The best odds available for the big Longchamp showpiece have not fluctuated very much lately given the lack of big middle distance races that can influence them (src: Oddschecker): 5/1 Flintshire 6/1 Novellist 13/2 Al Kazeem 7/1 Orfevre 8/1 Treve* 10/1 Intello 16/1 Triple Threat, Kizuna, Vancouverite* 20/1 Magician, Remote*, Esoterique* 25/1 Ruler Of The World, Telescope, Manndawi, Alive Alive Oh* 33/1 Morandi, Dunaden, Chicquita*, Ocovango, Penglai Pavilion, Trading Leather, Wild Coco, Sky Hunter, Lucky Speed, Shikarpour, Galileo Rock*, Toronado* 40/1 Pastorius, Masterstroke, Ridasiyna, Meandre (* = needs to be supplemented) What prospective punters may need to take into account is how some of these may start getting weeded out in the next ten days or so. On Thursday at Deauville, the Prix Guillaume D’Ornano was an Andre Fabre benefit as Vancouverite (owned by Godolphin) beat second string Pilote. In that ten furlong race, Silasol came with a late run but was never a danger, Richard Hannon’s Havana Gold never featured and favourite Morandi was given every chance but faded away in the last furlong. Vancouverite won readily enough and may represent the best prospect of Godolphin even having a runner this year but will have to be supplemented. It is hard to find any reason not to eliminate Morandi and Silasol from contention. On Sunday at Deauville, the Prix Jean Romanet for older fillies over ten furlongs was won by Romantica. She is not quoted for the October showpiece. The next big middle distance event on the other side of the Channel is the Grand Prix de Deauville. The Juddmonte International could see the front runners shaken up depending on how Al Kazeem fares, so punters that fancy any of the front four in the market might be advised to take a view now. Personally, I think there is good reason to wonder whether Al Kazeem will win on the flat Knavesmire track with its long straight and connections may opt to stick to ten furlongs and skip Paris. If he wins easily they may decide to go Irish Champion Stakes and (English) Champion Stakes. With question marks against Intello stepping up to twelve furlongs, the front six in the betting could look radically different by September. The most recent news I can find from Japan states that Orfevre is coming to Paris but that Japanese Horse Of The Year 2012, Gentildonna, is not travelling. We should know by the end of the month whether he is in transit.
The big races at York and in France have seen a few changes to the Arc betting, most of them fairly predictable. The defeat of Al Kazeem saw his odds lengthen whilst her impressive victory saw The Fugue’s odds contract, although it does not seem very probable that she will show up on the day. The bookies clipped Trading Leather down to 25/1, the odds on which Telescope remains as he is favourite for the St Leger. The Prix Jean Romanet winner Romantica has not been introduced to the market as the Prix De L’Opera has been declared as her target. The Grand Prix De Deauville result presented a question that was nothing to do with the Arc as ineligible gelding Cirrus Des Aigles failed again whilst the Arc entries in the race saw Tres Bleu beat Penglai Pavilion with Haya Landa, Now We Can and Very Nice Name unplaced. I cannot find any news about last year’s runner-up Orfevre, so whether he is heading for the Prix Foy in a couple of weeks is anybody’s guess. Although I have backed Flintshire ante post because of the record of French three year olds in the race, I still think that the Japanese ace will go one better this year unless the ground is heavy. The latest odds with the Irish Champion Stakes and ‘Les “Arc Trials”’ Day to come (src: Oddschecker): 5/1 Flintshire, Novellist 15/2 Orfevre 8/1 Treve* 10/1 Intello 11/1 Al Kazeem 16/1 Kizuna, Vancouverite* 20/1 Triple Threat, Magician, Remote*, Esoterique*, The Fugue 25/1 Telescope, Manndawi, Alive Alive Oh*, Trading Leather 33/1 Ruler Of The World, Morandi, Dunaden, Chicquita*, Ocovango, Silasol, Penglai Pavilion, Wild Coco, Sky Hunter, Lucky Speed, Shikarpour, Galileo Rock*, Toronado* 40/1 Pastorius, Masterstroke, Ridasiyna, Meandre (* = needs to be supplemented)
A report in the Racing Post states that Japanese ace Orfevre has arrived in Chantilly in preparation for a bid to win this year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Last year’s runner-up is being aimed at the Prix Foy (15 September) after a home campaign that was truncated when he missed his intended engagement in June due to bleeding. He has not run since March in the far east. Given that there is no horse in this year’s race that is rated any better than last year, this must be the best chance Japan has had of victory and they will hope that Longchamp is not a quagmire on 6 October as it was last year. As he cannot really do any worse with the draw than he did in 2012, it must be Orfevre versus the Paris weather.
