Don't get carried away fella, some of the folk round here don't like to see that particular emoticon (though why I'm really not entirely sure )
Palace have eased out from 1/7 to 1/4.Presumably this being a reflection of poorer performances by the other suspects putting them further in the frame and therefore potentially easier to catch.It will be interesting to see what happens after Palace v Fulham. Sunderland continue the inexorable shortening.They have moved to 8/11 on and every commentator plus the vast bulk of their own fans are saying the game is up for them.The spectacular collapse at Swansea after holding out for two thirds of the game seemed to be a turning point when the belief in Poyet as a saviour suddenly evaporated. Hull and Cardiff on 9/4 are virtually unchanged and we are in from 7/2 to 5/2.I find that a little surprising as the defeats to Chelsea and Arsenal I would have thought were already factored in. Fulham remain at 4/1 and Stoke puzzlingly move out from 9/2 to 11/2.Looking at their recent performances that looks like an anomaly.To me that looks like a great bet if you are a gambler rather than just a stat watcher like me.
If City win against Cardiff those odds will change dramatically, as happened after Stoke. The Bookies are influenced by points rather than performance.
Not sure if anyone has said it yet, but I really think the number of points to survive could be pretty low this season, much closer to 35 than 40. All the 'big teams' look exceptionally strong this year, you really can't see too many relegation candidates picking points up from Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, City, Spurs or Everton, and United can surely only get better. Last season several of those teams were much easier to get points from.
With all the new managers in the top teams, it's worth noting that there was a lot of chat before the season started that they could all be there for the taking and therefore, likely, a higher figure closer to 40 might be required. Perhaps not then.
My guess at the moment - and it is purely a guess - is that it will take around 40 this season. Early signs suggest that Palace and Sunderland may get cut adrift, but that the gang of teams above them will all pick up points off each other, so I'm predicting a car crash of five or six teams all around the 40 points marks and one of them will have to take the hit.
I touched on this in post 177.I see two possible scenarios: 1 Sunderland and Crystal Palace cut adrift and one of the "mini-league" above failing to get results against their fellow strugglers and becoming this season's Wigan.In this case I would see 18th spot in the 36 point range. The second scenario sees the contenders in a bunch with the inevitable leap frogging every time somebody gets a win.I think this is a more likely outcome and the contenders would be: Norwich,Fulham,Cardiff,Stoke,West Ham, and Hull with possibly one other which can only really be West Brom or Villa but quite frankly both seem unlikely.In this case I think 39/40 points migt be the cut off. My own feeling with the players we have is that I feel pretty confident in this kind of company.I still think Stoke look poor.
The 38 match record for relegation with the most points is regarded as West Ham on 42. I'm sure that before the Premier League era in the late 80s and 90s a club went down on 43. I think in both cases the bottom two were well cut-off. The signs indicate something similar this season but there's a long way to go.
My formula for an early pointer is the relationship of 18th place in terms of games played to points.In the case of us it's -1 at the moment.If that is maintained then the outcome is 37 points.If this figure begins to move into positive territory then we are moving towards a 39/40 point finish.In actual fact it's pretty unlikely that every team in the mix will score more than a point a game. While you are on -1 you are not going to get cut adrift because the corollary of this particular scenario is that you would reach 35 games on 34 points so even that 42 point line,which is self evidently an outlier,is within reach.So the initial aim of survival is a point a game.If you manage that your statistical chances of the drop are small. The problem is clearly illustrated by Sunderland,now on -7.my feeling is that if they get nothing from their next two against Newcastle and Hull they are gone.Defeat against Fulham tonight would see Palace slip to -5 and for a team without any great quality then I think it's getting close to game over for them too.
agree. the fact sunderland only have 1 point and palace 3 is irrelevant. it's how many points the team in 17th have. to me it looks like a 40 point season - there are going to be a large number of teams involved once again and even if 40 didn't look likely, i think that would still remain the target. i don't think west brom will be involved - i thought they would before the season started, although i didn't think they'd go down, but they are a much better side than i gave them credit for. villa will definitely be in trouble, although again, i think they'll be ok as there are worse teams - but their home record is appalling. the novelty of being in the premier league will begin to wear off for the new boys (not that palace have ever had this feeling) but for hull and cardiff i expect them to get dragged downwards before christmas.
Much has been made of the Sunderland result yesterday,so what effect does one result have? Well the answer is,not a lot.Those who think along the "And with one bound they were free" track should consider this.Sunderland are are still 5/6 on (Sorry Dave I continue to use the term because many don't frequent the bookies) for relegation.They are still second favourites after Palace (1/10). My guess is that other factors than the three points are taken into account.And my evidence for this? After our home 0-0 we have moved out from 5/2 to 3/1.Potential punters will have noted the number of shots on the Cardiff goal and drawn two conclusions. 1.Cardiff won't keep them out every week 2.Norwich won't draw a blank every week So.maybe this is the reason that Cardiff's creditable performance cut no ice and sees them remain stuck at 9/4.The key to the next movement in odds will be Hull v Sunderland and the Wales derby next weekend.Should either candidate gain three points then expect to see changes.
I do like following your analysis, CT, and I think you and the bookies are right. Had City got that elusive goal, they would be in touching distance of the top half of the table. There are too many games left for relegation predictions being anything but a gamble.
On reflection the lengthening of City's odds may be due to the fact that from Hull in tenth spot downwards only Sunderland won with Norwich,Cardiff and West Ham getting draws.So relatively our position improved in relation to six teams.
I'm dreading the next update on here, CT, which I assume will be after Swansea v Cardiff later today?
