When is the best time to put the bets on ??

Just been mulling over when to put a bet on our relagation this season, I am not a gambler just some times like the national etc.

I have never thought about putting money on against my beloved team, but last season towards the end loads of people were putting on betts on us going down.

I have gave up on the joke that is the management of us and have already got use to the thoughts of relagation so I might as well make some money out of it.

But when would be the best time ???

Now, before we confirm we have failed to do f all all summer and failed to replace a striker 8 months ago and sold cayabe with hrs left to replace him?

Or when pardew walks will that lower the odds ??

I might even put a bet on us beating the lowest points in the league too that might bring me some etc readies.

Let's hope I am wrong as I would rather lose money then is go down but with Ashley,kinnear,pardew at the helm its like waiting to watch a car crash to happen

 

I'd get on it now.
You can get 4/1 or 5/1 and IMHO we should be 15/8 ish.

 

We've only played two games, give them a chance. Backing your team to go down is ****ing disgusting.

 

A bit of advice - Live bet!

I've won over 200 quid live betting

Betting on who's going to score next in a game is where the money is at.

Betting on a result before the match is gonna end in failure bro.

 

My best advice mate, if you're not a gambler don't gamble.

The best odds you'll get just now are 5/1 or 11/2 with Ladbrokes. Others are worse than that.
Depends on how much you're looking to put on.

All those who put something on us towards the end of last season lost their money.
People were getting decent odds which made the gamble worthwhile.

IMHO - Too early to place the bet now unless you're laying a bundle and ultra confident that we're going down.

 

Nothing to do with the thread title but i thinkk Ashley Joke and whoever else is involved with transfers are just a bunch of cowards. Why not say we are not signing anyone and that would stop all this will we wont we rubbish. Prefer to know where we stand and move on to support what we have.

 

We'd all like to know where we stand, but if they told us they weren't buying anybody it would mean less ST's sold and a big drop in revenue.

 

[its not about two games its about all of last season and how we have gone backwards, we all gave them a chance last year


QUOTE=Turkish;5277952]We've only played two games, give them a chance. Backing your team to go down is ****ing disgusting.[/QUOTE]

 

[have points with newcastle never say never but i have a gut feeling and looking at ways to soften the blow


QUOTE=ReedioHeed;5278130]

My best advice mate, if you're not a gambler don't gamble.

The best odds you'll get just now are 5/1 or 11/2 with Ladbrokes. Others are worse than that.
Depends on how much you're looking to put on.

All those who put something on us towards the end of last season lost their money.
People were getting decent odds which made the gamble worthwhile.

IMHO - Too early to place the bet now unless you're laying a bundle and ultra confident that we're going down.[/QUOTE]

 

It's called insurance betting.
Tash whacked a big chunk on near the end of last season and was glad to lose in the end.

 

I know where you're coming from.
I took 16's last season and was looking at a decent amount.
The odds at the time were too big to ignore.

I rarely back against us, but when I have and been on a winner, it doesn't really soften the blow, but, that may be because I look at it as just another bet.
You collect the winnings, but there's no satisfaction in it.

I just think the odds are crap in the whole relegation market now - I mean the best odds you can get for Swansea are 10's which is a joke.

 

Can anyone really see 17 worse teams than us in the PL? I'm not a betting man; if I were I'd put everything I could on 5-1,

 

We won't get relegated. Don't waste your money.

 

its only after 11 and you must have had a skim full tonight lol
QUOTE=Geordieginola;5278999]We won't get relegated. Don't waste your money.[/QUOTE]

 

I think the best idea is to go and see a back street bookie. Put all your money, your car, house, missus, the lot on us going down ASAP

 

Not at all. There's a difference betwen betting with your head and betting with your heart.

Betting to back one's team to go down because you feel that your team, the one you support, are likely to go down is a good financial move. Hell's teeth I made a mint last season, as I have posted here, by laying Newcastle in all of the away league games. Towards the end of the season when it became clear that the prices were going to be bad it was hard to get a decent price but I did it nonetheless and I was pleased when they avoided relegation.

This season I made a bad mistake of laying the relegation and after the Manchester City game, the price plummeted from about 10/1 down to around 5s and it looks like it's going to be an expensive season or I may have a long wait to get my money back unless I trade out at a loss.

As it happens I have already made a profit on West Ham this season (I laid them to go down before the first match and then when the price rose after their first game I backed them again to guarantee a profit no matter if they go up or down at the end of the season).

I was planning on doing the same with Newcastle this season and it looks as if this trade could bite me on the arse unless it's clear that there's three other teams which are worse. If they go down then I am also down to the tune of about three grand. But I may get some of that back by laying them again in the away games and maybe some home games too.

But back to my point; speaking as someone who makes a living fom punting and trading the markets (horses, football and the stock market) I can tell you that laying your own team is not disgraceful at all. If it gets to the stage where laying your own team then, quite simply, the source of the disgrace is elsewhere. For that, see a load of other threads elsewhere.

As to the OP's original question. The best time was before the start of the season at about 11/1. Now one may think that it could be a better bet to lay the relegation (i.e. believe that they won't be relegated) on Betfair and if the bet looks likely, i.e. Newcastle look to be the fourth worst team in the division, then going back into the market to back the relegation may be a wise move.

For example if one could lay Newcastle's relegation at 5/1 for £100 (you are saying that you don't think that they will go down) now and then they get a few wins and the price goes up to 8/1 then you go back in with a bet of £66.67 and then, no matter what happens at the end of the season then you make £33.33. But this assumes that sometime between now and then the price goes up.

Or if you feel that the club will do down then back the relegation at 5/1 for £100 and then when things get worse and the price drops to 2/1 then you lay at that price for £200 and make £100 no matter what happens to the club. But this will work only if you think that the price will drop further.

This is punting, or trading with your head, and it's often best to work on your own team as you will have a better feel for what's going on which makes it another reason why laying your own team isn't a disgraceful act.

I only did the trade on West Ham becuase I was watching the price movements and after their second game their price on relegation went to about 20/1 from 10/1 at the start of the season. That was a nice little trading movement which I caught and since that most people here isn't expect a victory at home against West Ham that was a very strong trade.

The bottom line is that any punting must be done without emotion. The fact that it's your club has nothing to do with it. If it's a good bet then go in, if it isn't a good bet then leave well alone. Saying that one shouldn't bet against something you like is like saying "I have a 1960s pre-CBS Fender Stratocaster which I love dearly and since I love it so much I won't insure it" as insurance is you making a bet that the item will be damaged, lost or stolen.