Reading Stroller's thread got me to thinking. It seems to me that a lot of people are dangerously over confident of our promotion chances this season. I've made a point about 15 times since relegation but not once has it been replied to by anyone on here. The Statistics of teams bouncing right back to the PL after relegation are pretty low. I can't actually get my finger on the precise number (maybe someone else can?) but thinking back over the 20-odd year existence of the Premiership, I'd say the 1st Season return rate is no higher than a quarter. Twenty five percent. One in Four. Sweet FA. So, with that in mind, how many people actually think we will win promotion this season? As a fairly rationally minded man, I'll go with the numbers and say we won't. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if we struggled. I remember the last time we went down to the Ch'ship, people were talking the way they are now. Very bullish and presumptuous. Yet it took us 15 long years to regain our top flight status. If Harry Redknapp manages to get us back up at the first time of asking then it would be an extraordinary achievement.
With a couple of additions, I think this squad (as it stands now) could push for the playoff spots. Automatic promotion is probably out of reach but a place in the top 6 is achievable, imo.
I'd be looking at playoff spot & think that's definitely achieveable & with a little more strenthening could with a little luck push for one of the automatic places.
The current squad isnt good enough for top 2 imo. We lack in depth badly, and a full season in the championship will show this. So it is crucial that we get a few more players in. In positions that we all know need strengthening. One week to go - im not too confident that they will. Barely any rumours at the moment. That stat is also a pretty worrying stat - not many teams do manage it. The championship is a tough and close league, so many teams can go on a good run and end up going up - like Hull last season.
Fair question Swords. I'm cautiously optimistic. For a team to get automatic promotion a lot of stars have to align. Lady Luck is always an important factor and lets be honest, she's pissed all over us over the last few years. I genuinely think that we are finally building properly with a nice blend of youth and experience. I think that Dunne will be vital for us and he MUST stay fit. We really lacked genuine leadership last year and he will bring that in abundance. I'm just afraid that we could end up loosing Cesar, Barton and perhaps Jenas in the final 24hrs of the transfer window and end up a touch short. The next few days are huge IMO. We need 2 or 3 more good players and then I think we will have a great chance. Otherwise we may just come up short
Unfortunately I can't get my hand on the actual Stat so that 25% figure is a Swords Hoopster guesstimation West Brom in recent years would have brought the number up a bit with their yo-yoing and Newkie and West Ham did it in recent years too. Perhaps its somewhat easier for Clubs in the last few years because of the parachute payments but its still a very tough ask nonetheless. Maybe I'm being too pessimistic saying we might struggle because as you pointed out in another thread, Judo, we have done some good work in the transfer market over the Summer. We need to do a lot more before the month is out though!
Didn't our Joey do it with Newcastle a couple of years back? If memory serves they even loaned Pete Damage from us and still went straight up. Having Joey in form and seemingly level headed has to be a positive omen in this regard. Some of us smelled the turd that was last season before it even started. This season does seem to have a different aroma.
Correct Rhino and they took Routledge off us as well. It is possible, no doubt about it. I thought that that Newkie side was in free fall at the time and predicted they'd go down to Lge 1! Hughton did a spectacular job at that Club.
I really don't think we will struggle, as you suggest swords. With the current squad I would expect us to be in or around the play offs. 2 or 3 additions and I believe we could be pushing for the top two spots.
No chance we will struggle like a Wolves ... I will pay for a nice holiday if we go down for Swords I have looked over the other sides and we are in the top three currently IMO If we get anything at Leeds and Bolton then I would say we are on our way We lack finishing at the moment and should have 9 points not 7 I can only see us getting stronger I do not look at stats just football and we look fine We could lose 6 players and struggle of course but most sides and most people know we are strong It will not be a surprise if we go straight back up that is rubbish IMO
Swords, my thread was meant as a 'What If', and I am certainly not over-confident that we might go straight back up. I was trying to make a point about the squad that Redknapp is trying and somewhat failing to put together based around 'good old pros'. We definitely need to make some more signings, but if we do, and we are lucky enough to get promoted, we will need to have another clearout next summer.
I at first thought rangers would run away with league ? the parachute payments, harry redknapp is a massive coup for a club like rangers, th e squad they have etc. but I thought I will wait until sept 2nd until I part with any cash backing rangers, rangers never went down due to a poor squad like reading, rangers went down to mainly not having a good team spirit. its usually the bigger clubs that come back up, west ham, Newcastle, the rest don't come back up, apart from boing boing baggies, palace after a few years and hull, and reading, I do not know any other club in the last 15 years, so will rangers buck the trend, I say they will because of harry the wheeler dealer and t.f, on the side of caution, rangers have not played anyone of note yet, so scrappy wins against Ipswich and sheff. weds could be vital wins come what may. buts its not guaranteed
You gotta love Oddball. But you also gotta remember he gets every single prediction as wrong as you could get.
This league is a marathon not a sprint. I think we will definitely make the play offs and possibly the top two. A lot depends on who we sign in the next couple of weeks and some luck with injuries and suspensions. I am hopeful. The next few weeks will give us an indication of how our season is likely to go. Our reintroduction to the Championship has been very gentle so far.
26.6% return in the first season since 93/94, the first season of promotion back to the new Premier League, that is 16 teams out of a possible 60. On four occasions 2 out of 3 have returned and 8 times no team has returned. So overall. the odds are just over 3/1 to return first time. Personally, I think the squad we currently have doesn't have either the creativity or the natural width to win this league at present and I'd rate them around 6th-9th as they are. Bring in a proper playmaker, another striker, a winger and a utility defender (Baird would do) and we could make the top two...
If we are top at the october international break we WILL be promoted stats dont lie, in the last 10 years only 1 team has failed to gain promotion and that was Cardiff when they were top at that point in the season.
We've made a great start so far. Every player that starts looks up for it, which in itself is quite a turnaround in team spirit. Especially when you compare it to the performances at the end of last season. This is quite a feat when you consider all the comings and goings that are occurring right now. With all the changes in and around the squad you would, at best hope to see a good team spirit formulating. To see this as well as putting seven points on the board ( Should be nine as DT said ) is as good a start as could be hoped for. So going back to Sword's Op. Yes, it is over confident to think we will go straight back up. I didn't think we would before the season started. I hoped we would, just like I did when I was a kid, that we would win something. Whether that be a cup or the league. Now, I can only go what I have seen so far on the pitch. So far it's been good. Will it continue? No one can know. But if we keep growing game by game and getting stronger and stronger, boy, some of these Skybet Championship sides are going to get one hell of a beating.
The next 2 games should give us a better idea of how our season will go If we pick up 4 points from those games I would expect us to stay near the top all season
