Barney will be all over Lieutenant Miller tomorrow and the horse trained by the forums favourite trainer has an obvious chance but I am drawn to another by the defection of the Miller's Ascot jockey to Graham Lee KAZBOW 16-1. This one reeled off three wins at the start of the season in very progressive fashion and then was put away, probably with this in mind. He has a great chance of adding to a wonderful season for his likeable pilot. The 5.25 is all about the draw and Mikey Attwater must be wondering who ran over the stables lucky cat, Bronze Prince drawn 29 of 29 today and Bravo Echo drawn 20 of 20 in a race that he would have a huge chance in. However, you need a low draw and a horse that can race fairly handy and the one that fits the bill for me is ALEJANDRO 11-1. Brilliant stuff on here on Tuesday fellas, keep up the good work!
I'm a fan of New Approach and therefore Dawn Approach; but I have a feeling that Toronado may just improve past him tomorrow. Excess Knowledge in the 2.30 might be the one at 2/1. Couldn't feel confident about any tomorrow though.
Am off to Glorious tomorrow But just the one bet for me at the moment all about DAWN APPROACH think he will he win and win once again by the shortest of distances but imo he is the best miler in europe and that will once again be proven tomorrow Good Luck to all!
There is another horse that may also give Barney's Lieutenant Millera bit to think about tomorrow Stick, Sohar gave him 1lb and an eight length beating at the back end of last season when 2nd and third to Ardlui, and yet opposes tomorrow on 6lb better terms, 12-1 looks a good value price.
Goodwood 2.30 Elkaayed 9/2 3.05 Dawn Approach 11/10 3.40 Toormore 15/8 Sandown 7.30 Ogbourne Downs 10/1
1.55 Goodwood Mexicali 25/1 If the forecast rain stays away then I'll be backing Kazbow 16/1 but I can't quite get over the price of Dean Ivory's 5 year old Mexicali and I think she has an excellent chance of landing this contest if lasting the mammoth 2m5f trip which looks a strong possibility on doing. Formerly with Andre Fabre in France, this lightly raced mare showed some good form with her best effort coming undoubtedly coming on her final start for the trainer on her sole 4 year old outing at Maisons-laffitte in April last year when winning eased down from a subsequent Group 1 winner in Sortilege (took him a while to progress to that level) in a Conditions race in what is generally pretty good form. Mexicali went through the sales ring in February this year and was picked up for 20,000 GNS in February this year by current trainer Dean Ivory. On her British debut, Mexicali ran a highly encouraging race on her first start in 13 months when a not overly knocked about 6th in a decent handicap at Ascot over 12f in May off a 4lb higher mark of 84 before absolutely bombing out on 2 occasions at Windsor and Doncaster (no idea why) which saw her fall to a handicap mark of 74. She bounced back hugely from those desperately disappointing displays when running out a ready winner of an ok event at Kempton over 2m earlier this month on her AW debut and it was certainly a massive step forward for the mare. Settled in behind the pace under today's jockey Seb Sanders, Mexicali hit the front with about 4f to go and entering the home straight she had the race sewn up with Sanders persistently looking behind his mount for dangers. Although Sanders had to administer the whip on a couple of occasions and her stride was shortening late on, Mexicali ran out a comfortable 1.75L winner for which a 6lb rise seems very fair. The form of that race hasn't been tested but she'll clearly have to improve again but she showed some smart form in France and this unexposed 5 year old definitely has the scope for further improvement. Given that her stride was shortening over the 2m trip, you'd have to have doubts about the 2m5f trip but I think she was in front plenty soon but there is a lot of stamina in her family and I think there is a very good chance she'll stay the extreme distance. I definitely feel that she's better than her mark of 80 and given that she comes in here with a ready success (albeit in much lesser company) I feel the bookies have got her priced up very wrong and I cannot quite believe she's a 25/1 chance. Although she seems fine on soft ground, I would prefer if not too much rain fell and it was good to soft ground as testing conditions will place even more emphasis on stamina and she isn't guaranteed to stay. Well drawn in stall 7, I hope Sanders can get across to the rail and occupy a position not too far off the pace and if so I think she has an excellent chance of winning this. Trainer Dean Ivory couldn't be in better form at the moment with his last 4 runners all winning and Seb Sanders is back riding to the level which saw him share the jockeys title with Jamie Spencer in 2007. Although this is a big step up in class, I definitely feel Mexicali has the ability to be a major force in this contest and with a lovely racing weight of 8-10 I'm hoping she can land this decent prize at a big price. 