Hanovarian Baron, in the Ebor at 33/1 The old boy is lurking at the bottom of the weights and with Mike Murphy taking off 5lbs, he is running much lighter than most of the field. Weight stops trains and all that. HB is a relatively lightly raced 8 year old, and whilst this is a high mark for him, he does have form over this course and he has good form on ground with cut, including when running Sir John Hawkwood close in the 1 1/2 mile course handicap in May. He also ran better than the bare form last time out, when he travelled well on the rail, before being hampered as the race started in earnest, he then finished off very well on ground that I thought was too fast for him. Now he returns to York, runs on suitable ground and carries a feather weight. My other two are Cable Bay and Mister Impatience. Cable Bay was a shade unlucky to be beaten by the Haggis horse last time, and I think he will relish the softer ground, whilst Mister Impatience has everything right for him today and is my best bet of the day now returning to a handicap. He sluiced up on this sort of ground earlier in the season, and I think he will be better than recent form again today.
Early in his career Ivory said Sirius Prospect didnt like soft ground, he won that day at Doncaster despite it when he was in the form of his life. Since then he was run some very good races on it tho so who knows, maybe the trainer was wrong. Cristoforo Columbo surely cant win on the ground, hes a typical Henrythenavigator and hasnt been seen since the Guineas, he gets the dreaded Boris Fenster lay of the day tag. If your backing him at 9/4 5/2 today your in the wrong game. I also find myself firmly against Tom Queally, Hugh Taylor and the vast general consensus on Tiger Cliff in the Ebor, I cant have him on the ground.... I cant have Ted Veale either on account of him being a bridle horse, I dont think the ground is ideal for him but he will handle it, just cant imagine him winning an Ebor on soft ground, he will come there on the snaff as always but if he doesnt kick 3 clear and its any sort of a battle you can forget him, could be a good in running lay. I liked Caravan Rolls On but the ground looks to have gone against him. Opinion looks solid enough to run a race but ive went for Bishop Roko, even though Doyle deserts him for a better book of rides.
Highest weight carried to victory in the Ebor since the great Sea Pigeon lumped 10 stone round in 1979? 9 stone 4 lbs by Purple Moon (2007) and Mephisto (2004) Tempers my enthusiasm for Opinion today although I think he'll relish conditions.
After the expected deluge at York and with the going now Soft, the card is a complete no bet. If you want to find the winner of the Melrose or the Ebor, it needs feet like dinner plates and has to be up with the pace. Over at The Curragh, Dutch Masterpiece steps up to the top table and looks to have an excellent chance of completing the hat-trick given the improvement so far this season. Will War Command show that his Phoenix Stakes flop was a one-off rather than his Royal Ascot win? At short odds that is just a watching brief. At Newmarket there is something of a quandary in the 3:55. Can Mince bounce back to last season’s best form after a break or is John Gosden’s lightly-raced three year old Taayel the fly in the ointment? At Goodwood, plenty will be prepared to risk Afsare in the Celebration Mile after his easy win at Salisbury last time but there has to be a question mark about the ground and I do not think that the form of the race in Wiltshire stacks up to much. The 2:55 looks like a very hot heat, with Glen Moss appearing to be a handicap good thing (easy three-length win latest but just a six pound penalty), Mark Johnston’s Shebebi not unduly punished for an easy win; and Arnold Lane trying to give weight all round after a Group 3 win in Germany. Given the confidence that Richard Hughes exudes in his Racing Post column, Magic City has to be the one for the hat-trick.
I too was/am keen on Caravan Rolls On MOG. I am keeping the faith however, he hasn't actually raced on soft, so it's not fair to say he will be hampered by it. He has won on good, and I'm hopeful of a good ew run at 11-1. I have also had a little ew on Tropical Beat. Ruscello is my big hope of the day - unlucky LTO, I see a good run at nice odds I won't be on here once the Bolton v. QPR match kicks off but I will record the racing and watch after. Any adjustments to the competition will be done on my return. Assuming no one tries aftertiming - an Al Zaroomi type ban if you do
With all the rain and the going in the Ebor it looks like the only winner is Opinion who will relish and love it, won on it 2/2 and by big distances both times. Number Theory and Sheikayedroad will love it as well. Small tri-cast and big bet on opinion for me
A few for me today 4.20 Curragh Mustajeeb 5.25 Curragh Ernest Hemingway 7.15 Windsor Cameron Highland 4.30 Newmarket Lancelot Du Lac NAP 2.55 Goodwood Monsieur Chevalier e/w
It's worth having a saver on Opinion, you wouldn't think he'd relish soft going with Oasis Dream as his sire, but he's 2 from 2 on soft and won by two lengths or less both times.
15:50 York - Oriental Fox (e/w @ 16/1 BOG). (A funny old Ebor this year. So many of the runners on breeding, that is, (apart from being unsuited to the going), will surely have cried enough shortly after entering the home straight? So I'll take a chance e/w with selection who is reasonably stoutly-bred. Sire Lomitas represents a pretty tough German breeding line, and Oriental Fox may well appreciate the hustle and bustle of this big handicap? Ted Veale is unexposed, of course, and could be anything, but just 3-days from his last run? Australian style that, but he is in with a real chance for sure). GL all today!
Really fancy Dark Crusader in the 2.40. Suits all ground conditions and was impressive last time out. Could take this in his stride and worth a bet at 9/1.
Small stakes e/w Lucky 31 today: 2.55 Goodwood Magic City 3.05 Cartmel Flying Doctor 3.50 York Opinion 4.30 Newmarket Nenge Mboko (ROTO) 5.20 Cartmel Dumbarton (Danbo) Best of luck to everyone
Tominator beat him by a short head in the Northumberland Plate on good to soft, so can't be discounted if coping with softer conditions. As for Ted Veale, it doesn't bother me at all he last ran 3 days ago as he won comfortably at Bellewstown. But this is the most competitive flat race he's run in by a long way.
Redcar gone, its not raining here at mo but it pissed down last night and this morning and is still misty bet York is awash
Lots of money around for one of my picks today, Flying Doctor in the 3.05 at Cartmel. I backed him a week ago at Market Rasen (mark 93) over 3 miles and he travelled kindly before getting left badly behind when the pace quickened. He's dropped 3lbs to 90 today and is back in trip to 2m6f and the money has been pouring on him all morning - 8/1 this morning but into 3/1 now.
5.20 Cartmel Tinseltown 4/1 AP McCoy going to Cartmel today for one ride. He has a 35% strike rate there over the past 5 years. Has ridden Tinseltown twice before and finished first and second. Take the hint.
Based on previous form with cut in the ground, I can only see one winner in the opener at York - Fort Bastion. Backed him at 13/2
Right let the games begin ive taken QPR to win got 2s so come on you hoops (sorry reeeebs) York 1st for me hope Sirius Prospect can get me of to a flyer, I like the horse but its also one of my old Ships way back in the day
