"i can't remember the stat, but it was something like the best defensive record in the league always comes in the top 2 positions" Not always. Never trusting such claims offhand I did some quick analysis of the PL era. The teams that finish in the top 2 show at least one of the following traits : - Ranked 1/2 on GD - Ranked 1/2 on least goals conceded
I hope that its coming together now, in terms of AVB's 'project'. You would hope that as players continue to get to know each other better then they will start to move the ball faster between themselves and to do it in a more effective manner in the final third. What has been said here I completely agree with - we see a lot of possession around the halfway line between the back 4 and the defensive mids, but thats the philosophy - keep the ball and the opposition can't hurt you. As we've all said the main problem is the final third. I think we're missing having BOTH proper fullbacks as with our wingers playing so they come inside, the fullbacks are the ones who need to provide the width with a DM (Sandro, Capoue etc.) sitting to cover. Townsend and Walker seem to have a good understanding down the right but that leaves us lopsided with no-one going past Sig/Lennon/Chadli on the left, you'd think with Rose back in the team that that would improve. Having more width will open up more space inside you'd think. I've heard it said that to play wide if you want to go down the middle, and to play narrow if you want space out wide. If Rose/Walker are forcing the opposition to mark a wide man as well then Eriksen and the wingers coming inside might have a little more space to operate. Luckily as well we have Townsend who is prepared to force the issue with a run or a cross or a flick on or a shot, more players need to take this attitude and we might see more chances and thus more goals. I'm not saying shoot on sight of course, but I really believe that as the players continue to gel and their confidence improves that they will get their heads up and look for the ball/run forward like Townsend is right now rather than just return the ball to the DM or the CB and retain possession, which is what we're seeing so much of. The important thing is that we continue to win games and get clean sheets and that AVB continues to manage the squad properly (ie: not overplaying players which I think was a big factor in the poor performance in the West Ham loss). If we keep winning then the players have no reason not to be confident, and hopefully they can start looking for the more positive playing option going forward rather than just focusing on retaining possession constantly. I doubt we'll ever see 'Redknapp style' football now under this management but if we can get the players gelled and confident in themselves and a gameplan then we should see some good football. I certainly hope so anyway. If we win a cup with a run of hard fought, if dominant, 2-0 wins the I'd hardly be complaining! But it would be nice to have the 'soul' of the club intact with attacking, free-flowing football in evidence. Until then I'm still happy to give AVB the benefit of the doubt regarding our playing style. I said last year when we weren't winning games to 'keep the faith', and I believe that if we do this again then we will see some good football ahead. I'll be happy to hold my hand up if I'm wrong of course. But I really hope I'm not.
"Yes, so the best defenses come in the top 2." There have been teams who finished 3rd who were ranked 1/2 on least goals conceded. But the teams who finished above them had better on GD. Hence not "always" regarding goals conceded (but a very good correlation nonetheless) .
Spurm you must know by now that Spurs are perfectly capable of having the best defence & GD and still be pipped to 4th!
I also heard the commentator say "always" yesterday. Of all the stattery I have done on various aspects of finishing in the PL top 4, or with a certain number of points, the recurring pattern seems to be that for said achievements there seem to be two key traits, and the teams in question exhibit one or both of them. For example, if Spurs finish on at least 76 pts, I expect to see that one or both of the following occurred : - GD of at least 30 - Less than 40 goals conceded
"you must know by now that Spurs are perfectly capable of having the best defence & GD and still be pipped to 4th!" And that is the problem. My money this year is on finishing 2 pts clear and then having 3 pts deducted for that flare incident at Villa.
Was it actually a flare? I know the BBC keep saying it was, but to me it looked like a smoke bomb which is a very different thing, and it's properties as a missile aside is basically harmless. Anyways, going back to the stats... one area we have struggled with for years is goals. All the "top 4" teams ie teams the papers agree are establised (Manu, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and city) have always scored more than us. We won a cup of the back of having Ledley and Woody, and a decent strike pairing, but overall we have never had enough goals from anywhere on the field. Our current way of playing would be perfect, but for two things: We lost 0-3 which basically wiped our GD We don't thrash teams when we should which would push it up but 3-4 every so often. If i'm not mistaken utd, Arsenal, city and Chelsea have all thrashed teams by putting 4 past them already this year.
"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point. The term was popularised in the United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the 19th-century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli (1804–1881): "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." However, the phrase is not found in any of Disraeli's works and the earliest known appearances were years after his death. Other coiners have therefore been proposed, and the phrase is often attributed to Twain himself.
"Anyways, going back to the stats... one area we have struggled with for years is goals. All the "top 4" teams ie teams the papers agree are establised (Manu, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and city) have always scored more than us." Using the '76 points' stuff as a reference, Spurs in the PL era have only conceded less than 40 goals once, and never finished with a GD in the 30s. It puts it into perspective that just to finish 4 pts better than last season requires serious improvement on one or two aspects of play.
"I'll take 3rd!" Then then '20+ PL goals per season striker' trait may interest you (come on Soldier boy !!! ) .
There's a good side there being played all wrong imo. Gel...its all I hear, 'give them time to gel'...what is this a ****in hair salon! Man City bought a **** load of players, a good number in 2011...they slotted straight in and won the league. Now I'm not saying thats what we should be doing, just no 'gel' excuses apply there. The fact is some of these players aren't good enough to play the system and nor is the bloke implementing them....and the system. Don't anyone fling the clean sheet stats please, I cannot believe my eyes sometimes, the incredible amount of poor finishing from our opponents and our own good fortune won't last. That and an odd goal from us giving a result doesn't do anything for me, and a bum result like the WHam game won't be the only one either. Apart from faces, I see very little change from last year.
I think to be fair notso, City did not manage to win the league in their first 'new' year. It took a season to ...................................gel! .......................................LOL. We need some intuitive work between these players especially in such a controlled format and that will take time to develop although Paulinho, Soldado and Eriksen are already there IMO others need time.
When players "gel", there is greater fluency and tempo to their play - certainly when you are dealing with quality players with good technique. When players more instinctively take up positions and play to formations, anticipating the runs or the passes their teammates will make, the more effective they are. We see it often with good teams in form. Conversely, when players haven't played together long, their play is more stilted and laboured and the tempo is slower. This isn't an earth shattering relevation, Smart, it's commonsense and common knowledge and why managers want time to "build a team".
Yeh to be fair Notso chelsea had a good few years with Ranieri bedding in players before Mourinho arrived. And city had Sven, and Hughes doing the same...as well as Mancini missing out on CL to us before they then went and got the league. I'm not saying AVB should go. For me he should get this year to bed in the players, continue to build on the clean sheets and winning mentality and hopefully win CL or a cup. Then next year I will expect improvements on the way we play and either CL or a cup. If he does not succeed next year, or the team is not playing any better then I would start looking at Benitez, Martinez, Pochetino or Loudrup depending on how they do this year and next and obviously their availability.
