Maarek does not have a Group 1 penalty because the race conditions for the Sprint do not include any penalties. In 2012, Wizz Kid was a four year old filly carrying 8st 11lb (i.e. 3lb sex allowance). In 2011, she carried 8st 10lb as a three year old filly. There are no Group 1 penalties for any of the ‘Champion’ races as the prize money is commensurate with Group 1 races even where they do not have that pattern designation. I am assuming that Leitir Mor is in the race as a pacemaker, so if the plan for Maxios is to go for home early in the straight and build a lead he will be right up with him. Soft ground is no help for the favourite but should suit Olympic Glory. With the expected main rivals all absent, Dawn Approach can have no excuses. Cirrus Des Aigles has not run anywhere near his 131 rating this year, so I concur with you that Farhh can beat him.
I'm a little surprised by the big price about Soft Falling Rain in the QEII. We don't know he won't go on the ground. Everything else should suit, and that was a very impressive run at Nkt last time. This doesn't look the strongest Gp 1 ever run at Ascot, I think he could be well up to taking a race that's presumably been the target for some time.
Off to Devon until tomorrow night (don't ask!) Done my Quipco selections and will be recording C4 racing for playback late Saturday night. Good ew shots = Royal Diamond 16's; Heaven's Guest and Humidor 17's and 50's respectively and Kingsbarns 16's I fully expect CDA to win the Champion Stakes but I also expect Mukhadram to place. 13-1 on exchanges but best priced 9-1 with crookmakers Good luck lads
This is the pivotal point for me and few trainers are better at getting their big guns back from underwhelming performances than Mr Bolger. It happened with New Approach, Finseal Beo, Lush Lashes and many others who bounced back to their peaks on the back of underwhelming runs. New Approach's swansong was simply awesome and I'm sure old boy Dawn is in rude health. In Bolger I trust!
Quite like the look of one in the Cheltenham bumper tomorrow - David Pipe's Vazaro Delafayette. By top French sire Robin Des Champs he hacked up in a P2P, could be anything and gets a small dabble of my money. Also like Balthazar King after a quick initial look at the cards. More studying to be done.
If Balthazar King came here fresh I'd be all over him. He's undoubtedly at his best when fresh and I think his run when winning a French Cross Country race last month may have taken the edge of him. Will be delighted if he wins but after his recent run I'll be leaving him alone.
Ascot 13.45 Estimate 10 pts win 85/40, Eye of the Storm 2 points win 15/2 14.20 Jack Dexter 1 point win 5/1, Hoof It 0.5 point ew 27/1 16.45 Our Jonathan 0.5 point ew 14/1, Fury 0.5 point ew 14/1
Its one of those days at Cheltenham tomorrow when I like far too many horses. Its usually those days when I draw a blank but for those of you have want to know the ones I like they are as follows; KINGS PALACE 2.00 who I think will make up into a quality animal this year. KUMBESHWAR 2.35 whose conquerors are a who's who. If he gets his jumping right he can win a very decent handicap or two this season. HANDAZAN 3.10 who really impressed me at Chepstow last weekend. BALTHAZAR KING 3.45 to complete a treble in this race. BALDER SUCCES 5.00 jumped beautifully at Chepstow and I hope he is positively ridden again. MIDNIGHT THUNDER 5.30 a very expensive Irish p2per who could be anything. Sunday is the day for a decent punt but Saturday is small stakes only!
