulk was still a nobody and in some respect still is when compared with Vettel today. Hulk lost to Rubens even with all that preparation and Vettel still remains undefeated at the moment when he gets the same kind of love in preparation. It's a well prepared future F1 driver Vs a very unprepared future F1 driver who had to adapt very quickly with his raw talent or be dropped. And if I was acting like a real Seb fanboy of old I would suggest Willi Webber and Hulk were ducking Vettel and Marko all through his junior career, just in case Vettel pummeled him and ended his racing career there and then.
So looking at past champions: well prepared F1 driver Vs unprepared F1 driver What have we seen in the past? Vettel - Red Bull and BMW backing Button - brought up through Williams but since then has been going on his own Hamilton - Brought up by McLaren and Mercedes Raikkonen - Picked up by Sauber as a young talent Alonso - Renault and Briatore Driver Dev Schumacher - brought into F1 via Mercedes
I'd say Schuey could be considered unprepared as he was pushed into Sportscars, so actual single seater experience wasn't huge prior to F1. His prep for his debut was a couple of hours at Silverstone in a Jordan (i beleive the first time he'd ever driven an F1 car?). If he was a Mercedes bitch then would they not have tried to put him into Sauber in 1993? At the time, it was H-HF that was considered the talented one of Mercs sportscar team!
yeah I was going to put him half and half. He may not have had the same prep as those after him but he was 'built' to be an F1 Champion. He was also lined up for McLaren too but his best chances were else where. I didn't mention any other champions prior to that point because I think this is the era that this point matters in.
This. Alonso could be considered not well prepared as well, he hadn't done a lot before his F1 debut, but he was well prepared for his Renault debut having done a season with Minardi and then a season as Renault test driver. I'd say being well prepared is having done a lot of F1 work before making your debut, including testing and simulator and development work. Bottas in my opinion, was well prepared despite coming in from GP3 because he'd had a couple of years with Williams and done a lot of miles on Fridays and in testing, whereas Kvyat isn't that well prepared despite coming from the same series because he has done hardly anything for Toro Rosso. Generally drivers aren't as well prepared as they used to be because of the testing ban; Vettel was able to stand in for Kubica and be competitive because he knew the car so well, but Grosjean struggled in 2009 because he was chucked in mid-season having not driven the car before, same with Alguersuari.
Yeah, Alonso was allowed to learn F1 experience out of the limelight with Minardi (where he hardly set the world alight with his results), but it gave him track time, experience etc so when he drove for Renault he had a lot of mileage under his belt so was on the pace straight away, even if like Vettel/Hamilton there were some serious faux-pax's as he got to grips with being at the front. Vettel (and Ricciardo if he gets a WDC) were both dropped into F1 with half-decent teams before going to RBR to get the glory. Hamilton was dropped straight into McLaren so arguably he had the most pressure of all of them as was expected to perform from day 1. Same will apply to Magnussen if he gets the McLaren drive next year as there is no where to hide if you drive for one of the elites.
I've had a look on Forix at the amount of F1 test laps our past and present F1 drivers have had. I can't be bothered to work out the number before they got into F1 but given when the ban came into force they should all have roughly the same number of days since then. Button: 112,250 km -- 2000-2013 Alonso: 90,362 km -- 2000-2013 Kimi: 80,437 km -- 2000-2013 Hamilton: 35,097 km -- 2005-2013 Vettel: 34,505 km -- 2005-2013 Compared to this years rookies: Bianchi: 6,529 km -- 2009-2013 Van der Garde: 5,932 km -- 2007-2013 Gutierrez: 5,485 km -- 2009-2013 Bottas: 5,140 km -- 2011-2013 Chilton: 3,939 km -- 2011-2013 Vettel and Hamilton well short of the other 3 past wdc's showing a sign of the times. Test days before first drive / win: Vettel: 15 days / 51 days Button: 17 days / 283 days Hamilton: 27 days / 32 days Kimi: 23 days / 89 days Alonso: 3 days! / 82 days
Wouldn't it be the case that the new era of the 'well-prepared future driver' is a consequence of the testing ban? I'd certainly argue that the only champions to fit Silver's criteria are Hamilton and Vettel. I'm not sure the Hulk vs. Seb argument works very well either, well, not entirely: for example, wouldn't Hulk be better prepared to drive new, different cars or to fit into new teams and optimise his performance quickly? I realise this is all hypothetical but part of Seb's phenomenal success must surely come from his being secure in the Red Bull set-up and the team's advantage of being able to design and develop things around a driver they have been able to groom (are we still allowed to say that?!) from green. I not saying this to diminish their achievements, after all, McLaren weren't able to manage a similar result with Lewis. But wouldn't it be likely that most of Seb's advantage would disappear if he changed teams?
