There are no great surprises in the entries for the three main Arc trials except for a few Ballydoyle possibles. Given how infrequently Aidan OâBrien actually runs anything in these races, there are some interesting names here. The Group 1 Prix Vermeille may attract the biggest turn out on the day whilst the Group 2 Prix Niel and Prix Foy are likely to only attract single figures. Prix Vermeille (2400m) â three year olds and older, 23 entries Romantica (A Fabre), Yellow And Green (N Clement), Galvaun (A Fabre), Grace Lady (Mlle T Puitg), Wild Coco (Lady Cecil), The Fugue (J Gosden), La Pomme DâAmour (A Fabre), Ambivalent (R Varian), Pirika (A Fabre), Hot Snap (Lady Cecil), Jathabah (C Brittain), Ferevia (C Laffon-Parias), Treve (Mme C Head-Maarek), The Lark (M Bell), Tasaday (A Fabre), Talent (R Beckett), Penelopa (M Mintchev), Chicquita (A de Royer Dupré), Venus De Milo (A OâBrien), Our Obsession (W Haggas), Orion Love (H Pantall), Silasol (C Laffon-Parias), Eleuthera (P Demercastel). Prix Niel (2400m) â three year olds, 25 entries Flintshire (A Fabre), Hachita Valley (A Fabre), Preempt (P Bary), Manndawi (A de Royer Dupré), Shikarpour (A de Royer Dupré), Contributer (E Dunlop), Leading Light (A OâBrien), Max Dynamite (J Van Handenhove), Vanishing Cupid (H Pantall), Ocovango (A Fabre), Cap OâRushes (C Appleby), Libertarian (C Appleby), Secret Number (S bin Suroor), Penglai Pavilion (A Fabre), Vancouverite (A Fabre), Spiritjim (P Bary), Eye Of The Storm (A OâBrien), Kizuna (S Sasaki), Kingsbarns (A OâBrien), Foundry (A OâBrien), Ruler Of The World (A OâBrien), Bravodino (J Pease), Tres Bleu (H Pantall), Triple Threat (A Fabre), Morandi (J-C Rouget). Prix Foy (2400m) â four year olds and older, 22 entries Last Train (A Fabre), Mandour (A de Royer Dupré), Very Nice Name (A De Mieulle), Novellist (A Wohler), Camelot (A OâBrien), Al Kazeem (R Charlton), Now We Can (N Clement), Masterstroke (C Appleby), Royal Empire (S bin Suroor), Joshua Tree (E Dunlop), Stellar Wind (T Ozeki), Chamonix (A OâBrien), Ernest Hemingway (A OâBrien), Dunaden (M Delzangles), Aiken (J Gosden), Orfevre (Y Ikee), Going Somewhere (D Smaga), Linda Radlett (A Fabre), Haya Landa (Mme L Audon), Pagera (H Pantall), La Pomme DâAmour (A Fabre), Pirika (A Fabre). Prix Du Moulin De Longchamp (1600m) â three year olds and older, 32 entries Most Improved (A OâBrien), Don Bosco (D Smaga), Gregorian (J Gosden), Stellar Wind (T Ozeki), Declaration Of War (A OâBrien), Maxios (J Pease), Trade Storm (D Simcock), Caspar Netscher (D Simcock), Duntle (D Wachman), Glory Awaits (K Ryan), Mshawish (M Delzangles), Olympic Glory (R Hannon), Style Vendome (N Clement), Top Chill (N Clement), Afonso De Sousa (A OâBrien), Darwin (A OâBrien), Garswood (R Fahey), Tawhid (S bin Suroor), Montiridge (R Hannon), Peace At Last (H Pantall), Dastarhon (Mme P Brandt), Gale Force Ten (A OâBrien), Magician (A OâBrien), Kingsbarns (A OâBrien), Cristoforo Colombo (A OâBrien), Ruler Of The World (A OâBrien), Havana Gold (R Hannon), Anodin (F Head), Shenliyka (A de Royer Dupré), Siyenica (A de Royer Dupré), Flotilla (M Delzangles), Sage Melody (M Delzangles). The Group 3 Prix Gladiateur on the same card includes the Francois Doumen trained Kasbah Bliss, now aged eleven; and the Group 3 Prix Du Petit Couvert features a host of British sprinters including Lady Cecilâs Tickled Pink.
Any views on the 'Arc' chances of Kizuna, the Japanese three year old. Would seem to be the only 'unknown' quantity heading for this year's race. Form figures are impressive and is by Deep Impact. Good run in the Prix Niel would see price collapse from 16/1.
Kizuna has only just arrived in Chantilly from Japan so not exactly long to acclimatise before the Prix Niel. Normally the Japanese send their older horses over to Europe as their three year olds have not tended to do any good; however, the owner has been tempted by the weight for age allowance that his horse will receive in the Arc. When the Prix Niel is run we should get a fair idea of how good Kizuna might be but with the caveat that he has just got off the plane whilst the home team are not disadvantaged by travelling quite so far. Obviously if he gets beaten out of sight the bookmakers are not going to be running for cover. I still prefer Orfevre out of the Japanese raiders as he has been over before and will hopefully advertise his well-being in the Prix Foy; and could still end up as favourite on the day as the Japanese pile on with the PMU.
