Vettel's to lose really... Got a substantial points lead, still got a great car that is more than capable of winning/getting podium places until the end of the season. He's got three guys chasing him that will no doubt take points off each other, they may also take points off Vettel too, but not at a rate that will effect the eventual outcome, that being his 4th WDC title in a row. Lotus should be there or there abouts, but that depends on their ability to develop, if they stand still then they could go backwards. Ferrari MUST developer quicker and better for the remainder of the season or they will be also rans too! Mercedes, with the 47 Technical Director's appear to be developing better this year than previous, if they keep that up and have finally nailed their tyre issues, then I can see Hamilton being best of the rest, still can't see him winning the Title. Gotta consider the other teams that may throw a spanner in the works. McLaren may have a decent car come the second half of the season, they won at Monza and Spa last year, if they can find that sort of form them that too could help or hinder Vettel. Force India appear to have gone off the boil but the next two races should suit their power plant so they too could feature. Looking forward to the second half of the season if not the outcome!
I think Vettel needs to qualify in front of one of the two mercedes in the next couple of races. If he doesn't you might find that Rosberg will farm Lewis....meaning he is try to back up the field and give Lewis space up front. I hear all the talk from Wolff about urging the team to consolidate for next year... That is just talk... if there is a chance they have to go for it... yes, i know they started this year concentrating on 2014, but hey, they over-achieved, and they are now contenders, I really dont think they will sit back and say..oh we will ease off and go full force next year. There are still too many points on the table for that sort of talk. And that is exactly why I believe they will insist on team orders from the next race, especially if they lock out the front row. If they get a win next race they will go after that championship for sure. And if Vettel goes 3rd or lower that will be an even bigger incentive for them. So guys, look out for the two mercedes in qualifying, if they lock out the front them watch Lewis take off like a flash while Rosberg (well I cant say block because that is illegal) back up everybody and if Vettel is behind him then Lotus and Ferrari will be biting at his tail. Remember, Red Bull doesnt follow well, meaning....they seem to run hot very quickly when running for several laps behind other cars. I dont think they are happy following and we have heard them team from time to time asking Vettel to drop back to give the car a little clean air because it was running way too hot. At times Vettel seemed to be ignoring them because he was still trying to pass and they had to repeat the "order" (orderis it is Webber, request..as it is Vettel) lol...Anway, we will look at qualifying to see if my analysis is correct. But hell, it is so far away...sometimes it feels like 10 days before Christmas and your parent bought your gift and have them hidden away somewhere...I cant wait! lol
Rosberg will not play second fiddle for Lewis after Malaysia and it wont stop him taking wins either when they arrive. He demands to show he can compete with Lewis, not give hand outs and show his submissive side like Heikki once did which proved fatal for his F1 career. If he is smart and wants to be F1 champion he will act like Webber and tell Mercedes/Lewis to jog on with the helping hands with the WDC as he is there to win himself as it says in his contract.
That attitude hasn't get Webber very far though. If Rosberg wants the teams assistance in the future, say if he were ahead in the WDC next year, he'd do well to play ball this year if required. If he does his own thing now then he can't expect the team to tell Lewis to roll over in the future if the need arose (regardless of whether anyone thinks Lewis would or wouldn't help out).
I prefer it when teams give drivers equal chance to win, although theres a point where one driver should be favoured if he has a chance to win the title. I'm not sure where this line is but Hamilton is 40 points ahead with 225 points left to collect, thats a gap of ~18% of the remaining points. I personally don't feel thats enough of a gap but if Hamilton outscores Rosberg by any amount in Spa then he'll be ahead by over 20% of the total points remaining and so probably should be favoured. The team need to find the happy medium between the Ferrari principle of out and out number one and the McLaren principle of not helping a driver until its to late. That said, at the end of the day I believe Hungary was a one off and only bad luck for Vettel will give Hamilton a chance of the title.
I totally agree, allsaintchris. It's not a matter of showing he can or cannot compete with Lewis, it's all about winning a championship. VIVA CARLOS SAINZ Jr....Do you really understand the difference between competing with your team mate one one hand and co-operating to win a championship on the other hand? Fighting with Lewis right now will get mercedes no where. Rosberg has no real chance of winning, so the next best thing is to try to push your teammate to the championship if you can. That wouldn't mean that he is No.2 in the team, it means that he is seeing the bigger picture for the team's sake. I am sure if he were in front of Lewis he would want the same co-operation from Lewis and the team especially if Lewis had no chance to winning the title. You see, you never know when it will be your time to get the help..you never know. And the point made about Webber is totally out of sync with what I am saying... Red Bull favours Vettel from Race 1 and I think that is totally wrong - no wonder why Webber feels that way... and you cant blame him, and if Mercedes were playing that same game I would be the first to criticize them too. But we are in the second half of the season and Rosberg is having a tough time trying to catch Lewis, furthermore getting near to Seb. The only chance mercedes has is to try to lock the front row and let the driver with the most points make the dash while the other driver give support. And allsaintchris, you are very right when you said that if at any time in the future Rosberg is in the lead and he and the team needs Lewis to play second fiddle it would be very hard for the team to call on Lewis for help if Rosberg doesnt help him this time. I believe Rosbery should help out even if he has to call for his pound of flesh later on, but winning the championship is everything, you dont get anything for fighting your partner and losing the chance to win a championship....Just my opinion.
