1. Log in now to remove adverts - no adverts at all to registered members!

Daily Racing Thread - Champions Day - Saturday 19th October

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Ron, Oct 15, 2013.

  1. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    50,203
    Likes Received:
    23,454
    1:45 Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 3) 2m
    2:20 Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 2) 6f
    2:55 Qipco British Champions Fillies´ And Mares´ Stakes (Group 1) 1m4f
    3:30 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored By Qipco) (British Champions Mile) (Group 1) 1m
    4:05 Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1) 1m2f
    4:45 Qipco Future Stars Apprentice Handicap 7f

    First 5 races on Channel 4

    View all racecards for the meeting

    Sporting Life - The Insider

    Also racing at Catterick, Cheltenham, Cork, Kelso and Wolverhampton

    SCOOP6 RACES
    2:20 ASC Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 2) 6f
    2:35 CHL Equus-Fine Dining At The Festival Handicap Chase 2m4f
    2:55 ASC Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) 1m4f
    3:30 ASC Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored By Qipco) (British Champions Mile) (Group 1) 1m
    3:45 CHL Showcase Trophy (Handicap Chase) 3m110y
    4:05 ASC Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1) 1m2f
     
    #1
  2. SMP

    SMP Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2013
    Messages:
    728
    Likes Received:
    1
    I have canadian on all current antipost favs. Small stake,will do main bets on the day

    Estimate @ 5/2OutrightOpen

    19th Oct 2013 - QIPCO British Champions Long Distance Cup

    Cirrus Des Aigles @ EVSOutrightOpen

    19th Oct 2013 - QIPCO Champion Stakes

    Talent @ 4/1OutrightOpen

    19th Oct 2013 - QIPCO British Champions Fillies' And Mares' Stakes

    Dawn Approach @ 2/1OutrightOpen

    19th Oct 2013 - Queen Elizabeth II Stakes

    Maarek @ 11/4OutrightOpen

    19th Oct 2013 - QIPCO British Champions Sprint Stakes
     
    #2
  3. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 9, 2011
    Messages:
    8,655
    Likes Received:
    1,462
    Farrh will outrun CDA sorry SMP <laugh>
     
    #3
  4. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 9, 2011
    Messages:
    8,655
    Likes Received:
    1,462
    As mentioned have been punting on Maarek all week and will continue to do so till saturday- hes a class horse, on form and will absoultey love the ground!!
     
    #4
  5. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

    Joined:
    May 31, 2011
    Messages:
    7,938
    Likes Received:
    4,951
    The main opposition to Maarek looks to be coming from across the Irish Sea in the form of Eddie Lynam&#8217;s entries: Sole Power, Slade Power, Balmont Mast and Viztoria. The sixth furlong instantly puts me off Sole Power. I love the fact that on the SportingLife website form, the Prix de l&#8217;Abbaye was four furlongs! The home defence looks very poor with Jack Dexter probably the best chance on current form.

    Whilst Estimate has been layed out for the Long Distance Cup, she is no good thing. The old boy Harris Tweed has a higher rating than her and Times Up is only a couple of pounds behind.

    In the Fillies&#8217; And Mares&#8217; Stakes, will Alain De Royer Dupre send Dalkala over from France? She won a pretty moderate race last time but there are no superstars (yet) in this field. Of the home team, I will be interested to see how Hot Snap goes for James Doyle as he has not had a great start as Mr Abdullah&#8217;s jockey.

    The betting on the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes could be in for a big shake up with the weather forecast. At the moment, Richard Hughes is down to ride known mudlark Olympic Glory, so Toronado (11/2) and Sky Lantern (14/1) are not going to show up. Elusive Kate is possibly overpriced at 12/1 whilst Soft Falling Rain is underpriced at 9/2 given the lack of form if the weather is like his name! Is Maxios crossing the Channel dependent upon the going? I would really fancy Farhh&#8217;s chances but for the very long lay off.

    If Cirrus Des Aigles&#8217; rating of 131 can still be taken on trust, he is by some way the one to beat in the Champion Stakes, but I remain unconvinced. Three of Aidan O&#8217;Brien&#8217;s four entries are also entered in the QEII, so what is going to run where? Richard Hughes is listed as the jockey for Sky Lantern here, so presumably his father-in-law is preferring this to the QEII although one expects that she will run in neither if it rains. Again, the most interesting amongst the entries is Farhh but we have not seen him since May.

