tbh Robbie, it is quite easy to criticise the substitution of Wes for Tettey as it left a gap that previously did not exist, and CH also acknowledged this in his interview. In hind-sight, more so as Ramsey came on, it was probably a mistake, or at best a mis-calculation. Unfortunate as on another day, it may well have paid dividends against lesser opponents. Although I am hinting at it being an error, I still applaud his bravery, and if this is what he intends to do for the remainder of the season I will be quite happy, even in defeat to the big boys. It's if we lose at home to the other 'also-rans' it becomes a real problem, and to be honest if that happens, I can't see what he can do other than to go back to where we were in late August
That is a reasonable comment, as yes it can be dangerous against the top sides but maybe, just maybe he wanted to try something out. Being behind, away at the Emirates, is as good a time to try something different, as any, to get more service to the lone front man, as an experiment. It didn't work, but there is nothing to say that Arsenal would have settled for 2-1, could still have been 3-1 or 4-1 with the form Ramsey is in. There are lots of reasons why I wont criticise yesterday, or the Chelsea game - the time for that will be if we don't win at least 5 points from the next 3 home games.
It was absolutely the right thing to do to bring Wes on for Tettey and have a go at them, and though it didn't work out and we did get overrun there is no way Hootun can be criticised for anything he did yesterday at all. Talk of protecting the goal difference at this stage of the season is nonsense if you ask me. When Wes came on Howson dropped a bit deeper so it wasn't as if there was a total void where Tettey had been, however it did still change our shape somewhat, we missed the big guy breaking things down and when you also add in the fact we were understandably bloody knackered by the last ten minutes it was no surprise that the bang on form, world class talent they have at their disposal ran riot. It was a superb game and an excellent performance with lots of positives to take from. I have to say it was a privelidge to have seen some of the football on show yesterday, particularly the first goal which was right in front of me and simply took my breath away. Twenty five quid for that as well, incredible value for money. I personally have been incredibly encouraged by the positivity in our substitutions and attacking intent in recent weeks and despite us losing both, the past two games have really, really impressed me. Big game next week, if we can push on and play like we have been then there is absolutely no reason we won't walk away with the three points
Great post Munky, I have no concerns about our lowly league placing at the moment, our play in the last two games has been a revelation, we're heading in the right direction!
Keeping your (negative) goal difference as low as you can is important. It is actually more important than how many goals you score. A team which scores relatively few goals in a season, say 38, will not struggle against relegation if it also concedes relatively few. Likewise, a team which scores a hatful in a season may nevertheless struggle. Just look at the final tables over several seasons. But I am not moaning at CH's tactics yesterday. He doesn't need me to tell him, so I am interested in why he did what he did.
Not as important as the number of points you earn though. Was it not obvious why he "did what he did" yesterday - or am I missing something?
Absolutely certain that bringing Wes on was tactical, if he was forced through injury he could had brought Johnson on in a like for like swap.
Kempy - We have to expect to beat (or at least not lose) against the teams we expect to be in the relegation scrap come next May. I've just checked the league tables and so far this season, we are the only team to have beaten Southampton and as others have said 6 of the teams we've played are in the top 10 in the league. We MUST get some serious points on the board by Xmas I feel and hopefully reduce our negative goal difference in the process. Hanging on for a 1-0 win isn't good for my nerves!!!
We got done by 3 absolutely sensational goals yesterday by the most in form team in the league, apart from that we competed did well to get back to 2-1 and pressure them for extended periods away from home. How clinical they were is only something we can aspire to, not disappointed at all but am already thinking it's a big one next week.
Coming away with one (or two) points is indeed better than keeping your margin of defeat down to one, but that isn't the question. The question is about the probability of drawing or winning the game by making that particular substitution, i.e. Hoolahan for Tettey, given that in so you doing you weaken your defence. I would have said that by taking off Tettey (and not replacing him with Johnson) the probability shifted more towards Arsenal scoring another goal than to us drawing level. People say "it shows ambition", but ambition for what? Losing the game? You don't show ambition to maximise your "take" from the game by increasing the probability of taking nothing. We had scored once with the original "balance"; I could see a point in refreshing the personnel with like for like substitutions while maintaining the balance, but not in altering the balance.