3.35 Galway King High 12/1 At his peak King High was seen winning a handicap chase easily off a mark of 127 back in 2011 and although he's clearly had a lot of issues since then jockey Mikey Butler stated after his win LTO "I think we've got him right". Although clearly nowhere near as good over hurdles as fences, this 9 year old registered his 7th career success and first win since his career best back in October 2011 earlier this month with an impressive victory on his 15th run since that victory with a 2L success over timber at Sligo earlier this month for which a 7lb rise seems very reasonable. Over 20f on decent ground off a mark of 105, King High was held up towards the rear of the field under Mikey Butler and he travelled through the race smoothly for the most part. After making good headway to track the leaders heading into the home straight, King High hit the front jumping the last and although Butler had to get after him a lot in the run in to maintain his advantage he scored by a decent 2L in the end. The form of that race hasn't really been tested and I wouldn't expect it to be that strong but it represents the first time he has gotten his head in front after a torrid 20 month period and I'm hopeful that his problems are no firmly behind him. A 7lb rise to 112 seems fair for his win and although he has never won off a mark this high over hurdles I'm sure he has the ability to do so if back in peak condition. Looking at the race, it doesn't look overly strong and if King High can build upon his breakthrough success I think he's going to have a major say in this race. Mikey Butler takes off a handy 3lb and gave him a fine to win LTO and cheekpieces are reapplied (won in them before) which should hopefully keep his interest and concentration up. Although pulled up in this race last year, I'm not really concerned about that given he was completely out of form then and he ran well enough at the track over fences back in 2011. While he wouldn't want much rain, a little ease in the ground wouldn't be much of a concern and Eoin Doyle has his horses in fine form at the moment. If his win earlier this month represents the first time King High was completely sound since 2011 and if building on that success, I think a big run is on the cards for this 9 year old and in what looks a very winnable race hopefully he can reward very patient connections with a win at the Galway Festival. 4.10 Galway Landero 12/1 Strictly on their run in May, favourite Shanpallas has the beating of Landero (RFC on the pair definitely worth a go) but I think he has improved a lot since then and he couldn't have been more impressive when landing a big punt by owner/trainer Andrew Heffernan on his last start when never coming off the bridle in winning a decent contest at Roscommon earlier this month when upped to 3m for the first time. After beginning life on the flat for Andreas Wohler in Germany, Landero moved over to Ireland to Bernard Anthony Heffernan and after a good 2nd to the useful Roman Flight on his 2nd start over hurdles he shed his maiden over timber on his 3rd start when winning a fairly average event at Down Royal in June last year and although she ran respectably over hurdles subsequently for her former trainer that was as good as it got. Landero joined current connections this year and after making a good handicap debut off a mark of 112 in testing conditions when a good 4th when unfancied at Kilbeggan back in May he ran another good race a couple of weeks later off a mark of 113 when beaten about 10L by todays favourite Shanpallas over 2m4f at Down Royal. His final start came off that same mark earlier this month when upped to 3m at Roscommon for the first time and he could not have been more impressive when winning on the bridle by over 7L as he landed a gamble in the process under todays pilot Robbie Power. The form of that race is yet to be tested but the runner up Courtncatcher came into the race in good form (runs in the 3.35) and I'm sure the race will work out well. I think the 12lb rise to a mark of 125 is the reason he's available at 12/1 today but if the same Landero turns up then I think he has every chance of defying the penalty as he couldn't have won any easier. On collateral form, Shanpallas has the beating of Landero (and indeed Irish Soul from Killbeggan 4th) given that Andrew Heffernan's 6 year old has 10L to make up on that rival who is actually 2lb better off but I firmly believe that Landero is a different horse to the one that showed up that day and 3 miles has brought out the best in him. Dublin based Heffernan has done really well with his small string of jumpers with 4 wins from just 13 runners and if the rain doesn't turn the ground soft I think he has the ability to shoulder this big weight and a 12lb rise and give his trainer a first winner at the Galway Festival.