That said, at the end of the day I believe Hungary was a one off and only bad luck for Vettel will give Hamilton a chance of the title. I Dont think it would be fair to say that with 225 points on the table in Hamilton's case or Lotus and Ferrari case. Those three have beaten Red Bull already this season, so we have to see what they bring in the second half, and dont think for one minute that Ferrari will lie down and play dead, so I wouldnt use the words "bad luck". I think team tactics will play a big part in the final outcome....as I said before ..thats just my opinion.
And Rosberg helping Lewis to take control of the team wont help his chances in the future but only give more power to Lewis in the long run, in short Rosberg is the one who loses the most in reality if he does help Lewis and he would of sealed his F1 career there and then 100% There's a reason why Webber didn't do it at Red Bull because he knew for a fact that he would never get that "I owe you one" down the line, he had to be greedy or fade away in F1. Rubens and Massa never got that favour with Ferrari helping Michael and Alonso, DC and Heikki never really got that favour with McLaren helping Mika and Lewis. See that pattern? Come on! if you were Nico and you knew you only had a few chances to get a WDC would you go out of your own way to strengthen your own team mates position in a top team like this? When you know for a fact that you had most of the bad luck and is the major reason why the gap to your biggest rival is so big? I think you are just hoping Rosberg will bow to Mercedes' pressure when in fact I don't think he will after how ****ed off he was after Malaysia this year and the media was all over it. If Rosberg is smart *which he is* he would of said in advance after Malaysia and maybe even before the start of the season, within the contract he has equal status and it isn't going to change whatever the situation Mercedes would demand. Also the 40 million contract he signed a few years back is a bit much to just be a number 2...
I personally believe, no real evidence for this, just a hunch, that Mercedes had good reason to keep Rosberg behind Hamilton in Malaysia, I think that if Rosberg had gone through and hunted down the leaders like he wanted he probably would have run out of fuel, and that was why Mercedes wanted him to hold station, because it was the only way to ensure that both drivers maintained the right pace to reach the end of the race with fuel left in the car. We saw that in Germany Mercedes didn't expect Nico to just get out of Lewis' way to the extent that it interfered with Hamilton's race. Possibly influenced by the fact that it was Rosberg's home race but he definitely "did a Button" on Hamilton. So while I definitely think that Mercedes will implement team orders fairly soon (they'd be fools not to) and they certainly won't be like Mclaren in 2010 pretty much point-blank refusing to back Hamilton exclusively until Button was mathematically out of the championship (having been realistically out of it for several races). Mercedes will let Rosberg race Hamilton for a while, a 40-point gap becomes a hell of a lot smaller if Hamilton bins the car two races in a row... but as the number of points available decreases, Rosberg will find it harder and harder to get support from the team this season. I'd suspect any updates for Spa/Monza will be geared towards Hamilton's side of the garage, for sure.
No driver wants to play second-fiddle... They just aren't programmed like that. Unfortunately for them, there are times when they have to. It's probably too early for Merc to make that call though. It would be harsh on Rosberg if they did.
Mercedes will let Rosberg race Hamilton for a while... But TomTom94....How long will a while be? By the time they are certain Rosberg is out of it he might have taken away valuable points from Lewis and Lewis himself may be out of the championship fight. For mercedes to realistically stay in the fight they have to start with team orders right after the break, even if they have to promise Rosberg a bigger than usual Christmas present. It is better to win helping each other than to lose fighting each other. And yes, Sgthaji, it will be a little harsh on Rosberg, but teams have to make hard decisions to win and they can do it without going the extreme like Red Bull. Who knows, Hamilton might have to repay the favour some time...Just my opinion.
Oh I agree that hard decisions sometimes need to be made when fighting for a title, but implementing team orders too soon could do more harm than good, especially when it's not quite yet clear if they are truly in a position to take on RBR. If they come back strong after the summer break, then they'll have to consider their options though.