Well nearly off to bed! Up very early to get the train up to ascot tomorrow for my race making duties! I agree Stick too many horses I like so small stakes! 13.45- Ascot- Harris Tweed- 9/1- Bit of heart over head with this one- but has a chance! Had a stormer when winning over at goodwood and will absolotely love the ground and the hope is they give him an easy lead which if is the case he will be very hard to peg back! 14.20- Ascot- Maarek - 3/1- Been backing him all week, is on form, will love the ground and is surley the one they all have to beat 15.30- Ascot- Dawn Approach- 2/1- Havent deserted him yet this season and I wont be starting on his last race before stud 16.05- Ascot- Farrh- 4/1- Back from a break, what a performance he had in the Lockinge CDA hasnt been running up to his mark and Farrh will be eager to get back in to the winners enclosure now that Frankel isnt around 16.45- Ascot- Sir Reginald- Backed him when he won @ 10/1 at doncaster and had a good performance at ayr 14.00 Cheltenham- Creepy- 9/2- Won well earlier in the month and should improve for that and will go well 14.35 Cheltenham- Woolcombe Folly- 16/1- Will be very tough off top weight but has been getting back to his old self with his last few runs but fear is that he is not the force of old but hopeful of a place tho 15.10 Cheltenham- Sametegal-9/4 Never been out of the 1st 3, has the best form in the race and again is the one to beat 17.00 Cheltenham- Balder Success- 9/4- Jumped like a stag lto and the bigger fences have really bought him to life- will go places this season so should wipe the field away GL to all
With regards to Maarek, I definitely think he's the horse they all have to beat as he comes here on the back of a super performance when winning the Abbaye but I do think he's a little skinny at the moment as there are a few concerns. Firstly, there is no confirmed front runner in the race and there is a very real danger that it won't be a well run race which definitely will not suit him. Secondly, if rain doesn't arrive tonight it wouldn't surprise me if the jockeys say its good to soft after the first race which definitely isn't ideal for Maarek who loves his mud. I'm going to wait and see if he drifts to 7/2-4/1 (which I think he will) before backing him and although I am confident he can win this race for the 2nd year running I am definitely airing with a side of caution given the few doubts I have. Regardless of the result I still love him to bits.
3.20 Kelso Rapidolyte De Ladalka 11/2 Simon Shirley-Beavan's very lightly raced and unexposed Rapidolyte De Ladalka was successful in 3 of his 5 completed starts last season and I think a mark of 127 is well within the grasp of this dour staying 8 year old. Having looked likely to win barring bad momentum sapping interference and falling at the last at Kelso over 1f shorter than today on racecourse debut back in May 2012, Rapidolyte De Ladalka ran out an impressive winner on his 2nd start over fences after a 244 day break when running out an impressive 8L winner (2 finishers) when beating See What Happens with that rival bringing some useful form prior to that race over 26f at Catterick back in January. On his next start, Rapidolyte De Ladalka found the drop back to 21f at Wetherby against him when well beaten in a good Novice Chase 11 days later but he soon got back on track when successful on handicap debut at Catterick when making it 2-2 over that C+D when winning by 9L. Returned to Novice Company, Radpidolyte De Ladalka made it a perfect 3-3 over Catterick's 26f trip back in February when winning by an eased down 1L in first time cheekpieces from Makethe Mostofnow who came into that contest on the back of an excellent 4th in a competitive handicap chase at Haydock that has worked out very well. Rapidolyte De Ladalka's last start came in the Irish Grand National, which I think says a lot about how he is rated, off a 1lb higher mark of 128 with a perfectly respectable 11th when he did himself no favours by planting himself at the start briefly which saw him at the back of the field. One thing to note about Rapidolyte De Ladalka is that he often gets badly outpaced during the contest, looking like a hopeless cause in the process, before finishing very strongly and its clear he'll stay all day. Due to his run style, I'd highly recommend backing him in running on Betfair as I'm sure at some stage he'll hit a double figure price in running to due looking like he's sure to tail off. The fact he comes here on the back of 201 day absence is no concern to me given he clearly goes well fresh and although 13lb higher than his win in handicap company I definitely feel he's better than his current mark of 127. Given that all 3 of his wins came at Catterick, there could be a slightly concern that he's suited to that very unique track but I think he would have won on debut at Kelso if a little luckier and he seems to go perfectly well at this course judged on that run too. Regular jockey Barry Keniry takes the ride and this represent trainer Simon Shirley-Beavan's first runner since May (which won). In addition to the trainer having a fantastic 5-9 record over fences at the track, he's got a brilliant record of 9-19 with his chasers under rules and he's done really well with his small string of horses. With the return to a small field sure to suit, I'm confident of a big run today from Rapidolyte De Radalka and I can see him powering up the run in to score having looked badly outpaced and in danger of tailing off earlier in the race.
