Saturday 21st September Daily Thread

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R

ROTO

Well-Known Member
Jun 20, 2011
2,397
72
48
Dublin, Ireland
3.50 Ayr

Humidor 66/1

George Baker's 6 year old sprinter is a very decent animal on his day and I think he's going to really appreciate the step up to 6f on soft ground having bagged what looks the pick of the draw in stall 27. A very admirable servant to connections, this 6 time winner's career highlight undoubtedly came when a strong finishing 4th in last years Nunthorpe and although he's winless in over 2 years he seems to retain all his enthusiasm for the game. For the most part, Humidor has ran consistently well this season without quite making the frame and this well travelled individual looks to be on a decent mark of 102 in this ultra competitive handicap. Having started off the year with an excellent 4th in Meydan over 6f off a mark of 109 back in March, Humidor returned to the UK with an very decent 2nd to the talented Spirit Quartz in a Conditions Race at Nottingham back in April. He then was sent to France for his next 2 starts when running very credibly on both occasions when a fast finishing 2L beaten 7th at Longchamp over 5f in a Group 3 and he was also beaten about the same distance in a Listed Race at Maisons-Laffittes back in June. He was perhaps a little disappointing on his last couple of starts but neither were awful efforts either. He was staying on in the Stewards Cup (would never have been involved) when hampered off a mark of 104 last month and on the face of it he looked like he spurned a good opportunity to get back into the winners enclosure when only 3rd in a Conditions Race at 10 days ago. Sent off a 7/4 shot over 5f at Leicester on good to firm ground, Humidor was held out the back of the 5 runner field and he found the pace too quick for him before staying on to be a 2L beaten 3rd.

On his website the next day, George Baker says he needs it "proper soft" to be effective over the minimum trip these days and I definitely agree as he has been seen to run on strongly on many of his races over 5f on good ground. Although still a very talented individual, at 6 years old he probably just doesn't have the speed at the top level over 5f anymore and I think he'll relish the return to 6f today. Additionally, I think the soft underfoot conditions will be very much to his liking as well and I think his current price of 66/1 looks a bit ridiculous. Judged on today's sprints at Ayr, high numbers seem to be favoured and given that both big sprint winners came directly against the stands side rail Humidor could not be berthed in a better position than stall 27 if tomorrow follows the same trend. Trainer George Baker has his form in absolutely superb form at the moment with 8 winners in the last 2 weeks and I'm hoping he has Humidor spot on for this today. Pat Cosgrave takes the ride in this ultra competitive handicap and if Humidor is going make the frame he's undoubtedly going to need luck in running. A very talented animal on his day, I think a mark of 102 is one that Humidor can win off and hopefully he can run a really big race at a huge, huge price. Of the others, I think Baccarat 9/1 has a big run in him and I think Keith Dalgleish's 135k French import Lover Man 28/1 looks on a fair mark of 101 on his British debut.
 
Was given Gabrials Lad in the 3:50 Ayr earlier in the week at 16s was told they expect it to go off at single figure odds around the 8/1 mark and am on with a decent EW
 
2.40 Ayr

Gandalak 16/1

After an amazing season, I think David O'Meara has firmly planted himself in the upper echelon of trainers in the UK and I think his 4 year old Gandalak could well have been plotted for this race. Having shown decent form in France as a 3 year old, Gandalak joined O'Meara earlier this year and after a couple of solid efforts over 5f at Wolves and Musselburgh he won for the first time in Britain when making all to score impressively over 6f at Newcastle back in April off a mark of 81. He followed that up off a 5lb higher mark when running out an unchallenged winner over 7f at Musselburgh as he sauntered an eased 4.5L success which would have been closer to 10L if Danny Tudhope had ridden out to the line. Although neither of those wins form has worked out overly well, the visual impression he created both days was of a horse on a massively upward curve and its probably a little disappointing that he didn't kick on from there. That win saw Gandalak raised 9lb to a mark of 95 and he's been a little disappointing on his 3 subsequent starts over 6f, 7f and a mile but the handicapper has relented 4lb dropping him to a mark of 91 and he comes here on the back of a 3 month break. Additionally, he sports first time blinkers which will hopefully jolt him back into life on ground he should really relish. Drawn well in stall 18, the talented David Bergin takes a very useful 5lb off his back to get him down to 8-13 which should could prove very important in the testing conditions. If looking back to his 2 earlier wins this season, his current mark of 91 looks extremely workable and I think the short break and first time headgear will definitely see this 4 year old leave his previous 3 runs behind him. If he's been targeted at this race like I feel he has, I think he has got an outstanding chance in this contest and hopefully this can be another big race win on the steadily increasing CV of the excellent David O'Meara

