OT - Über's Open Debate Thread

I would never try and understand John Lyndon ... I never have really but do a PIL top 5 and the songs and messages to me go well beyond anything that has been manufactured in show business ... not that he is apart of it. We only have to walk through any town in this country to see what this country has became ... I don't want that too much

The good old Olympic Games ... there's another subject ...24bn

 

During the debate on 9/11, DT pointed out many reasons why he was doubtful about the official account of what happened, especially concerning the attack on The Pentagon.

Well, after looking into it myself, I agreed that the attack on The Pentagon did leave some unanswered questions.
However, I have found this, which debunks all the 9/11 conspiracy theories in great detail.

Take a look DT.
http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/military/news/debunking-911-myths-pentagon

 

The response that is usually trotted out by opponents of the European Community goes along the lines of initially welcoming the aim of taking down trade barriers between European nations, but then arguing that things have gotten out of hand, firstly by monetary union, and then by virtue of encroachment into home government, laws and so forth. It is probably no surprise that I have a substantial amount of sympathy for this perspective.

The thing is, I cannot see how one can have monetary union without political union; so for me it really depends upon whether you support a migration towards a United States of Europe or not. I'm a 'not'; failing to subscribe to an entity to which the UK remains a net contributor since pretty much the day that it joined, and is likely to increasingly remain so as more Eastern European states join. This will be viewed as a selfish position, which it is. But it is wholly consistent with my stance on incursion into Syria, i.e. I think about what's best for British interests first. It is what it is.

I don't agree that the euro is a red herring, Stan - a common currency across the member states is central to an integrated Europe. The problem is, however, that the migration to the euro was managed by the most influential and powerful participating member states (France and significantly Germany) in such a way that it benefited their exports into the rest of the member states. In very simple terms, Germany was able to sell more of its cars and stuff to the rest of us, which had a major and almost immediately favourable impact on an already strong economy. Germany has been able to become the dominant force in Europe - irrespective of what the French might believe of themselves - in a way that it never thought possible long ago and by other means. This is not a xenophobic rant at Germany, nor some uncalled-for inference that they never fully lost their 'old ways' - it is a statement of fact.

The question is: could the UK have put itself into a similar position as Germany had she embraced the European project in the same way from the off? Quite possibly, but I think this was never likely simply because of the way we think, our inferior work ethic, and the fact that we just don't think of ourselves as European by virtue of the English Channel separating us from the mainland. This might sound crap, but there's a similar picture with the Scandinavian countries and the Baltic getting in the way. I await the view from our Scandinavian friends on this board - they might drive a bus through this opinion.

The reason the so-called PIGS nations ran into trouble was (at least in part) a direct consequence of the introduction of the euro. Had it not been adopted these nations could have taken more and earlier independent action to manage their balance of payments by modifying interest rates. They could have acted more nimbly without first having to refer to the ECB and other bodies. Poor old Greece; a nation having around a fifth of its GDP coming from tourism found itself unable to make this product more attractive to holidaymakers in the way it could with its drachma because the euro more closely equalised the cost of things in Greece with the cost of things in the rest of Europe. Who recalls how cheap it was to holiday in Greece before the advent of the euro compared to now? Who has noticed how Turkey has joyously capitalised hugely on Greece's woes, with the cost of Turkish vacations offering significantly better VFM for a great many years now. This VFM is only just coming to an end as the laws of supply & demand take hold, plus its impending membership of the EU will gradually rob it of this competitive advantage.

You invited thoughts from our Irish friends on this subject, so I'll wait until any choose to contribute before writing more.

 

I'll digest Uber. Brief thoughts - I felt the Euro was a red herring in that the UK will probably not join for a very long time, if ever, didn't want us to go down that route. I think the evolution of the EU is fascinating - I believe it was started to tie the economies of France and Germany together in such a way that war between them would have been impossible, a laughably old fashioned notion now, but hey, its worked. And now its become a hydra, getting its bureaucracy into everything. I'm not too fussed about sovereignty, more interested in personal freedom, but I do get exercised about efficiency and it's stunningly inefficient and poor value for money.

I think you are right about some of the differences between 'us' and 'them'. Something that never fails to impress me about France, Spain, Italy and Germany is the number of small, independent retailers that dominate their high streets, which have never seem to have died like ours. Sure they have chains and out of town hypermarkets, but things aren't dominated by the same 20-30 chain retailers everywhere you go, or ****ing charity shops. And they haven't put massive plate glass shop windows on the ground floor of every historic old building.

The idea of a genuine free trade area brings with it some need for harmonization, to make the system effective and even out competition but this has clearly gone too far. We know to our cost that democratic governments (the only sort I'm interested in) are pretty poor at managing free markets even within their own boundaries, I don't know what possessed them to think they could do it across frontiers.

All too late now I fear. It's here, if we do have a referendum I hope we cleverly stay in, because I'd prefer to be in the tent pissing out rather than outside pissing in.

 

I'd prefer to be outside, laughing at the ridiculous notion of a one-size-fits-all interest rate and single currency.
The EU is corrupt. How many years is it now that their accounts haven't been signed off? I do not want un-elected bureaucrats in Brussels making laws that we have to abide by. It won't surprise anyone on here that I passionately don't want to be part of a United States of Europe, although all opinion polls suggest that I'm in the majority. I don't want to lose our sovereignty Stan and it's one of the few issues that I would take to the streets over.

There's no reason why we can't be trading partners without being political partners.

If the politicians ever have the balls to let the British public decide, we will be out! Sooner the better!!

