At the risk of sounding like a one trick pony I have to highlight Hanibal The Great 1.55 Fontwell tomorrow. He ran GONE TOO FAR pretty close at the backend of last season and is definitely the type to improve now going hurdling. His trainer describes him as an "exciting prospect" and it will be hugely disappointing if he doesn't win this! In the 3.05 Act Of Kalanisi 6-1 has slipped to a very handy mark of 130. Dr Newland does pretty well at this course and this fella is very interesting reverting to hurdles this season. Quite frankly off this mark he is banker material.
Sorry and at Newmarket Ajman Bridge at 7/4 in the 17.15 looks very interesting while for a hopeful ew shot I'll go for Extremity 16/1 in the 14.20
2.55 Newmarket Fort Bastion 15/2 A very talented 2 and 3 year old for Richard Hannon, Fort Bastion has been very disappointing so far this year in his two completed starts but this 4 year old has been gelded since his last run and if that sees him return to the smart form he showed in the past couple of years he could be very tough to beat returned to handicap company off a mark of 102. When trained by Hannon, Fort Bastion showed some very useful form as a Juvenile when finishing runner up to the excellent Maybe on his 2nd start and confirmed that promise with a very good 2nd in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes at York in a race that has worked out well. His final start as a 2 year old came in a Group 1 at Longchamp and although last of the 7 (only beaten a little over 3L), I think it says a lot about the regard he was held in. Fort Bastion certainly progressed as a 3 year old where he only had 2 starts but he ran out an impressive victor on both outings. He won a poor Maiden in facile fashion by 12L last May but he was a very impressive winner of a 3 runner Conditions race on his final start later that month. In a race run at a good clip, Richard Hughes made a race winning move as he allowed his mount to quicken up at the 2f pole and Fort Bastion did so in fine style as he lengthened away from his rivals in a short space of time. The runner up Starbound (whose jockey William Buick was probably caught napping) couldn't bridge the gap as Fort Bastion ran out a convincing 4L winner. That form took a substantial boost with Starbound winning a Group 3 at Longchamp comfortably later that year and prior to this year Fort Bastion looked like he was on course for his best season yet. Prior to making his solitary start for Ed Dunlop, he had an early (and ambitious entry) in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot which I think says a lot about how he was working but he was very disappointing in a Listed handicap at York under top weight off a mark of 106. Owner Sir Robert Ogden quickly moved him to Richard Fahey's yard but his first start was a disaster as he unseated at the start in a Listed contest at York in August. Fort Bastion's first proper run for Fahey again came in a Listed contest last month when pretty disappointing at Newbury in soft ground and Fahey has said in his preview for today's contest that he thought he'd run a much better race than he did and he had been working really well at home. As a result of that under par display, Fort Bastion has been gelded since his last run and I'm hoping that allows him to show his best on the racecourse again as I think he is a very decent animal at his best. Returned to handicap company off a mark of 102, this C+D winner would take an awful lot of beating in my opinion if the gelding operation works and I think he'll appreciate the sounder surface as well. William Buick is an extremely eye catching booking on what will be 3rd start for Richard Fahey (1-2) and first start since 2010 and he also boasts an excellent strike rate of 4-15 for owner Sir Robert Ogden. Well drawn in stall 2, if the gelding operation allows Fort Bastion to return to the level of form he showed during his 2 and 3 year old campaigns then I think he has an outstanding chance of landing this contest before hopefully continuing the progression he look set to show before embarking on his 4 year old campaign.