    The problem with several of the leading contenders on this card is that they have not run for months, so those of us that will not get to see their wellbeing beforehand will just be watching, especially if the ground comes up soft.
     
    #5
  6. Freddy The Salmon

    Freddy The Salmon New Member

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2013
    Messages:
    13
    Likes Received:
    0
    Looking at the QE with the expected non runners and ground, it would come down to Dawn Approach and Olympic Glory for me, Dawn has only ever ran badly once over a mile and he was found to be injured afterwards so if he is back on form he should be very hard to beat, Olympic Glory should of won last time out but was given no chance at all by Dettori and Maxios stole the race, they obviously rate Toronado higher than Olympic Glory and very little separates Dawn and Toronado so if Dawn is back to his best I really struggle to see anything beating him.

    Cirrus will love the ground in the champion stakes and it looks like Declaration of War will not be running in that race, Farah is a good horse but unproven on soft ground and even his best form puts him level with the likes of Nathaniel and ST Nicholas Abbey who have both been beaten by Cirrus. If Farah does not run it looks like Mukhradam will be second fave and I do not think he is good enough to beat Cirrus on soft ground. I reckon Cirrus will go off at odds on for this race and win it well.

    I have a double on Cirrus and Dawn at 10/1 and a small saver double on Farah and Olympic Glory at about 20/1 just in case.
     
    #6

  7. cityhull

    cityhull Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2011
    Messages:
    1,315
    Likes Received:
    103
    I farhh in whatever race he contests, was really impressed with his win early in the season and I think he will be fit and ready
     
    #7
  8. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2011
    Messages:
    5,795
    Likes Received:
    2,289
    A very strange day&#8217;s racing looks set for Saturday, in my opinion, as the likely soft, or perhaps very soft, going is going to rule out many whilst owing to the time of the year many of the beasts will be &#8216;over the top&#8217; for the campaign after a long and busy season. It may be that in each race only a small few have a live chance of obliging &#8211; the difficult part is predicting which, I say which, though! In fact this looks a card in which I would much rather be a bookie chappie than a punter as the former look to have everything stacked in their favour.

    I also think it&#8217;s a heavily lopsided card as you go from heats worth £200k, £350k, £500k, £1 million, £1.3 million to a concluding handicap for &#8216;apprentices only&#8217; valued at £50k! Pretty anti-climatic that. Cor blimey old girl Agatha Christie, by contrast, would have had them all lined up in the library ready for the classic denouncement at the end of the day. An apprentices handicap for £50k is a long way from such excitement!

    Another bit of race planning that wants looking at sharply, incidentally, concerns the old 2 mile+ stayers. After the Gold Cup in June there are some nice heats for such animals but the 2 most valuable in the UK, after that date, are both run within 7 days of each other &#8211; the £250,000 Ces and the £200,000 Long Distance Cup. Surely at least a 4 week gap should exist so that horses have the opportunity to run in both lucrative contests (although in saying that Pallastor made do both this term).
     
    #8
  9. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    50,203
    Likes Received:
    23,454
    Welcome Freddy
     
    #9
  10. Black Caviar

    Black Caviar 1 of the top judges in Europe

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2012
    Messages:
    43,695
    Likes Received:
    58,492
    Had two good bets today, Maxios 6/1 and Farhh 4/1, they are two I like and I am very happy with the prices.
     
    #10
  11. Freddy The Salmon

    Freddy The Salmon New Member

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2013
    Messages:
    13
    Likes Received:
    0
    Cheers Ron, have been lurking for a while so thought I would join in:biggrin:
     
    #11
  12. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

    Joined:
    May 31, 2011
    Messages:
    7,938
    Likes Received:
    4,951
    Twelve face the starter in the QEII, headed by Dawn Approach but they do not include Farhh who is in the Champion Stakes and Toronado because of the ground. The biggest danger may still turn out to be cross-Channel raider Maxios, who stole the Prix Du Moulin as the likes of Olympic Glory allowed him to dictate. Ballydoyle field just Kingsbarns from their entries.

    Ten go to post for the Champion Stakes, with Cirrus Des Aigles looking to collect for the second time after being put in his place by &#8220;The Greatest&#8221; last year. No surprise that Sky Lantern is staying at home whilst Aidan O&#8217;Brien is only represented by Ruler Of The World. It is difficult to fancy the other French raiders as Morandi has disappointed all season and Triple Threat simply does not look good enough on recent performances. Mukhadram returns from a long layoff.

