Sunday's Fortria Chase at Navan, run over 2 miles, has attracted a top class field headed by Tony Martin's new stable star, Flemenstar, who took the race last year (by 7 lengths from Big Zeb) when in the care of Peter Casey. Here the entries for this year's race with current prices from Boylesports: Flemenstar 8/11 Arvika Ligeonniere 4/1 Sanctuaire 6/1 Days Hotel 10/1 Toner D'Oudairies 10/1 Realt Dubh 16/1 Realt Mor 16/1 Dedigout 20/1 Lucky William 20/1 Rubert 100/1 The obvious starting point for the race is Flemenstar and whether Tony Martin has been able to bring him back to his brilliant best. In the first half of last season he looked a world beater, right up until the point where he tanked off the final bend in the Lexus chase and suddenly started paddling after the last fence. Debate raged about his stamina, and his subsequent defeat at the hands of Sir Des Champs in the Hennessy seemed to confirm him a non-stayer. His no-show behind Sprinter Sacre at Aintree was the last time we saw him and there have been all sorts of stories flying around about his health and well-being during the 2nd half of last season. It will be a big challenge for Tony Martin to plot Flemenstar's path through this season, with media scrutiny likely to be intense. But he has made a sensible choice for his first race and hopefully we will once again be treated to the spectacle of his flamboyant jumping. Next in the market is the Willie Mullins trained Arvika Ligeonniere who pulled up behind Simonsig in the Arkle before bouncing back to form to win the Ryanair at Punchestown in convincing fashion. He looks the type to do well over further in time and seems better suited by soft or heavy ground, so I can see him being done for toe here a little bit. At 6/1 we have Sanctuaire, who is now also with Willie Mullins (one assumes because he has seen way too much of Sprinter Sacre's rear end) and it will be interesting to see of this talented but quirky individual fares in Ireland this season. Again, this seems a logical starting point for him. Days Hotel, at 10/1, rattled up a hat-trick this time last year, including 2 Grade 2s, and was admirably consistent over the minimum trip at that level. He may represent a bit of e/w value, especially if one of the Mullins pair doesn't run. Gigginstown have entered Toner D'Oudairies but this will likely be much too sharp for him and 10/1 about his chances doesn't make much appeal. We then have the 2 Realts, Dubh and Mor, whose quotes of 16/1 seem to be a fair reflection of their chances - both admirable chasers but below what will be required to win this. The other Gigginstown runner, Dedigout, looks exposed at this level, and Lucky William and Rubert look chanceless. In summary, Flemenstar looks the one to beat but it will be interesting to see how the Mullins pair perform and if the principals flop, Days Hotel could be the one to take advantage. Thoughts?????
Flemenstar fell apart towards the end of last season so I'd be looking to take him on at odds on. I'd be happier each way on Arvika at 4/1 depending on ground conditions.
If the ground is on the soft side of good, I wouldn't be suprised to see Sanctuaire up there, Hw is a horse with a lot of talent and I'm sure he would have improved again!
Sanctuaire now races for Mullins as well. Very interesting runner. Arvika has to prove he's a class horse against the elders but definitely has bundles of ability.
Surely Arvika is a mudlark though Bob - I can't see 2 miles on goodish ground playing to his strengths?
I don't know if he needs to have it all in his favour. Like I said at first, it's ground dependent but 4/1 is too big against this field.
Yeah, I agree Flemenstar is awfully short given the question marks. As a racing fan I hope he is back to his brilliant best but as a betting proposition he is too short. As I wrote above, Days Hotel would be my e/w value bet.
No bet at those odds but I do hope Flemenstar prevails and shows what he's capable of. Last seasons campaign/tactics were a joke. None of this holding up and taking a pull malarkey just as he's reaching top gear. He jumps beautifully and travels well so let him take it on from the front and see if there is any good enough to get past. I suspect there are few capable of lowering his colours. Who will get the leg up? Won't be Ruby as he'll ride for Mullins. Davy Russell? I suspect in later races neither of those will be available so will he just take the best available on the day or seek to establish a regular partner.
I dont really want to open this argument up again and i agree that odds on about Flemenstar is far far too short for anyone with any sense to be betting on, but those races last year, in my mind, did not prove that Flemenstar wont stay 3 miles. He was beaten by about a length in probably the strongest race of the year (gold cup aside) and that was after being keen all the way round, then the race after he was beaten by a quality horse in Sir Des Champs and they said after the race that he wasnt right. Plus he was hardly falling apart towards the end of the race. He probably will turn out to be better over shorter but nothing has suggested to me so far that he cant and wont stay 3 miles.
Agree 100% Brough. I'm trying to be disciplined with antepost betting but 16/1 for the King George looks massive to me.
Andrew Lynch keeps the ride No strong views other than isn't the 2 mile division weak looking except obviously for the Black Aeroplane? Hope Flemenstar wins this but he lost me enough money in the Lexus and Hennesey I'll probably just be watching.
I think a lot blame dear old Peter Casey for the riding tactics tried (unsuccessfully) on Flemenstar last year but I get the feeling the owner gets his oar stuck in a right bit. If that's the case it could be same again this year which doesn't bode well
Will be interesting to see if the tactics on Sanctuaire are to let him blaze a trail like he has done previously. I think last time he did this we saw one of the most impressive performances last season from the great Sprinter Sacre who glided past him with ease. Although, none of these in the field are in the league of Sprinter Sacre, if these tactics are adopted he could catch a few out here and really test out the jumping of some of them. It would be great if Tony Martin manages to rejuvenate Flemenstar, because i remember this time last year he had the world at his feet.
When Sanctuaire ran against SS he led him a merry dance for some way, even outjumping him, until SS took command and it was all over. No SS here so maybe with another year on his back Sanctuaire could be a serious contender in races in which SS doesn't turn up.
Ouch that makes the race a bit of a damp squib I think I'll unstick this ****er then. A total of 14 runners across 2 Grade 2s and a Grade 3 on Navan's card Sunday. WTF??
Think RV says it all. Our Conors defection was another thing I was not surprised to see. I am convinced the Racing Post is a bookmakers puppet. Drums up hype and then boom...races fall apart. Early days in the season though so much better racing to come. Sanctuaire with Mullins? If ever he revitalises him that would be a red-faced Paul Nicholls. That said though, he is madder than a Thai woman with an erection so I think he coukd still cause trouble. He at least will inject a new angle into the Irish 2m open division though whilst Sprinter keeps us occupied in the UK.
