Last years wonderful thread from Cyc http://www.not606.com/showthread.php/176805-Melbourne-Cup/page3 Tipped up Green Moon for the Melbourne Cup last year and I do like a horse with a similar profile this year. HAWKSPUR has been finishing his races like a train, especially two starts ago over 10f (inadequate trip) and met traffic problems when disappointing in the Caulfield Cup. Green Moon did the same last year when bouncing back from a poor Caulfield Cup performance to land the big one, and Hawkspur also gets in off a nice weight (8st6), like Green Moon did last year. The biggest worry would be Gate 18, as last years selection was drawn 6 and got the perfect sit. However, this ought to be run at a clip and a late rattler might be the way to go this time, but so much luck is needed for a clear passage. I have no doubt that this horse is handicapped to go right at it here though- have a look at this when just behind Cox Plate winner FAWKNER and FIORENTE. Who do you think would have won this if it was run over the Melbourne Cup distance? [video=youtube;WmNx2QbRlRI]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WmNx2QbRlRI[/video] After that, there are a number of horses who have the sort of ability to get involved. SEA MOON was a horse I felt would win a Group 1 here in the UK and backed him in the King George accordingly. He finished a running on 5th that day, in front of another challenger, BROWN PANTHER, and they were both half a length and 2l behind St Nicholas Abbey, who I think would win a Melbourne Cup if he had ever raced here., so it is the sort of ability I really rate. They had DUNADEN back further down the field and he must surely struggle from top weight and being another year older. Sea Moon has improved as they have gradually upped him in trip and his St Leger 3rd suggests this is the race he will be suited to. He is drawn well and both he and Brown Panther will be bang in the firing line after great draws, but they must use the position to advantage, especially Brown Panther who could take some pegging back if he is in with a shot turning in. However, it is one other horse who ties in with both their KING GEORGE and ST LEGER form who I think might surprise them all. MASKED MARVEL beat them all off level weights, a breakneck pace, and fast ground in the 2011 St Leger and he has been very, very considerately handled Down Under, to the point where he almost looks a plot. He broke the Doncaster track record that day and e has a similar sort of flat left handed track here that he might like. The Aussies might take a look at his form down there as woeful but those with a perhaps shrewder eye might look and think he has been brought along very steadily. He has raced only between 1m-1m2s in Australia, a full half a mile short of his optimum form and therefore he has tonnes of scope from improvement. He receives 10lb from Dunaden, 6lb from Sea Moon, and 2lb from Brown Panther despite having beat them all over similar distance and conditions. Have a look how well he is looked after when held up in the 1m race at Flemington a couple of starts back (Sea Moon only half a length in front in 12th): [video=youtube;ICJv3DHGK18]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICJv3DHGK18[/video] He was held up stone last in the 10f Cox Plate and was carried very wide so he lost any chance of making his stamina count from there. Today however, he is drawn in stall 2, where I hope they make some bloody good use of him and let him track the pace. If they get him rolling off a fast pace he could take some stopping if he gets in front at full tilt- he is a relentless galloper on his day and was not stopping in the St Leger on good to firm turf, where he exceeded all of his middle distance form when a relatively unfancied 15/2 chance. Theres close to 40/1 to be had on the exchanges and I think he is very well treated, nicely drawn, at the right sort of age and with the right sort of trainer. I've mopped up some silly odds with him in case all of that comes true. Very difficult race to solve but I think those two are the standout value by a mile.
All about the French horse imo! She has a low weight and a good draw, and her trainer lifted the Cup in 2010 with Americain so knows how to win!
I am that confident Cue Card will win tomorrow (Already had a bet on him at 11/ that if he looses I shall put a spurs logo on avatar till saturday!! I just cant believe everyone thinks he is gona get beat
If Cue Card is anything near top form he will take some beating. He has been fantastic since his fall against Grands Crus and only Sprinter Sacre and Bobs Worth have lowered his colours I think?! I know a lot of people hold Williams Wishes in high regard but it will take a performance to beat Cue Card first time up.
Mind you- I didn't know Cue Card was conceding over a stone to all of his rivals!! That makes it a watching race I think. Any one of ***O/MODULE/WILLIAMS WISHES could be progressive enough to put in a 165 performance, meaning that with the handicap weighting Cue Card might have a real race on if as he isn't quite tip top!
No ones mentioned SOMERSBY running off his lowest mark for three years. Not many miles on the clock for a 9yo. It will be some performance by Cue Card to win off these terms but he looked highly progressive last season and turned this event into a procession!
***o is the one I fear the most out those 3! I think Nicholls rushed him last year and then after his fall, lost all confidence. They hold him in high regard and is more than capable of putting a 165 performance- but still confident enough in CC - hes not good enuf to win a King George or a Gold Cup but he will be too good for this lot!
I really like Williams Wishes and he's one to watch for me this season. With his injury problems however I can see him needing the run. I reckon Cue Card will be primed for this and I read somewhere that the trainer and jockey believe there is more improvement to come and think it likely that he will be better than last season. Confidence seems high.... Its a tough one to call and I wont be having a bet myself but I would say Cue Card will win but the one who could give him the most to do could be ***o - not sure what to make of him just yet but he seems held in high regard.
Caught the race too Dex. Fiorente a comfortable winner and nothing really running on to threaten it! Did not fancy him at the weights so wel done anyone on him.
Good performance by Fiorente. Was probably a tad unlucky last year, but the road to ruin is making excuses for horses. When Waterhouse got him in October last year she said he was the most beautiful horse she'd ever seen. What must she think now. Nice to see Pilsudski in a pedigree.
Sorry something wrong there. Ballymacoll don't have a sister to him so guess it's fingers crossed for next year's foal.
Excellent from Fiorente, congrats to Dexter and all those who backed him. Some fine runs too from the European-trained horses, can't grumble with Dandino either, ran well to finish 5th. Bit tight there on the rail?
Agree, Bustino, and what a triumph for German sire Monsun too. Just shows his progeny don't necessarily need plenty of cut in the ground. This was good going at Flemington today.
