Goodwood 5.15 Heddwyn 14-1 EW This horse has been plagued with problems in the last two years but the connections have persevered rather than retire the horse, I feel they may get some reward for their patience today as this horse drops down a grade. The horse ran in some very good handicaps before injury and was given a very tender pipe opener over this course last time out. You have to believe that the trainer had a big say in recommending the horse as one worth sticking with and I feel he will want to be proved right. It is a little speculative for a horse who has been injured but if he has retained what was there before he must have a good chance of off of this mark, at 14-1 it may be worth a shot. Good luck all.
5.55 Cartmel. GLACED OVER 9-2. Bought by Donald McCain Jr last month and having its first run for him tomorrow. Whats caught my eye to this is the fact the forecast starting price is 25-1 yet it is already showing 9-2 favourite on all those sites with current odds for tomorrow. Also it has THREE race entries after tomorrow up until the 29th August suggesting a quick winning streak may be planned. Definitely worth a small win bet and i will be watching the odds closely before the race.
York 2.05 Glory Awaits 7/1 3.15 Wilshire Boulevard 9/2 3.50 Bishop Roko 12/1 4.25 Hot Streak 9/2 Newm 3.20 Fledged 7/2 3.55 Tropics 5/1 5.05 Willow Beck 2/1 Curragh 2.35 Hurryupharriet 8/1 3.10 Abstraction 12/1 Good 2.55 Pythagorean 9/1 NAP 3.30 Thistle Bird 4/1 5.15 Trader Jack 5/1
No surprise to see him halved in price as 20s was ridiculous. No need to say much more other than hopefully the race isn't run at a crawl and if rain falls it doesn't bother me and may help him as I think it may suit over 1m as I think he's better over 10f
4.30 Newmarket Nenge Mboko 10/1 I think the market has gotten Nenge Mboko's price very wrong and I honestly can't see him out of the places - and I strongly fancy him to land this. George Baker's 3 year old has been transformed with the application of a visor and I think there is still a lot more to come. Looking a frustrating horse at times, Nenge Mboko barely scrambled home over 6f in a seller by a short head at Windsor last month but that confidence has clearly done him the world of good. Having easily dispatched of another seller 3 starts ago at Nottingham, Nenge Mboko returned to handicap company off a mark of 80 at Windsor over 6f when winning very cheekily by a neck when justifying his late market support. In a 3 year old handicap under Pat Cosgrave, Nenge Mboko travelled well throughout the race and Cosgrave was a cool customer as he never resorted to using the whip (shook him along vigorously at times) as he was well in control at the finish to land the hat trick in fine style. The runner up Jontleman (who reopposses tomorrow off 5lb worse terms and is shorter in the market) has ran very well on his 3 subsequent starts since including when winning well LTO off a 3lb higher mark and that performance clearly showed Nenge Mboko was very much a horse on the way up. 9 days later Nenge Mboko turned out under a 6lb penalty at Glorious Goodwood over 7f and although he ended up a just over 3L beaten 5th I think he would have won had the race been over 6f and that the trip just stretched him. Having travelled well throughout the contest, Nenge Mboko hit the front just outside the final furlong and stayed there until about the final 100 or so yards as he could find no more at the finish as he hung right late on. Trainer George Baker posted on his site that jockey Pat Cosgrave told him he would have won if it was a 6f contest and the drop back to that trip today is a massive positive. Furthermore, the front 4 that swamped him late on all came near side whereas Nenge Mboko finished on the far side of the track and its definitely plausible that he ended up on the slower part of the track. That race against elders when only one of two 3 year olds (other tailed off) has worked out really well from the small sample of horses to run since. The 2nd and 6th home have both won well since off the same mark and thats not at all surprising given how competitive handicaps at Glorious Goodwood are. He's been freshened up with 24 days off the track (previous 4 runs in the space of 30 days) and is now 1lb lower off a mark of 85 as the handicapper has reassessed. Now back against his own age group, I think the drop back to 6f is key for Nenge Mboko and although this is the same grade as he faced LTO I think it looks a much easier contest. A horse who seems to act on any surface, Nenge Mboko has bagged a great draw in stall 1 if they decided to stick to the rail and he certainly won't be inconvenienced either if the race is run more towards the middle. Pat Cosgrave is again on board and seems to get on really well with this gelding and trainer George Baker is in good form at present as well. I'm slightly concerned that there doesn't look a natural front runner in this contest as it would be a shame if this race was a crawl with a sprint finish and given that he is a smooth traveller the faster they go the better. The favourite and handicap debutant Muthmir could obviously be a fly in the ointment with only 3 career starts to date but although a mark of 87 looks feasible I don't necessarily think he's thrown in off his opening mark and I really think its going to take a well handicapped animal to defy Nenge Mboko today. If the race is run at a good clip and Nenge Mboko gets an uninterrupted passage, I would be absolutely shocked if he isn't in the first 3 home but I strongly fancy him to land this contest and I've had a good sized wager on him to do just that as he is unquestionably my best bet of the day.
