Anyone think Webber will challenge Vettel tomorrow? Presumably it will be a two stop race for everyone, and the only thing that will vary will be whether they run the primes at the beginning or the end. I can see it working out for Webber if Vettel pits early and gets stuck behind Alonso or possibly even the McLarens. Red Bull are a smidge quicker than Ferrari in a straight line but slower than McLaren, so clearing the McLarens at the stops will probably be the key, Alonso will probably be easier to pass on track with his lower top speed. Should be an interesting race, Vettel's usual tactic of maintaining a 2-3 second lead won't work here, he'll have to get to the finish as quickly as possible to stay ahead of Webber. I hope Hulk can beat the McLarens, the split strategies will give him no chance against Alonso.
I really don't think Red Bull anticipated Webber doing as well as he did on primes. Vettel's strategy puts him at much greater risk of getting caught in traffic than Webber's, so you'd think Webber stands a decent chance. The key will likely be Webber's start. If he does as poorly as he often does and is ~7th into the first corner I think Vettel's got it (I'm presuming Vettel leads into turn one, nothing else seems likely!). But, a good start for Webber could well make him favourite to win.
Vettel always has a stronger race day than Webber and he isn't that much slower/faster than Webber on options while using the primes himself.
Really surprised that Alonso qualified on primes when his Q2 times suggested he could have joined Vettel on the front row. I'm more surprised with Ferrari's post-qualifying comments - which basically says that Massa is the one on the risky strategy. Alonso says the guys starting on softs will have to pit around lap six and will get stuck behind those on mediums, who will stay out until around lap 30. Fry says that those starting on medium will be favourite Ferrari.com describes the soft as a liability. I'm struggling to see why they would take the risk - if they can outqualify Mercedes, then on the same strategy they should have no problems beating them in the race, so why take the risk of starting on primes? Unless they think they could win the race ....
I seem to remember Red Bull saying the same thing in Canada in 2010. The risk with running the option at the end of the race is misjudging the length of the last stint. Running it in the middle is a possibility but you're going to be pitting twice in quick succession in the middle of the race with very little flexibility, it would take a miracle to avoid traffic. It all depends on finding windows to pit and clearing slower cars efficiently. The safety car could play a big part too, an early one will give the people on options a free stop, a late one will bunch the field up allowing those on options to attack; something similar happened in Silverstone I think. Edit: Apparently no one has ever won a race after starting on primes.
Red Bull after 4 laps please log in to view this image Mercedes after 7 laps please log in to view this image Ferrari after 3 laps please log in to view this image And a message from Alonso's mate saying: "are you sure starting on the hard tyre is that bad?" Interestingly it seems Alonso still has issues with Pirelli. His mate tweeted "Quality Pirelli" with this picture: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BXb134BCUAAPpd1.jpg
I don't get what Alonso wants. Ferrari were opposed to a more durable tyre earlier in the season, now he's complaining that the tyres are too fragile.
Hulk did this to a tyre yesterday: please log in to view this image Hembery said they'll do up to 15 laps. I'll be surprised if anyone gets past lap 6 without getting into trouble.
Are we looking at yet another pneumatic clusterfuck tomorrow then? That'll mean a Pérez DNF at the very least; and he used to be so easy on his tyres too.
Wow, Pirelli say the best strategy for those starting on option tyres is to pit on lap 2! ----> Opt-Pri-Pri [pit lap 2 & 28] For those starting on primes, the best strategy is to do only 3 laps at the end on softs ----> Pri-Pri-Opt [pit lap 28 & 57] I'm sure we'll see more laps on the softs but still it's crazy that the optimal strategy only involves 2 or 3 laps on those tyres. Could be like Spa 2012(?) with a lot of blistering and early pit stops.