3.15 Ascot Soul 7/1 Saeed Bin Suroor's very decent 6 year old sprinter wasn't at his best on his first couple of starts this year but shaped much better on his latest start in the Group 1 Betfred Sprint Stakes and if taking another step forward then hopefully he can improve on his narrowly beaten 2nd in this last year with a win today. Formerly trained by Peter Snowden in Australia where he picked won a Group 2 and a couple of Listed races, Soul was transferred to the care of Saeed Bin Suroor in early 2012 and he made an instant and emphatic impression when winning comfortably winning a competitive handicap off a mark of 109 at Meydan in March of that year on turf. After an ok introduction on his first British start, Soul ran an absolute blinder in the Diamon Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot last year when beaten a little over a length in the eventful Black Caviar renewal and he showed that run was no fluke when storming to a 4L success in a Group 3 in the mud on his next start in July 2012. Soul was disappointing on his next 2 starts upped to 7f in Group 2 last year before bouncing back in this corresponding race when going down by a very gutsy head to the progressive Mince on his season finale. Carrying a 4lb penalty that day for his Group 3 success that he doesn't have today, Soul was prominent throughout the contest and after getting into a protracted battle in the final couple of furlongs with eventual victor Mince he went down battling by a head as he lost nothing in defeat. Conceding 8lb to that filly, Soul bumped into one of the most progressive horses of last year in Mince who had impressively won her 3 previous starts and it was another excellent effort from this Australian import. After a long season that started in Meydan and took in 8 races, Soul deservedly went on a near 10 month break before reappearing this season. Although he disappointed on his first 2 starts of the year in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes and in a Listed contest at Chester, he ran a race filled with much more promise when 5th in the Betfred Sprint Cup last month and I think he should be cherry ripe for this contest. Getting in here 4lb lighter than last year without a penalty, Silvestre De Sousa is back on board this gelding who he clearly gets on very well with and the softer the ground the better for Soul today (although he can handle a quicker surface). A horse who clearly goes very well over this C+D, if building on his latest run then I think Soul has an excellent chance in this contest and I think 7/1 is a very decent price about him to go one better than last year. 3.50 Ascot Big Johnny D 9/1 Big Johnny D has been a revelation since joining David Barron and dropped back to 7f this year winning his last 3 starts very convincingly and despite going up another 9lb for his latest success it seems like there is a lot more still to come from this lightly raced 4 year old. A Maiden for John Dunlop having raced over 7f-1m4f, Big Johnny D joined David Barron this year and he's been a revelation for North Yorkshire based handler. After running a solid race in a Maiden on seasonal reappearance and stable debut over 9f, Big Johnny D's form has taken off with 3 successes dropped back to 7f. After landing a Maiden comfortably over at Newcastle back in April, Big Johnny D absolutely destroyed a competitive handicap at Redcar off a mark of 75 easily by over 4L from the front in a contest that has worked out very well and a 13lb rise to a mark of 88 could not stop him as he landed his hat trick in tremendous style. On soft ground at Redcar last month, Big Johnny D again made all from the front to score by a comfortable 2L and although the form of that race looks poor in hindsight it was the manner of his victory that really impressed me the most. He travelled beautifully on the front end for Graham Gibbons and he only had to get slightly serious with him very briefly as he scored another commanding success. Given the visual impression of his victory, a 9lb rise to 97 seems very fair and I am sure that we haven't yet gotten to the bottom of this 4 year old. He takes a huge step up in grade from a 0-90 event to this handicap where Ascription heads the weights off a mark of 109 and although this is going to clearly take a massive increase in performance Big Johnny D has yet to be troubled recently and I see no reason why he can't take to this better race in his stride. Drawn in stall 2, there doesn't seem to be many natural front runners which should suit his front running style but if something does try to set a quick pace in the race it will be interesting if Graham Gibbons tries to get a lead because given how well he travels I think he may be even better sitting just in behind a fast pace. David Barron goes double fisted in this contest and his other runner Bertiewhittle certainly isn't out of things and comes here in good form but I definitely think ground versatile Big Johnny D is his principal hope. If not horrifically inconvenienced by the draw, I expect another big showing from Big Johnny D today and I think 9/1 is an excellent price as I think he has a great chance of taking this very competitive and valuable prize.
Penitent 2.08 @ Longchamp 12/1 ew. Reasoning fairly simple - the horse gets his beloved soft ground today. Further confidence is drawn from the fact that there are negatives for both of the market leaders. Mshawish has never raced on anything worse than good to soft. Gregorian has beaten Penitent before but will have to do it this time of 7lb worse terms. Only negative is a wider than ideal draw but I'm siding with this seasoned campaigner to serve it up to his younger rivals. Also getting back on the Oisin Murphy gravy train today with 2 of his rides at Redcar. Trading Profit 7/1, 3.30 and Presburg 9/1, 4.35. Good luck all.
I know lightning doesn't strike twice and all that, but Oisin Murphy has 4 nice looking rides at Redcar, might be worth an e/w Lucky 15? Edit: Oops just seen your post Chan, yep I'm on the gravy train too - they'll probably all go off way shorter than they should be now
Over at Longchamp, I like the look of John Gosden's 2 runners for Princess Haya - Gregorian in the Daniel WIldenstein and Pomology in the following race - singles and an e/w double. Does anybody trust Cirrus Des Aigles to win the Prix Dollar? You can't fault Mark Johnston for effort so it would be nice to see his Maputo land a nice prize.