For anti-post Arc purposes, it could be interesting to consider what effect soft/heavy ground for the trials might have. E.g. Flintshire should probably be trading nearer 500/1 if we were only considering his sole soft ground performance. If he were to be trounced in those conditions in the Prix Niel, what price then for the Arc ? If it were to happen (Given their watering policy its possible) it could really shake things up & create some needed value at the top of the market. Currently and with good ground & a single figure draw, I would tip Flintshire as the most likely Arc winner. However, if Good ground & a good draw are both 50/50 chances, then the true price being offered with both these conditions satisfied, equates to a very skinny offer of approx 5/4 ! Thoughts ?
I have learned over the years that the << Arc Trials >> results should be taken with a pinch of salt. Often the top French trainers give their charges a mid-season break and then come back in September a little ring-rusty. It would not surprise me if Andre Fabre ran three (at least) in the Prix Niel and if one beat the others that does not necessarily guarantee that same finishing order on 6th October. Obviously the trials races will not attract the large field of the main event, so a good draw is largely academic on 15th September. Also, the going could be considerably different by 6th October. Last year, Orfevre won the Prix Foy in a common canter on good ground but then got stuck in the mud and beaten by a far inferior filly in the Arc on heavy ground. That filly had previously not troubled the judge in the Prix Vermeille, illustrating the lack of credibility of the << Arc Trials >> form. Having backed Flintshire ante post because of the excellent record of French-trained three year olds in the race, I am hoping that all comes right for him; however, I would not be too disappointed if the ground was good and the Japanese horse collected. As I will be at Longchamp on 15th September, I would like decent ground and decent weather on the day.
I've never liked the Prix Niel since Nashwan was beaten in the race. As I got into racing in the late 1980s he was the first real "superstar" I'd seen live and his victories in the 2000GNS, Derby, Eclipse and King George were really thrilling to a young and avid race fan. Nashwan ran no sort of race in the Niel and was retired shortly afterwards, after which I always had an illogical disliking of the race. I guess it's worth noting that the winner of the Niel that year, Golden Pheasant, went on to finish 14th of 19 behind Carroll House in the Arc but then went on to take the Arlington Million and Japan Cup the following year. Second in the Niel was Andre Fabre's French Glory, ridden by Pat Eddery, who went on to take a G3 and G2 the year later and then also got an elusive G1 when taking the Woodbine International.
Hi Quartermoon. Will you travel to longchamp the day before the racing (ie 14th) and if so, would you be in a position to give us a 'Heads up' re the ground ahead of proceedings ?
Unfortunately not. I am on the first Eurostar on the Sunday morning (arrives 11:47 local time), practising getting to the track as quickly as possible so that I can do the same on 6th October when racing starts earlier.
Thanks Quartermoon. Hope you get good weather on the day & have a great time. I was so surprised by the ground for the Arc last year after listening to O'brien say that he thought the ground would ride on the Good side in an ATR interview the day before. I just assumed that a multi million pound professional operation would have paid for a member of their staff to visit Longchamp in the days prior to such an important meeting to check on ground conditions when it has such a huge impact on their chances of success.
P.S. When O'Brien gave his opinion on the Going for the Arc, I assumed that it was an informed opinion & not blind Guesswork. So who do we think was advising him; Mystic Meg ?
I think that what did O’Brien and various others in last year was the weather on Arc weekend. If they had looked at the weather forecast even the BBC website had overnight rain predicted on the eve of the big race. I was at Longchamp for the whole weekend and (fortunately) I had to fly Easy Jet because there were no Eurostars early enough due to engineering work. I got to Longchamp just after 11:00 expecting a 13:30 start. They had moved the Saturday card forward to accommodate a polo match that the sponsors had arranged just down the road. The first race was at something like 12:15 local time and the last race was at about 4:00. Just after the last race it started bucketing down with rain (so I expect the polo got cancelled), so the ground had changed markedly by Sunday. Anybody asking the jockeys for an opinion based on Saturday’s racing will have been stitched up. This year I am only going for the Sunday because there is no way of telling in advance what the race times are going to be and France Galop do not publish them until a few days before on their website.
Thanks Quartermoon. From your account, it sounds like I'm being unfair & that the heavy ground couldn't have been predicted the day before. Was it Good ground on the Saturday ? When I was there for Hurricane run's victory in 2005, it also bucketed it down the night before, could have been at least 2 - 3 hours on and off, but it was still deemed to be Good ground by racetime on the Sunday. I was surprised & put that down to good drainage. That is why I was so surprised that the ground could change so dramatically over night.