3.30 Newbury Maarek 6/1. Gets his conditions. No need to say more.

4.15 Newmarket

Nenge Mboko 9/2

Unfortunately the price isn't as good when I put him up recently when a non runner for a similar event but I think Nenge Mboko is going to take a ridiculous amount of beating in this contest. George Baker's 3 year old has been transformed with the application of a visor and I think there is still a lot more to come. Looking a frustrating horse at times, Nenge Mboko barely scrambled home over 6f in a seller by a short head at Windsor back in July but that confidence has clearly done him the world of good. Having easily dispatched of another seller 3 starts ago at Nottingham, Nenge Mboko returned to handicap company off a mark of 80 at Windsor over 6f when winning very cheekily by a neck when justifying his late market support. In a 3 year old handicap under Pat Cosgrave, Nenge Mboko travelled well throughout the race and Cosgrave was a cool customer as he never resorted to using the whip (shook him along vigorously at times) as he was well in control at the finish to land the hat trick in fine style. The runner up Jontleman ran very well on his 3 next starts since including when winning well off a 3lb higher mark and that performance clearly showed Nenge Mboko was very much a horse on the way up. 9 days later Nenge Mboko turned out under a 6lb penalty at Glorious Goodwood over 7f and although he ended up a just over 3L beaten 5th I think he would have won had the race been over 6f and that the trip just stretched him. Having travelled well throughout the contest, Nenge Mboko hit the front just outside the final furlong and stayed there until about the final 100 or so yards as he could find no more at the finish as he hung right late on. Trainer George Baker posted on his site that jockey Pat Cosgrave told him he would have won if it was a 6f contest and the drop back to that trip today is a massive positive. Furthermore, the front 4 that swamped him late on all came near side whereas Nenge Mboko finished on the far side of the track and its definitely plausible that he ended up on the slower part of the track.

That race against elders when only one of two 3 year olds (other tailed off) has worked out really well from the small sample of horses to run since. The winner Magic City has since won readily off a 7lb higher mark whilst the 2nd and 6th home have both won well since off the same mark and thats not at all surprising given how competitive handicaps at Glorious Goodwood are. He's been freshened up with 52 days off the track (previous 4 runs in the space of 30 days) and is now 1lb lower off a mark of 85 as the handicapper has reassessed. I think the drop back to 6f is key for Nenge Mboko and eased back in grade to a Class 4 this looks a much easier contest. With Pat Cosgrave riding at Ayr, William Buick takes the ride and is a superb deputy and the draw in stall 5 looks perfect for him. There seems a decent bit of pace in the race which should ideally suit this smooth travelling sort and I really think its going to take a well handicapped animal to defy Nenge Mboko today. Of the opposition, Breccbennach looks the bigges threat to me having been only raised 4lb for his latest victory. If the race is run at a good clip and Nenge Mboko gets an uninterrupted passage, I would be absolutely shocked if he isn't in the first 3 home but I strongly fancy him to land this contest and I've had a good sized wager on him to do just that as he is unquestionably my best bet of the day.
 
Morning all, some great big fields to throw darts at so an eway Lucky 15 for me...