    The Fillies&#8217; And Mares&#8217; Stakes has reduced to just nine and could also be exported across the Channel as Dalkala has stood her ground for France or perhaps German raider Nymphea could spring a bit of a surprise.
     
    #12
  13. ROTO

    ROTO Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2011
    Messages:
    2,397
    Likes Received:
    72
    Anyone know why Maarek doesn't have to carry a Group 1 penalty for winning the Abbaye? Wizz Kid had to carry one in the corresponding contest last year.

    Only concern about Maarek I have is that there doesn't look like an awful lot of pace in the race which would definitely be against him. Absolutely the one they all have to beat.
     
    #13
  14. DAYO10

    DAYO10 Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2011
    Messages:
    679
    Likes Received:
    68
    Can't wait I'm off there Saturday :)
     
    #14
  15. beeforsalmon

    beeforsalmon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 8, 2011
    Messages:
    5,394
    Likes Received:
    1,325
    Eddie you're deserting of Dawn Approach on his swansong is slightly disconcerting! I've looked at that QE 2 and even though the ground is going to make things tougher for Dawn I'd be pretty confident he could see off that field. He's won stronger races this year IMO and I'd be trusting Mr Bolger has the old boy prepared to absolutely run the race of his life...
     
    #15
  16. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2011
    Messages:
    9,716
    Likes Received:
    3,377
    Dawn Approach over the straight mile will suit. He definitely wasn't right in France and he will be primed for this. Detractors will say he regressed after Toronado got within a short head followed by revenge but believe me Toronado is a serious racehorse (though fragile and with some issues) but you will see how good he is when he wins the Breeders Cup mile ;) Haha.

    I trust the ratings of Dawn Approach and unless Maxios has had a revival and improvement at the same time, he won't be winning. Also, Dawn Approach will never give him the head start that Olympic Glory did.


    The Champion stakes is between FARHH and RULER OF THE WORLD for me. Farrh is bred for the ground and his unlucky 3rd in the Prince Of Wales last year suggests he can match horses of So You Thinks calibre, which on formlines means any signa of regression for Cirrus Des Aigles (and there have been plenty) then Farhh will capitalise. Ruler Of The World is closely matched with Al Kazeem on Arc running and that puts him in the picture if Farhh does not fire after his break.
     
    #16
  17. Brough Tiger

    Brough Tiger Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2011
    Messages:
    1,245
    Likes Received:
    34
    I was going to be all over Farhh in which ever race he runs in and now its confirmed then i will be all over him in the Champions Stakes. Only been beaten by top top class horses, runs particularly well fresh, and, with Cirrus not convincing me that he is as good as he was, i am supremely confident that he will win.
     
    #17
  18. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 9, 2011
    Messages:
    8,655
    Likes Received:
    1,462
    I shall be there saturdau on racemaking duties again soo any of the forum there come say i high will be wearing a racemaker jacket and probably blue and white striped short
     
    #18
  19. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 9, 2011
    Messages:
    8,655
    Likes Received:
    1,462
    R pm me ur mob and will meet u for a beer after my duties after the 3rd race
     
    #19
  20. Black Caviar

    Black Caviar 1 of the top judges in Europe

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2012
    Messages:
    43,695
    Likes Received:
    58,492
    The ground has to be a slight concern, even though I think he is a horse who could run big on any ground, at the top level you need to everything to be right. Im more worried about whether or not we will see the real Dawn Approach again, at his best I would fancy him to beat Maxios, but when I look at it, I think they might have ruined the horse this season. The Derby and Marois should never have happened and I think it takes a lot of faith to have a serious bet on Dawn Approach at 2/1 in these circumstances. If Bolger has managed to get him back then 2/1 would look decent but I know what im getting from Maxios, a horse I have liked all season, who owes me nothing, who will love the ground and was way overpriced at 6/1 in my book. Maxios is underrated and he might just be peaking as a horse at the right time. I wouldnt oppose Dawn Approach lightly but it was a numbers call and at the prices, it was a very easy decision.

    If the Dawn romps in, there wont be many happier than me for him but I wont be kicking myself for not taking 2/1.
     
    #20

Share This Page