When you see a going report for any of the big French tracks, you need to factor in their consistent understatement. All of the major tracks are watered so they never get firm ground as we would know it; that is why nobody should ever back horses ante post for the Arc that want fast ground. When it says “Bon” that could frequently translate to “Good To Soft” over here. On the Saturday they were definitely kicking it up (I would describe it as “Soft” and Cirrus Des Aigles won the Prix Dollar by a street – it looked more like Cheltenham in December. I remember Hurricane Run winning the 2005 Arc – it poured with rain just before and during the race and I got soaked but that hardly contributed to the going – and I am sure Kieren Fallon did not mind getting wet! The overnight rain had turned the ground at least “Good To Soft” as I would describe it. I have photographs of Reefscape winning the Prix Du Cadran in splendid isolation and he is kicking up loads of turf. My photographs of Hurricane Run winning are all blurred because of a combination of falling rain and bad light (shutter speed too slow).
Thanks again Quartermoon. Very interesting and informative. I stayed under cover with a beer in hand during the race that day, but still have the picture of Hurricane Run making his winning move in my head. All in the garden was rosy !
According to RP results from Longchamp yesterday (Wedns) the ground was officially Soft. With unsettled weather forecast, Soft ground must be a possibility for the trials on Sunday. If so, Paddy Power's 5/4 on Flintshire for the Neil looks skinny.
Watching the coverage of Longchamp’s card on Wednesday, the going was reported as “Soft” and they were certainly kicking up plenty of turf. It was noticeable that they were racing on a strip of ground that had been doled out from the normal running rail, presumably to preserve new ground for the weekend – which they have done previously on Arc Saturday,; however, it is hard to envisage a scenario where the ground on Sunday will not be on the yielding side. The Paris weather forecast for Saturday is not good so conditions will be testing, which will not favour the likes of Orfevre but will not inconvenience Olympic Glory in the Moulin. The declarations for Les << Arc Trials >> and the Prix Du Moulin on Sunday are as follows (times are local): 14:30 Prix Niel (2400m) – three year olds 01 Flintshire – A Fabre, Maxime Guyon 02 Preempt – P Bary, Thierry Thulliez 03 Shikarpour – A de Royer Dupré, Christophe Lemaire 04 Max Dynamite – J Van Handenhove, 05 Ocovango – A Fabre, Olivier Peslier 06 Vancouverite – A Fabre, Mikael Barzalona 07 Spiritjim – P Bary, Christophe Soumillon 08 Kizuna – S Sasaki, Yutaka Take 09 Ruler Of The World – A O’Brien, Ryan Moore 10 Triple Threat – A Fabre, Pierre Boudot 15:40 Prix Vermeille (2400m) – three year olds and older 01 Romantica – A Fabre, Maxime Guyon 02 Galvaun – A Fabre, Pierre Boudot 03 La Pomme D’Amour – A Fabre, Flavien Prat 04 Wild Coco – Lady Cecil, Tom Queally 05 Treve – Mme C Head-Maarek, Frankie Dettori 06 Tasaday – A Fabre, Mikael Barzalona 07 Penelopa – M Mintchev, William Buick 08 Venus De Milo – A O’Brien, Ryan Moore 09 Orion Love – H Pantall, Fabrice Veron 10 Silasol – C Laffon-Parias, Olivier Peslier 11 Eleuthera – P Demercastel, 16:10 Prix Foy (2400m) – four year olds and older 01 Mandour – A de Royer Dupré, Christophe Lemaire 02 Very Nice Name – A De Mieulle, Olivier Peslier 03 Camelot – A O’Brien, Ryan Moore 04 Now We Can – N Clement, Thierry Thulliez 05 Stellar Wind – T Ozeki, Yutaka Take 06 Dunaden – M Delzangles, Jamie Spencer 07 Orfevre – Y Ikee, Christophe Soumillon 08 Going Somewhere – D Smaga, Gregory Benoist 09 Haya Landa – Mme L Audon, 10 Pirika – A Fabre, Pierre Boudot 16:45 Prix Du Moulin De Longchamp (1600m) – three year olds and older 01 Maxios – J Pease, Stephane Pasquier 02 Olympic Glory – R Hannon, Frankie Dettori 03 Style Vendome – N Clement, Thierry Thulliez 04 Gale Force Ten – A O’Brien, Ryan Moore 05 Havana Gold – R Hannon, Jamie Spencer 06 Anodin – F Head, Olivier Peslier 07 Flotilla – M Delzangles, Christophe Lemaire 08 Sage Melody – M Delzangles, Umberto Rispoli
Interesting that Ryan Moore is riding all of the Ballydoyle contingent at Longchamp. Is there a big race ride that is keeping Joseph O’Brien in Ireland on Sunday or is it just that he cannot do the weights on some of these? I see that Mikael Barzalona is over to ride the Godolphin France runners, presumably in the hope that he might find an Arc ride.
He is riding a beautifully bred 2yo filly Dazzling plus Ernest Hemingway in the Irish St leger plus Giovanni Boldini, a one raced 2yo winner. Maybe he fancies the 2yos for next years' classics.
