Feck me, I actually predicted all of those results myself that's incredible ! You know what they say Superman "Great minds.......and all that"
Saturday 21st September Norwich 1-1 Aston Villa Liverpool 2-0 Southampton Newcastle 2-0 Hull West Brom 2-1 Sunderland West Ham 0-0 Everton Chelsea 2-0 Fulham Sunday 22nd September Arsenal 2-1 Stoke Crystal Palace 0-1 Swansea Cardiff 2-1 Tottenham Man City 0-0 Man Utd Gotta score heavily this weekend - need that pole position lol !
It's not really possible to calculate the odds.If there had been any really left field predictions like 0-4 or just really unlikely results such as a Fulham win at Chelsea or Sothampton at Anfield then it would have been far more unlikely that two people had predicted exactly the same result.As the predictions are pretty much in line with expectations then my guess might be 100/1.
Saturday 21st September Norwich 2-1 Aston Villa Liverpool 2-0 Southampton Newcastle 1-0 Hull West Brom 1-0 Sunderland West Ham 0-1 Everton Chelsea 3-0 Fulham Sunday 22nd September Arsenal 3-1 Stoke Crystal Palace 1-2 Swansea Cardiff 0-2 Tottenham Man City 2-2 Man Utd
Saturday 21st September Norwich 2 - 0 Aston Villa Liverpool 2 - 1 Southampton Newcastle 1 - 0 Hull West Brom 1 - 1 Sunderland West Ham 0 - 1 Everton Chelsea 3 - 0 Fulham Sunday 22nd September Arsenal 2 - 0 Stoke Crystal Palace 0 - 1 Swansea Cardiff 1 - 1 Tottenham Man City 1 - 2 Man Utd
Saturday 21st September Norwich 0-0 Aston Villa Liverpool 2-0 Southampton Newcastle 1-1 Hull West Brom 1-0 Sunderland West Ham 1-1 Everton Chelsea 2-0 Fulham Sunday 22nd September Arsenal 2-0 Stoke Crystal Palace 1-1 Swansea Cardiff 0-2 Tottenham Man City 0-1 Man Utd
Saturday 21st September Norwich 3-2 Aston Villa Liverpool 2-0 Southampton Newcastle 2-0 Hull West Brom 2-1 Sunderland West Ham 0-2 Everton Chelsea 3-1 Fulham Sunday 22nd September Arsenal 3-0 Stoke Crystal Palace 1-2 Swansea Cardiff 1-3 Tottenham Man City 2-0 Man Utd
Been doing a bit more thinking on that.At first I thought it must be hellishly long odds,something in the order of predicting the correct score in every match but on further consideration it probably isn't for the following reason: Most weeks we get a "rogue" result.A good example was last night's Chelsea 1 Basle 2That is one would draw very long odds in itself possibly 8/1 against.In our prediction game we have a tendency to predict the most likely outcomes,so 1-0,1-1 2-0 and 2-1 scorelines are most likely overrepresented because they are the ones likely to bring us the magic five points. Do other people look at previous predictor's selections? I know I do because I recall seeing someone saying that we can't all predict our result as 2-1.I'm not saying that anyone copies other predictions,just maybe takes them into account when making our own.It will be interesting to see if we get two identical predictions again.My guess is that it might happen again this season because we are talking several hundred predictions per season. PS- Maybe I should have posted this on the Numbers Game thread.
i wasn't expecting an answer! can't say i look at other predictions because i'm normally first to post. i always go with my initial gut instinct - i never change it
Saturday 21st September Norwich 2-0 Aston Villa Liverpool 1-1 Southampton Newcastle 1-0 Hull West Brom 1-1 Sunderland West Ham 1-2 Everton Chelsea 3-0 Fulham Sunday 22nd September Arsenal 2-0 Stoke Crystal Palace 1-1 Swansea Cardiff 0-3 Tottenham Man City 2-2 Man Utd
Surely it must be more than 100/1. Even if we make the odds of two people getting the same score equal to that of two people tossing a coin and getting the same result (and it must be more since there are far more possible answers), it would be much higher than that on the tenth time, wouldn't it? (But my background is the arts, not the sciences, so I'm probably talking out of my posterior.)
Missed the boat on this so far, but I'll join in just to make your life more difficult Supers! Saturday 21st September Norwich 2-2 Aston Villa Liverpool 1-0 Southampton Newcastle 2-0 Hull West Brom 0-0 Sunderland West Ham 0-2 Everton Chelsea 3-2 Fulham Sunday 22nd September Arsenal 2-0 Stoke Crystal Palace 1-2 Swansea Cardiff 1-3 Tottenham Man City 2-1 Man Utd
Saturday 21st September Norwich 1 - 0 Aston Villa Liverpool 2 - 0 Southampton Newcastle 2 - 1 Hull West Brom 0 - 0 Sunderland West Ham 1 - 2 Everton Chelsea 2 - 0 Fulham Sunday 22nd September Arsenal 2 - 0 Stoke Crystal Palace 1 - 1 Swansea Cardiff 0 - 1 Tottenham Man City 2 - 1 Man Utd
Yes,if you see my subsequent post you will see I revised that.Actually the 50/50 option gives 512/1 against it happening.
Saturday 21st September Norwich 2 - 1 Aston Villa Liverpool 3 - 1 Southampton Newcastle 3 - 1 Hull West Brom 1 - 0 Sunderland West Ham 1 - 2 Everton Chelsea 3 - 0 Fulham Sunday 22nd September Arsenal 3 - 1 Stoke Crystal Palace 1 - 2 Swansea Cardiff 0 - 3 Tottenham Man City 2 - 1 Man Utd
If all results were equally likely (which they are not) the probability of KIO predicating the same result (win lose or draw) after supers has predicted is 1/3 per result, for him to do it 10 times in a row then the probability is (1/3)^10 which is 1/59049. So unlikely. However both are informed by the knowledge that, for example stoke are very unlikely to will 5-0 against Arsenal which make the probability harder to predict, If we were to say on average there are only 4 realistic score lines Eg the norwich score is probably going to be 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 or 2-2 there may be more but i think some have fewer likely results. so calling the average Probability 1/4 then getting all 10 the same is 1/1048576. if you say there are and average of 6 likely results the probability jumps to about 1 in 60 million. The probability of winning the lottery is 1 in 14 million. This is basically why accumulators and pools pay out so much money. There is however another factor, both are informed football fans which does make the probability of them predicting the same results far more likely. Accounting for this probability is far beyond my mathematical skill and game theory is involved in these predictions as the aim is to predict the most likely result as whilst there may be an upset, predicting the most likely result in every game should average out higher than predicting 10 upsets and only getting 1 or 2 right as each game and result is weighted the same there are no more points for predicting an upset. There is also the argument that Supers predictions were published when KIO did his predictions, he likely read them at least suncosiously and could well have been influenced without even knowing it. That said the odds will still be pretty long. Anyone have a PHD in Combinatorics or Game theory?