Dhel: I understand what you are saying (hic'). However, you seem to be trying to measure someone else's juggling act. When considering Mercedes' progress this season, and the possibility of benefiting through imposed orders, some might have preferred to take such a decision earlier (e.g. Ferrari/Red Bull style?), whilst others might postpone such a decision for several more races â or even all the way to the end (e.g. McLaren style?). Others might see now as precisely the right moment. So you could be exactly right, or exactly not right! For most teams, the decision rests upon an interpretation of an equation which is often in a state of flux. (Please bear with me here; I've had more than my beverage quotaâ¦) For a start, we must be conscious that there are two Championships being contested. From the perspective of a team relegating its drivers' individual bids for their championship as secondary to the team's (best example probably being McLaren), the equation runs thus: 'maximum points (for our team) are most likely when both of our drivers fight as hard as they can throughout the whole season to complete each and every race in the shortest possible time, so long as they do not take each other out.' From the perspective of a team prioritising the kudos of having a the world champion driver by the end of the season as more important than the Constructors' Championship (Ferrari and their copycats, Red Bull, are the clearest examples), the equation runs thus: 'maximum points for our favoured driver are most likely if our second driver does everything possible to maximise our lead driver's chances from the earliest possible moment.' The state of flux I mentioned earlier is something which can be ignored by adopting either strategy at the earliest possible opportunity (Ferrari did this with Schumacher right from the very first race of every season he drove for them, as did Benetton). And of course, this also applies to a team without a realistic hope of either title. However, the dilemma faced in choosing between the two does occur when a team considers one (or both) of its drivers to be in the running for the Drivers' Championship, whilst at the same time being concerned about its standing in the Constructors' Championship. Without a realistic shot at either title, there is no dilemma. But when a team begins to consider its potential to exceed expectation, either in terms of the teams' or its drivers' perspectives, it can become critically important â especially if there is not already some clear policy in place (as was/is the Rosberg/Hamilton case). In fact it can become a real dilemma; particularly if the question intensifies at about half way through a season. Here it is at its most intense because focussing on maximising points for one driver requires a realistic number of remaining races to make the gamble worthwhile, yet this strategic thinking was not previously adopted because earlier in the season it was not considered a realistic hope). And this is where Mercedes are at present. The question to consider is whether they really consider themselves to be in with a realistic bid for the Driver's Championship. If they are not, all that matters is the teams' standing at the end of the season; with both drivers out for themselves. Whatever the decision, it must be absolutely clear when it is made â and there is no going back! If a team's position in the standings is not already clear at decision time, making a bid for the WDC can result in a team finishing further down the order than it might otherwise have⦠I really don't know how Brawn is reading this yet; but my guess is that he will postpone any such decision until things become clearer. Of course, as you say, Dhel, this allows the possibility of fewer final points for one's eventual title contender! Nonetheless, I still think it's a little too soon for Mercedes to be seriously considering a bid for either Championship this season. Therefore, at least for the moment, I just don't think it's realistic.
If Ross Brawn is reading this: http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/109242 Shades of BMW circa 2008 much?
So what happens if Nico wins the next 3 races (75+84=159), Lewis comes 2nd in all 3 (54+124=178) and Vettel fails to get on the podium at two of them which is very likely at Spa and Monza (36+172=208)? That would leave Nico a gap of 49pts and Lewis of 30pts with 6 races to go and both still having plenty of time to take the fight to Vettel. Both would still be within 2 wins for the lead. Apart from Spa maybe the next two races (Monza and Singapore) are some of Lewis' weakest tracks or he has 8 times out of 10 done something silly, that as well as Suzuka, Korea and India still to come which he has never been particularly strong at (Historically). They need to make Vettel panic against 2 rivals, not just 1 because Red Bull will see it a mile coming and know who the enemy is. Alonso would of won 2010 if Red Bull backed Webber instead of both drivers as Alonso would of just marked Webber the second it became obvious and that would of been that. Mercedes need to make it difficult, not simple for Vettel on who to mark because he will just make things harder for Lewis at every moment he gets to overtake him. Seb would consider his buffer as a weapon to use, something on the lines within the card game of "Texas hold em" when one person has most of the chips and they just keeps buying out the pot rather than playing the hand dealt to them.
You seem to be discounting that Alonso and Kimi are still in there. Even if Rosberg won the next two races lewis will have to be out of the points and Kimi and Alonso will have to be out too for Rosberg to have a realistic chance, while that is possible, it highly unlikely. What I am saying is that they will still try to beat Rosberg because he will be trying to take points off the others so lewis will get a buffer. You must admit, Lewis has been driving with much more maturity for the last two seasons, don't expect him to make those same mistakes he made before. If you check it he has hardly put a wheel wrong last season and this one too even though he is now with a new team. I very much doubt Rosberg will get that close to Lewis unless he has a couple car failures. Rosberg is quick in qualifying but it seems as though Lewis always have a little something extra and we are seeing it now that he is getting accustomed to the mercedes. They are two very good drivers but right now one has a fairly big gap on the other and I really believe that team must start backing the one in that lead in the second half of the season, if they don't they will fight each other and end up running out of points at the end. Then everyone will be saying..oh mercedes should have backed one driver earlier. They have to the hard decision now.