2:40 Ayr - Colonel Mak 10/1
2:55 Newb - Benzanno 12/1
3:15 Ayr - City Zen 22/1
3:50 Ayr - Our Jonathan 18/1

Good luck all!!
 
Its going to be Glee fest at Ayr today ive backed Braidley 4s, Take Cover 12s, Blockade 11s and Jack Dexter 10s

When i text him last night and told him what i was backing and said No Pressure, he replied Pressure is for tyres, he is focused today

Stay Frosty
 
These sprints are virtually impossible to pick the winner and so many could win the Ayr Gold Cup... Ground is not as soft as they were predicting.. I like the look of Baccarat and Highland Colori. But I've backed Louis The Pious at 33/1 e.w 5 places. My only bet of the day.Being drawn relatively high will help too. Good luck on the lottery everyone!
 
A few fancies at Ayr today 3 of which will be ridden by claimer who has never previously ridden at the course! However cometh the hour cometh the man in the shape of Oisin Murphy. Highland Colori in the Ayr Gold Cup. Runner up in last years Silver Cup but won his side comfortably. Stays further and handles the ground - form figs on soft 7212. A very consistent sort I think he's a great each way punt at 20s. Also think Levitate 4.25 ran better last week than the bare stats suggest so will have another dabble at 13/2.
For a fanciful ew L15 add in Cockney Sparrow in the lucky last and Stonefield Flyer, rank outsider but unexposed who will hopefully show a bit better form than his trainer who was guest on Channel 4 this morning.
Good luck all.
 
Ayr
1.30 Tiger Twenty Two 14/1
2.05 First Mohican 3/1
2.40 Polski Max 40/1
3.50 Lightning Cloud 25/1 NAP

Newbury
2.20 Supplicant 9/2
2.55 Disclaimer 7/1
3.30 Steps 6/1
 
Master, if you don't mind, whats your reasoning behind napping lightning cloud? I pretty much dismissed the horse straight away.
 
I like him at the weights and he goes on the ground, on his best form he would have a good chance but he can be hit and miss and slight worry that maybe Ayr isnt his track, but they have had this race in mind for him since he won at Ascot.

Also Kevin Ryan has a great record in the race and this looks the best handicapped of his.

Quite a lot of the horses I pick in sprint handicaps are horses who get overlooked or dismissed easily at a glance, thats what im looking for in these types of races.

If you look back at all my winners at double figures on here, you will find the vast majority of them are sprint handicaps.
 
To be fair, I shouldnt really have napped it, if I could only have one bet today I wouldnt be waiting for the Ayr Gold Cup but its the big race of the day and you need to be ambitious!
 
That's what threw me a bit the nap part. Although i do remember you napping Doc Hay @ 20/1 and saying it was a certainty in last years portland i think. <cheers>
 
Just watched a few minutes ago the official opening of the 180th Oktoberfest by the Lord Mayor of Munich, Herr Ude. Spot-on with the barrel-bung as usual! So, Heisenburg, have a great Glee Fest. Good luck to you with your selections.

Have a successful day punting everyone! <cheers>
 
Channel 4 racing: no bet. When was the last time that the Ayr Western meeting was run on fast ground? With soft ground at Newbury as well, Newmarket looks like the only place to bet.

There is a theme here:

In the Newmarket 4:15, it has to be the George Baker trained Nenge Mboko with William Buick aboard. As ROTO has already done an in-depth analysis, I will refer you to that.

In the Newmarket 5:25, jockey George Baker is aboard overpriced 14/1 chance Opera Box, stepping up to a mile and a half; however, also stepping up in trip is the William Buick ridden Willow Beck and I am going for the William Buick double this afternoon, not the George Baker one.

In the last at 5:55, Askaud has won three of the last four but has gone up 8lb for the last of those and has it all to do against a couple at the bottom of the weights. Brownsea Brink is a front runner and may not have it all his own way in a big field, so I am going for Kohlaan, winner of four of his last five and raised 7lb for the most recent, with the main worry being the slow ground as his wins are on Good to Firm.
 
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