- i came on here to tip kazbow as well Stick! The other one i'm really keen on today is klepht in the galway plate and they will be my only 2 bets of the day. Good luck to all with their selections today.
I quite like one in the last at Goodwood but I want to see if they move away from the rail in the earlier races before tipping it up
Morning all the first at goodwood seems a hot topic on paper last night I rounded it down to three 2 of which have been mentioned and one is very lightly raced my first pick was sticks kazbow which is better odds than I would have expected so I am on ew the second wasgassin golf now a non runner the third ermyn lodge rank outsider could be worthy of a small ew low on weight can do the distance doesn't mind the conditions has won at the grade has had a run out 28days ago at kempton so could be ready to regain some old form Good luck all
Sod it Esprit De Midas @33/1 Yard are in great form and this horse has plenty of positives if you are willing to overlook his last few runs. He is drawn low, has won off this mark before and I think conditions are perfect for him. He has had a break since poor efforts at Newmarket and Windsor and if he has been returned to peak fitness he will outrun his price. They replace the claimer with Seb Sanders and on ground with cut in it he has shown his best. Many of this field will be unsuited by the going but not this boy. Throw in the yards excellent form (11113212) and he is a crackerjack price. Throw in Mexicali from the first race too for same yard and jockey.
Goodwood 305 cant see dawn approach or tornado being out of the top but the odds are pants so small tricast allways with declaration of war just to keep me occupied
Morning, troops. Hope everyone well. I’m sure that I speak for everyone, and I do mean everyone, on the forum when I say that the sight I’m looking forward to see most this afternoon at Goodwood is Mr Henderson in his Panama. Recent research in ‘Panama Hats Monthly’ showed that 98% of chaps who wear such apparel look complete and utter plonkers but Mr Henderson, rather like my good self, falls into the 2% who manage to look natty and distinguished. Speaking of the forum’s favourite trainer I am greatly looking forward to his Lieutenant Miller run in the card commencer (1.55) and am hopeful of the old boy chalking up another success. The Lieutenant has run with great credit on the level this term and although he has risen 9 pounds to 88 this has been deserved owing to a fine victory and highly creditable placed efforts at Newbury and in the 'Ascot Stakes'. Neither the ground or the extreme distance will hold any fears to the Lieutenant and he looks poised to go very close this afternoon. Good luck all.
This season does lack many standout performers, with champion sprinter elect Lethal Force being one of few from the top draw. For the Classic generation, the only place to look appears to be the milers on both sides of the Channel. The Sussex Stakes does look like a match between the two three year olds, Dawn Approach and Toronado as they are four or five pounds better than Declaration Of War. Taking their most recent meeting as the best form line, I think there is good reason to believe that Toronado can win as he was hampered as he was coming with his run at Ascot much more than Dawn Approach and there was nothing in it at the post. Whilst we hope that it turns into a thriller, common sense tells us that one of them will fail to fire and the excuses will be the old chestnuts. With just seven going to post, I think the bookies may look to lay Declaration Of War and since the money is on the front two ante post they may look to take one of them on as well. I would love to see Dawn Approach, Toronado and Intello meet in the Prix Du Moulin on 15 September to decide who is champion miler, but that is not going to happen. Can Cap O'Rushes give Charlie Appleby a winning start as a trainer in the second race? On the face of it his run in the Irish Derby is the best form on show given the winner's reasonable effort in the King George. I will be watching the marathon opener at Goodwood to see what the ground is actually like before backing anything there today.
Stick, I don’t think Graham Lee has defected from the Lieutenant. Queally rode him at Newbury first time up this term and has since been unavailable (due to his next run being up North and then being committed to riding Lady Cecil’s Tiger Cliff for Mr Ponsonby in the Ascot Stakes). Given the owner’s close association with Queally, via the Cecil’s, I would imagine Mr Ponsonby would have requested he ride the old boy once more. Nass, on the Ivory yard I see that their current star (Tropics) was purchased for just 2,500 gns in 2011. Two years previously Godolphin had purchased him for $700,000 as a yearling! Another shocking episode for the ‘boys in blue’, methinks.