I do think it's a bit rich for people to be moaning about hughton making a attacking switch. Again I've not seen the game but bringing on Wes in place of Tettey 2-1 down doesn't seem to lack intent on Hughtons part. Fair play to him being brave, sometimes it'll work sometimes it won't.
Being one of those often mis-described on here as a "happy clapper", it's not about CH in my case, I am simply interested in phrases like "it was brave", or "it showed ambition". If the fact is that the substitutions yesterday actually increased the probability of us losing the game (and by a larger margin) and decreased the probability of getting a draw or a win, in what sense did they show "ambition" (to lose?) or represent "bravery" (rather than foolhardiness)?
Good point robbie!! I was listening to the commentary and was quite surprised when I heard that Wes was comimg on in place of Tettey and feel that BJ would have been a better option. Stil I guess that's why we're fans and not football managers!! I think Wes's days of playing in yellow and green are going to be few and far between.
How often do teams go down on goal difference though? Looking back, it happened in 07/08, 06/07, 97/98, 95/96 and 92/93. That's 5 years in 21 years of the Premier League, or ~24% chance. So to shut up shop and try and limit the damage to goal difference might only have an impact on you staying up 24% of the time. The other 76% of the time, it makes more sense to try and get a point, whatever the damage to the goal difference. If in 4 games we go for it late on and concede more each time, then yes it's cost us, but if in one of those games it comes off, then we've increased our chances of staying up. For me, with the way the game was at the time, I felt it was equally likely that we'd score as they would, so the move made sense to me.
I completely agree, I find goal difference quite insignificant this early on, especially when I don't think we will be that close to relegation come end of the season. Bringing Wes could increase your chances off grabbing a point. Especially when we are behind and have just got another goal, normally we would have the momentum. We didn't lose due to Hughtons change anyway, we lost because Arsenal were sublime. I don't think many teams would have picked up a point against arsenal yesterday.
I am not at all saying that we should have "shut up shop". What I am saying is that we had pulled back to 2:1 down with the team that started the game. The balance was right, and we were well in the game. The substitutions altered the balance in two ways: (a) manifestly weakening us defensively, while (b) only possibly giving us more in attack (as YellowLittle puts it "bringing on Wes could have ........" So in reality the substitutions made it more likely that we would lose, rather than more likely that we would get a point. Re. your comment that, as the game was at the time, "it was equally likely that we would score as they would", that was while playing with the balance we had had through the game to that point, and which had already led to us scoring. Which to me makes altering the balance in the way we did even less comprehensible. What would have made sense would have been like for like substitutions to introduce even more energy without disturbing the balance. Redmond for Pilkington was precisely that, but Hoolahan for Tettey was not. Re. it making more sense to try and get a point than protect your goal difference, I agree. But then you should make substitutions which actually increase the probability that you will get a point, rather than substitutions which decrease the likelihood of it.
So let me get this right, you don't think bringing on an additional forward, one who has been our most creative player of the past few seasons, for the last 15 minutes when we needed a goal to stand any chance of taking anything from the game increased our chances of scoring? Believe it or not football isn't an exact science, what Hootun did yesterday was to gamble by putting an extra forward on - it made sense to me and everyone else I've spoken to about it. It was a difficult decision as to who to take off, Howson was probably the only other option but he'd just scored which probably swayed it. Ok, it didn't pay off yesterday but as far as I'm concerned he should be applauded for trying something a bit different and going for it - and who knows, Arsenal's extra class might have shone through in the last ten minutes anyway, we had lots of tired legs on the pitch by then
Sorry haven't read all the posts on here today, I thought we played well, very we'll 15-20 mins either side of halftime but we're undone by probably the form team in Europe at the moment. CH set the team out well with the correct intent, made the right attacking changes at round about the right time. Personally I would have brought Becchio on for hooper when Wes came on. Is it just me or was Hoooper our most disappointing player yesterday, his movement was very poor from my position, it was very low down and gave a poor view. Tettey, Howson and Fer were all very good as a three. Some very promising signs, play like that against Cardiff, west Ham etc we have very good chances a a rapid rise up the league.
Just seen the goals form the game, those Arsenal goals were divine. Despite a lot of people hammering them this summer, including me, they look like the real deal at the minute. Is Ramsey on steroids? Christ, I never rated him much before this season. I thought that leg break had stifled his potential, good on him.