I do think Bomber Thorn is very interesting as well Boris but I've heard there has been torrential rain at York and it could be a bit of a bog today. Will wait for an official going report before making my decision but unsure if he'll like the ground soft. If he's fine on it then 16s is a big, big price if the visor helps him
3.50 York Saptapadi 33/1 I can't leave Saptapadi unbacked at 33/1 off a mark of 94 in the Ebor despite the likely soft ground being a bit of an unknown. Well handicapped on his 2011 form that saw him 5th in this event off a mark of 105, he also showed strong form in a Group 2 at the track over a trip to short immediately prior to that before embarking on an unsuccessful attempt to win the Melbourne Cup. Saptapadi had a very unsuccesful time when left in Australia with Jim Conlan but has shaped on a few occasions that he still holds his old sparkle since returning to former trainer Brian Ellison. At undoubtedly his favourite track, he has a lovely low weight of 8-10 and a good draw in stall 9 and despite the soft ground being an unknown he seemed to travel through it fine when making his first start since rejoining Ellison when not knocked about back in May. North Yorkshire based Ellison won this in 2011 with Moyenne Corniche and given that this is his only entry since I am sure this has been the long term goal for his now 7 year old gelding and there is not very many trainers who can get a horse to peak like Ellison can and he would undoubtedly love to win Europe's richest handicap once again.
Goodwood 4.05 VEILED INTRIGUE was a massive eyecatcher on her debut in what looked a decent Windsor maiden. The winner, Hoku, was home and hosed some way out and Veiled Intrigue was not unduly knocked about to chase in vain. Sweeney takes over from Amy Scott today and I expect to see a much stronger ride and bolder showing.
I'm so happy you've put this one up Roto was looking at it last night and decided I was backing it along with Bishop Roko, much more confident after reading your write up
Officially soft now so thats the big question mark. I'd be surprised to see Ted Veale running now as he'd prefer a sounder surface and would be a little surprised if Tony Martin risked him only 3 days after his last run with a lot of other opportunities in both codes to look forward to.
BPG out at Redcar today, would have been nailed on buT its pissed down over night so the ground will have gone, so try Rasalass in the same race stay frost
Very strongly fancied him myself until I heard the rain was coming. Think it will be proper soft tonight so will refrain from backing him. If conditions remained quick I think all the pace in the race would have seen him have the race run perfectly to suit and I saw him winning. Not to worry, he's more wins left in him.
Popped my thoughts in the quote earlier in the thread. Hopeful but realistic - needs a very big step up and I couldn't be confident he will over 1m. If it was over 10f I'd certainly be more confident.
surely if Educate runs well again his handicap mark will rise ? he would/should have won LTo but for bad luck-- are they going for some place money, or is the horse 'telling' them something else ?---stable have been in very good form recently--three wins from last three runners....
Mudlarks will relish the soft going at York, I wonder how much it'll suit Ted Veale in the Ebor. But he's won three times on heavy going so shouldn't have any problem with it. As it's trained by Tony Martin, I've got to have a small bet on him (he might end up being favourite!). He won at the Cheltenham Festival so could turn out to be a top class dual purpose horse. Genzy also has a good chance of winning, ran in a few listed races this season.
right again young man,,, wait till he gets back over them fences, james loves him but its all about the ground for him im afraid stay frosty
Dumbarton @ 15/2 (GP) hUGHSEY TELLS ME WILL PLACE 17:20 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 1f 110y Ted Veale @ 13/2 (GP) I THINK GROUND WONT BE A PROBLEM 15:50 EBOR HANDICAP 1m 6f Havana Cooler @ 3/1 (GP) WILL GO ON THE GROUND 14:40 MELROSE STAKES Sirius Prospect @ 5/1 (GP) LOVES YORK AND AGAIN SHOULD SUIT THE GOING 14:05 CITY OF YORK STAKES 7f SMALL EACH WAY LUCKY AND ACCA STAY FROSTY