3.45 Cheltenham Becauseicouldntsee 20/1 Noel Glynn's admirable 10 year old Becauseicouldntsee loves it at Cheltenham having finished runner up at the Festival back in 2012 and 2010 and if the application of first time cheekpieces don't have a negative impact he looks potentially chucked in off a mark of 124. With a record off 2-2-5 at the Cheltenham Festival, Becauseicouldntsee ran a blinder earlier this year in the Kim Muir off a mark of 140 when finishing a gallant 5th (was in 2nd jumping the last; usual 2 out) before getting very tired up the run in and although his 3 subsequent runs over fences were very poor in the Grand National, Bet365 Gold Cup and John Smith's Summer Cup I am stunned to see the handicapper drop him 13lb for those runs at the end of very tough campaign. Having taken the summer off, Becauseicouldntsee returned over hurdles in a Novice hurdle at Listowel last month and despite that 2m trip being way too short for him he ran an absolute blinder when finishing beaten a little over 5L in 3rd in a race that has seen the runner up go on to score in a Grade 3 on his next start and that race showed that all his ability and enthusiasm remains. A much better chaser, Becauseicouldntsee ran another very respectable race over hurdles on his last start 16 days ago and it seems like having a run over timber before going back over fences works extremely well for Becauseicouldntsee with 2nd in the Paddy Power Chase and Kim Muir as well as his 5th at Cheltenham this year all being preceded by a run over hurdles. A horse who does not deserve just 2 career wins in 28 starts, (last in February 2010) there is no doubting the horse's enthusiasm for me and if the application of first time cheekpieces have any positive impact then today could very well be the day he gains a long overdue win off a lovely looking handicap mark of 124 returned to a venue he loves. A perennial front runner, Becauseicouldntsee carries a lovely racing weight of just 10-5 today with Martin Ferris going over for just one ride and this is undoubtedly his easiest opportunity for some time. One thing I'd like to point out in case he runs disappointingly is that all his best performances have come when carrying a lot of weight so perhaps the low weight may not suit him but there is no doubting that Noel Glynn's charge is on a very, very good mark. If jumping cleanly, I forecast a very big run from Becauseicouldntsee see and I will be absolutely chuffed if he can score here today at a price that may turn out to be absolutely ridiculous come 4pm. 4.25 Cheltenham Phoenix Flight 25/1 I've been waiting nearly a year for James Evans' 8 year old Phoenix Flight to be seen over hurdles and I think the handicapper has given him a massive chance by dropping him 10lb to 115 for what I thought was a very eye catching run on his last start over hurdles off a mark of 125 at Southwell last November. Better known for his flat exploits, Phoenix Flight career highlights include finishing a never nearer 3rd off a mark of 86 over 20f at Royal Ascot back in June 2011 and a never nearer 3L beaten 6th in the Shergar Cup Stayers Handicap later that season and on his day he's a very useful animal. Very lightly raced over hurdles in recent years, Phoenix Flight was a heavily eased 14L winner of a Maiden Hurdle at Market Rasen in back in May 2011 and he followed that up on his next start of hurdles at Leicester when winning by a nose from the now 135 rated Rowan Tiger in December that year on what was his 2nd last run over hurdles. Phoenix Flight's last run over hurdles came in November last year off a mark of 125 in a race where he massively caught my eye. Under Timmy Murphy over the 21f trip, Phoenix Flight took a very keen hold early on in the race and resultantly he pulled himself into the lead after jumping the 5th where he finally settled down. Having jumped the 3rd last, Phoenix Flight looked home and hosed for all money as he was swinging off the bridle about 5L clear of the rest of the field that were driven along and swinging into the home straight it looked as if he jumped the last two he would win easily. However, whether it was his exertions when pulling early on or a lack of race fitness (2nd run back after 8 months off the track and got an easy time of things) but having jumped two out he all of a sudden looked utterly legless and if he was shot as he stopped to nearly a walk as Timmy Murphy eased him to come home a 30L beaten 7th. Despite the finishing position, the way he travelled until late on suggested that he has a future over hurdles and now off 10lb lower down to 115 I definitely think he has the ability to win off this mark. Since that run, Phoenix Flight has been kept to the flat where he has run pretty well on 3 of his 5 starts. A nice jumper, I think Phoenix Flight will find the likely strong pace ideal given his tendency to pull and he has a lovely low racing weight of just 10-2 with Liam Treadwell taking the ride. Trainer James Evans clearly has his horse in excellent form as he landed the Pertemps Qualifier with Trackmate at the track yesterday and I definitely feel that Phoenix Flight may surprise a few and run a really big race at a lovely price today.