 

I have never, ever heard a coherent and plausible explanation as to why we should remain in the EU, Stan. The Norwegian model is a good one, in which they are part of the EEA, but not a member state of the EU. In this way they can enjoy the single market on the proviso that they adopt the key legislation related to playing in that arena. They are generally free to adopt or otherwise as they see fit other EU legislation that is pretty much imposed on full member states.

There's a good deal of scaremongering about what it would mean to the UK should we leave the EU. I cannot imagine that the Germans and French would then refuse to sell us their vehicles. I cannot imagine this would adversely effect our standing as a centre for the financial services industry - this is constantly under challenge from Stuttgart anyway. I cannot imagine that if our product is good and the price is right, the latter of which can be partially managed through interest (exchange) rates and other financial management tools, then Europe would not want to acquire it.

 

I would love to one day see a fully integrated "United States of Europe" and it might not be that far off considering we're halfway there already. With the World getting smaller all the time, there's no place for insular, tribal nationalism. The European Union is one of the few great things that emerged from the ashes of World War Two and long may she live and prosper.

More power to Brussels I say.

 

But isn't it easier not getting to know each other so that we can make them 'bite' in the name of edgy banter, Travis? If we're all united and one big happy family, then wouldn't that make relations more sterile?

Actually, I'm wondering whether this is one of those grenades you like to lob in to wind Col up?

 

To be fair...........Swords has always held this view.
No surprise that it's the diametric opposite of my view.

The encouraging thing is that people across Europe seem to be less and less keen on a United States of Europe. The British would certainly never vote for it in my lifetime imo.

 

He doesn't need my help on that front. COL would get wound up by his own shadow.

Seriously, the closer all the member States become toward one another with a strong central Government, the better. Naturally each State would need to maintain its identity and control over certain departments but a unified, federal Europe would be a much stronger political and economic unit that would be beneficial to us all.

 

Fair enough. Apologies.

I find myself drawing a parallel between the EU and the British class system, where the richer and most influential nations (such as Germany) are the higher order, the struggling nations (e.g. the PIGS) and the poorer nations are the working class, and the rest (and I would put the UK in this bunch) are the middle classes.

As we know, its the middle classes that generally pay, its the working classes that generally receive*, and its the higher order that orchestrates everything and rarely at a material level.

So, on reflection, it should come as little surprise that the most enthusiastic advocates of closer integration would be those that benefit most.

[*I'm expecting some dissent for this remark]

 

I guess you are referring to overall economic benefit from EU membership, because in terms of funding Germany is a net donor to the tune of twice of what we give, and France and Italy give a sizeable amount more as well. We give 62 Euros per head per year to the EU, about 0.25% of GNP. Slightly to my surprise Spain is 'up' by only 9 euros per head, Greece by 267, with Estonia and Lituania ahead getting over 400n e per head from the EU. But in a league of its own is Luxembourg, benefitting from membership by a stunning 2364.5 euros per head per year. Lucky Bourgers.

Sorry for all the stats, I got carried away. I realise this is all irrelevant to the principle of the thing for many people. I'm not passionate about it, feel its a fine idea ****ed up by small minds and lack of talent, undoubtedly corrupt and wasteful and ripe for reform.

If the Germans get most out if it when everything is taken into account its because they are more efficient and productive than the rest of us. Though they themselves (at least the ones who run my company's German operations) fall about laughing at this idea. I reckon they would be the economic force in Europe with or without the EU.

 

...I'm on tenterhooks, a stunning how much?

I'm not reading anything from what you've written so far that contradicts what I wrote, though. I meant to say "rarely LOSES at a material level" (note to self: must proof read more) and my point about orchestration remains sound. It's the trading economic effect that especially Germany has benefited from that is the key.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8036097.stm#start

The graph on the link (probably what you were looking at?) kinda supports where I was going with this, despite surprises like Italy (who no doubt will be paying for their bailout at some point).

 

...hit 'post' by mistake....

We've never really been emotionally 'in' the EU. We either should have stayed out or joined much earlier (Merci de Gaulle). If it comes to a referendum, even if Dave has renegotiated our membership, I reckon it will be tight but Col and yourself will get your way. The world won't collapse as a result, we will continue trading, there will be some business, and for me travel inconveniences.

And of course all the EU players in British football will have to get workpermits. May be the best thing possible for the England team.

 

Know the feeling

 

Self awareness is a wonderful thing mate.

 

I'll have to sign you up for one my Qigong classes.

You'd be a natural

 

I agree that the result could be quite close if the question is "in or out". If the referendum was about joining the Euro, I believe the NO would be significantly higher.

 

But that's never going to be the question Col, because as far as I know there are no political parties which could form part of a government in this country which support adopting the Euro. Dave will try to renegotiate our membership terms to something more akin to Norway or Switerland's relationship with the EU (i.e. not in it but working with it, but we stay in because of our size and heft and we will have a vote on whether we stay in on these terms or leave anyway, and still have the same kind of relationship. If he fails to win many changes I guess he will campaign to get a no vote. I think we will vote no, just, not because there are a significant number of people who have thought this through, like Ubes and yourself, and have concluded that its best to get out, but that a majority of the people who never think anything through don't trust foreigners.

 

even though we have moved on from police cautions I read the numbers lately and it has taken me a while to find them again

163660 cautions handed out in total last year
In the last year 500 people after admitting guilt were given cautions(despite committing indictable only offences which should have been tried at a crown court)
2737 in four years including 18 rapists
27 arsonists
20 people who admitted having sex with under 13 year olds

and instead of going to court 962 knife thugs
54 class a drug dealers
and 7 peoplewho admitted child prostitution were given cautions ie let off with no punishment or rehabilitation