Not sure on this soft ground malarkey, no rain yesterday, none forecast today and warmish weather too. Might not be as soft as some think
Some decent jumpas action today and I like the look of the following: 3.35 Gowran Park - Ravished. On his 2 starts last season Mouse Morris' Oscar gelding was unlucky enough to run into Jezki and Minsk. There doesn't look to be anything of that quality in the field today and with the summer on his back I'd be hopeful (and nothing more than that) of a bolder showing. 4.05 Gowran Park - Baresi. I'm loathe to desert The Crafty Butcher who was a good winner for me a couple of weeks ago, but on his previous 2 attempts at 3 miles he didn't look to stay and he goes off a career-high mark today. The one I am going with is Baresi who ran a fine second on his debut for the Charles Byrnes yard behind Blackwell Synergy at Listowel a couple of weeks ago. Baresi has a nice 4lbs pull in the weights plus the 7lbs claim of his rider and he could be the answer in this tricky handicap. 3.05 Fontwell - Act Of Kalanisi. Dr Newland has a great eye for a handicap opportunity and seems to have found one here for Act Of Kalanisi back over hurdles. Placed efforts behind Gibb River and Swincombe Flame off a mark of 134 put him right in the thick of things here off 130. 3.40 Fontwell - Milgen Bay. The dreaded 8 runners here but if they all go to post then Milgen Bay looks a nice e/w prospect. Oliver Sherwood's Generous gelding has some decent novice form in the book, including when 3rd to Our Mick at Kempton but since those days he has managed just 1 victory off a mark of 110 at Leicester. However, he showed he is starting to get competitive again when 3rd last time out, also off 110, at Bangor. He's dropped to 107 after that race and today could be the day to catch him. If I'm wrong, watch out for him next time over 2 miles. 5.50 Fontwell - Third Act. Any Tizzard bumper runner carrying Jean Bishop's colours is automatically pigeon-holed as the next Cue Card but I think Third Act is the class act of the field here both on breeding and form. He was unlucky on debut when stumbling badly half a mile out and losing significant ground as a result. Try as he may, Joe Tizzard couldn't close the gap on the front two but I think time may well prove that the 2 horses which beat him that day, Paul Nicholls Howlongisafoot and Harry Fry's Presenting The Way, are both smart types. Without the stumble Third Act would have been alot closer and may well have won and I'm sure Colin Tizzard will have him spot on for this. No prices yet apart from 29/16 on Betfair but if I can get some early 5/2 I'll be taking a healthy slice. I can see him being backed off the boards for this. E/W Lucky 15 on the first 4 above and a win bet on Third Act if the price is right. Best of luck everyone
Official ground at ascot as per 7.19am this morning is soft....for me at best come race time its gonna be good to soft...
Morning campers....2 bets for me today...Ascot 3.15pm Soul 7/1 BPG ew. 2nd in race last yeae and conditions to suit. Ascot 3.50pm Loving Spirit 9/1 ew BPG.. Hasnt won for some time but usually runs well in these big fields. cut in ground will suit..
Bloody hell 7/4 Third Party .................... tight bastards. Might have to revert to the forecast with Lily Waugh - can't see anything else getting involved.
Scoop 6, EW lucky 63: 1:50 Newmarket - Night Song 3/1 2:20 Newmarket - Jallota 6/1 2:40 Ascot - Gospel Choir 4/1 3:15 Ascot - Kavanagh 16/1 3:30 Redcar - Ben Hall 12/1 3:50 Ascot - Sirius Prospect 10/1 And 3 over in France: 2:08 - Gregorian 5/1 2:40 - Riposte 9/2 3:15 - Mapurto 5/1
Bonjour mes amis ..sticking with les Francais today longchamp 1-30 Valirann 5/2 2.08 Mshawish 13/2 2.40 Yellow and Green 7/2 3.15 Planteur 5/1 Gutted about Novellist missing Arc. Murtagh will be feeling even worse than he did yesterday after that crass tabloid photoshop mock up by the RP front page. Looks like a straight shoot out between Treve and Orfevre and think the filly will nick it (bad luck Frankie) though Al Kaz will like the cut in ground and worth a place bet at around 16's