Hunt Ball is to be coming back to the uk after flopping over in the US but beofre that he is running in the US grand national. Wonder who he will join any guesses??
Absolutely love watching this horse but my major concern about today is that he has only won at Catterick. It seems like the very unusual track they have there seems to bring the best out of him. I'm cautious to back him anywhere else until he proves he can win elsewhere
Morning all I have done my comp entries all are at ascot and based on conditions and times and all were ew value I have stuck them in a ew31 small stakes as time was not spent on each race. Ahzeemah Sirius prospect Seal of approval Olympic glory Triple threat I had decided last week without looking at the cards that I would enter a horse from the first 5 races at ascot to test myself please be aware these are not what I would put good money on. Two that I am intrested in are at cat Villa royal at 12s has a bit of ew appeal the two favs have had long lay offs and villa royal has a good 12f record and is 1win from 2 runs here villa may be top weight but the conditions will most definitely suit. The other mohawk ridge at 7/4 could and should be a steal the only thing that will stop this winning is my money on a fav jinx. Good luck all
Unsurprisingly, the ground has come up soft in Berkshire and Champions’ Day is bereft of potential champions like Sky Lantern, Toronado and The Fugue. The bookies have priced up the Long Distance Cup primarily on the ownership of the favourite. The Republicans do not want to see Estimate win but I would like to see HM The Queen having a Tea Party although I would not touch the horse at the artificially short odds – it would be 4/1 if A.N. Other owned it. The Fillies’ And Mares’ Stakes is a Group 1 race in name only. A month ago The Fugue would have been an odds-on shot for this but in her absence the moderate Oaks winner Talent will be trying to defy Dalkala, winner of a slowly-run Prix de l’Opera thirteen days ago. There could end up being a surprise in this but with no guarantee of pace, the French filly is the choice. The Sprint does appear an excellent opportunity for Maarek to add to his Prix de l’Abbaye victory but he makes no appeal at the odds against several other Irish raiders and a weak home team. The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes revolves around 2000 Guineas winner Dawn Approach, who does not have to face two or three serious contenders thanks to the ground and ought to be good enough if at his best after a long season; however, he makes little appeal at the likely short odds to see off the French raider Maxios, Elusive Kate (never beat the boys) and Soft Falling Rain (going concern). The application of headgear puts a question mark against Olympic Glory whilst Kingsbarns has a lot of hype to justify. Cirrus Des Aigles could end up the shortest priced favourite of the day in the Champion Stakes but his best effort this season was a penalty kick in the Prix Dollar last time and he will need to do better to win. If ultra consistent Farhh is at his best and adapts to the ground, he is perfectly capable of flooring the French gelding in a race where many of the supporting cast have questions to answer, such as Derby winner Ruler Of The World dropping down in trip. What sort of pace known front runner Mukhadram sets could be a big factor in the result (including his own chance if he goes on soft). Curiously French flop Morandi is being gambled on early doors based on his two year old heavy ground victories (winless this year).