Hi Ron. Arc time once again ! Like many on here last year, I backed Orfevre last year at 12/1 as my second string behind Camelot. However, I was stunned that he managed to throw away his chance after cruising into a clear lead (and trading at 1/100 on in running on Betfair). On the morning of the race (Just Before Midday) when the ground was clearly heavy, I, like yourself, knew Camelot had next to no chance and here lies my problem with siding with Orfevre at short prices once again. Despite his draw last year, (and soft ground conditions were always likely to help horses drawn wide as they would get outpaced more readily in faster conditions & find more trouble in running where more runners were being competetive) Orfevre was one of the few market leaders proven on Soft ground and managed to get to the lead without encountering interference. For Orfevre to then lose the race to such an average looking Arc winner, with another average looking horse back in third ( Fabre afterthought ?) was pretty woeful in my opinion. This year the Arc field looks considerably stronger, Orfevre has had setbacks and yet he trades at approx half the price at this stage last year. Good value? I might consider a saver on the day dependent on price, draw,going and competition. Todate, I have a spread of win bets on Flintshire (20/1 & 16/1), Intello ( Average 23/1), Treve (24/1), Novellist (65/1),Hot snap(300/1 but unlikely to run now) & Chicquita (150/1 Average with trading, & 12/1 place). Also had a few quid saver on the Fugue at 60/1 this morning. As hopeful as i can be at the moment prior to the trials, Ground conditions and draw. Certainly wouldn't risk anything at single figure prices before i at least knew the draw. Very surprised last year that the prices hardly changed at all after the draw was announced ! The market didn't seem to react too much to the heavy ground conditions either. Good Luck
Hi Campo. Would like to go to the Arc this year but I was hoping that Britain would have a live hope. Not sure that's the case this year. Off the air again tonight until the weekend.
Hi Ron. I'm probably only a 50/50 chance to go to the Arc this year. With good ground and a low draw, The Fugue might be our best chance. Backed her for today's Irish champion but glad I grabbed to 60/1 on Betfair for the Arc when I did although doesn't represent much more than a saver. Surprised Chiquita continues to trade at around the 100/1 mark. If Alain can teach her to race properly & respond properly for pressure, she could be a real contender.
Yes, Juddmonte Campo. But that's a bit like saying we couldn't cheer Mill Reef to victory as he was American bred. please log in to view this image
You mean we 'Can't have our cake & eat it' Surely something is better than nothing. Half Ours ? Only if he wins.
The various races and other goings-on over the weekend have seen a few movements in the betting for the big race. Amazingly odds are still available about Telescope despite the report in the Racing Post stating that his season is over due to injury. Also it is reported that Orfevre has worked well in advance of his run in the Prix Foy. The main change in the betting is for The Fugue although Irish Champion no-show Declaration Of War has also appeared in a couple of lists. Anybody’s guess what Ballydoyle actually intend to run. The market best odds now looks like this (src: Oddschecker): 5/1 Flintshire 11/2 Novellist 7/1 Orfevre 8/1 Treve* 10/1 Intello 12/1 The Fugue 14/1 Al Kazeem 16/1 Kizuna, Vancouverite*, Telescope 20/1 Triple Threat, Magician, Remote*, Esoterique* 25/1 Manndawi, Trading Leather, Declaration Of War*, Alive Alive Oh* 33/1 Ruler Of The World, Chicquita*, Dunaden, Ocovango, Morandi, Silasol, Penglai Pavilion, Shikarpour, Sky Hunter, Lucky Speed, Galileo Rock* 40/1 Masterstroke, Meandre, Pastorius, Ridasiyna (* = needs to be supplemented) Anyone interested in seeing the entries for all the Group 1 races on Arc Sunday can do so on the France Galop website. Follow this link: France Galop Calendar and enter “06/10/2013” as the Date and select “LONGCHAMP” in the Racecourse list and run the search. This will come up with the Arc day race meeting and clicking that link will show a list of the races.
Hi OddDog. I don't completely dismiss Orfevre's chances but I'm a little surprised that he is quite so highly rated by so many Keen minds. For me, he blew his best chance last year, with the winner & 3rd both letting the form down badly since. Corrida in 1936, remains the only Arc winner to have been previously beaten in it and, even if you consider Orfevre to be the moral winner last year, only 4 horses have ever gone on to win the race again. When I add in his bleeding/injury problems this year, including missing work due to being kicked after arriving in France recently, I just wonder if he is not fated to fail again. 7/1 before the draw, seems skinny enough to me.
Hi campo, I wasn't aware he'd had such problems since arriving in France, just read somewhere he's been working well. I think the ground was a great leveller last year and he looked all over the winner until the last 50 yards. The Arc is not a race I have ever bet on, probably never will do either. I did once do a nice 10 mile run through Paris though including around the outside of Longchamp racecourse - beautiful setting (even though it was pissing down).
Orfevre is an exceptional horse but has a mind of his own. He would probably give Frankel a race if allowed to track him but he just doesn't seem to like racing in front so would probably come second to a selling plater if he got a strop on. I think he could beat anything around provided he only got to the front on the line. On ability Oddy I would agree 3/1 could be generous but clearly a very difficult ride and for that alone 7/1 is a stingy price; no good for ew bet. Added to that the points you make Campo and I can't be having him at 7/1 either. I know, I've back tracked on my earlier view.
I suspect that Orfevre fans should be on at 7/1 before he runs in the Prix Foy. If he runs any sort of a race (not necessarily winning) he will be the favourite on the PMU on the day due to the volumes of Japanese money that will arrive. Okay, I accept that is just a betting opinion – take 7/1 he will be shorter. It is true that he has downed tools previously but I was at Longchamp last year when he won the Prix Foy by a street (never idled in front) and I think that he lost the Arc last year because he got stuck in the mud rather than idling in front. If you can arrange a match with a selling plater, I will take your bet – it will be taking candy from a baby.
Hi Quartermoon. Agree that he should win the Foy in the absence of Novellist & Al Kazeem & his price will contract as a result. Opinions make markets. Most believe he is a wonder horse & Heavy ground/ Mentality cost him a deserved victory last year. Perhaps others feel that by timing his sweeping run from the back too early and before others were giving their best, he was made to look more impressive than he truly is. Before last year's Arc, I expected the ground to inconvenience his main competition to a greater extent and I still believe that was the case. If we get good ground this year, it will be very interesting to see how he performs against top opposition.
please log in to view this image OK. As long as I can put a few mares and stallions on the other side of the racing rail and get them to run away from the winning post.
The third last year Masterstroke was a long way back and is a soft ground plodder that was trained by Andre Fabre for Godolphin France and they have once again made the mistake of transferring a horse to their British operation. There probably have not been a huge number of top horses that have run in the Arc after being beaten the previous year. Given the tremendous record of three year olds, which are often then retired to stud, the older horses are generally ones that have improved with age and did not take part as three year olds. The draw should be considered pretty academic for Orfevre as he had a dreadful draw last year and was just pipped at the post. This year the race looks no better on paper than last year but obviously the various setbacks that the horse has had are a concern; not an ideal preparation. I do not think he is a wonder horse but I do think that he was the best horse in the race last year and probably is this year as well.
