Cirrus Des Aigles was 7/4 with BetFred last time I looked and they are keeping Hillstar short (6/1). I have not seen Paddy Power advertising “money back” if Cirrus Des Aigles wins so they do not think it is another foreigner doomed for defeat like the Queen Anne Stakes at the Royal meeting.
Ultra confident Timeform. Egg on their face if they get this one wrong. "France has the best horse in the world, who's barred from running in its - and Europe's - premier race, the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. It's a staggering state of affairs, more so considering the flimsy pretence of stallion-making has been undermined by virtue of the fact a filly has taken the last two runnings: two runnings that, without any doubt in my mind, Cirrus des Aigles would have won had he been eligible. As a dual-Arc winner, Cirrus des Aigles would have a CV to truly justify his outstanding rating and, as a dual-Arc winner, he'd be odds-on - long odds-on - for the King George on Saturday. So why isn't he? Often in racehorses, the reality doesn't match up to the myth, but it's the other way around where Cirrus des Aigles is concerned: his myth doesn't match up to the reality. In short, he's not sexy. The gelded Cirrus des Aigles is desexualised in body, and he's also unsexy in most people's mind. A seven-year-old gelding with loads of racing behind him, with an unfashionable pedigree, and from a little-known stable in France, Cirrus des Aigles is more Gerard Depardieu than Olivier Martinez. Not sexy. But a Timeform rating of 135 is sexy. Winning eleven pattern races, including three Group 1s, by an average distance of four and a half lengths is sexy. Pushing the uber-sexy Frankel closer, much closer, than any other horse managed in 2012 is sexy. The myth also doesn't match the reality in terms of his ground requirements. Though it's true that he's in his element in the mud, two of his three Group 1 wins have come on fast turf, firstly in the 2011 Champion Stakes, which in turn ticked the Ascot box, double-ticked when he chased home Frankel the following year, and secondly in the mile-and-a-half Sheema Classic in Dubai, where he beat St Nicholas Abbey, who got sexier with age, perhaps explaining, albeit irrationally, why he was favourite over Cirrus des Aigles before his career-ending injury. It's my view - and indeed the Timeform consensus - that Cirrus des Aigles was a good bet at 3/1 with St Nicholas Abbey in the race, but he's an even better bet at 6/4 without him. That's because, on Timeform ratings, Cirrus des Aigles is as much as 11 lb clear of what's left against him, which equates to almost six lengths on firmish going. The opposition does include Novellist, who beat Cirrus des Aigles amongst others in a Group 1 at Saint-Cloud last month, but during his epic career, now in its sixth season, Cirrus des Aigles has never once been on his game first time out, his reappearance seen purely as a means to an end, and you can guarantee that, with a run under his well-worn belt, the real Cirrus des Aigles will turn up at Ascot. There are some top-notch three-year-olds around, but not from the normal channel of the Derby, any Derby, whether it's the Irish one from which Trading Leather emerged or the Royal Ascot version that produced Hillstar. Both are towards the bottom of the King George ratings, below even an older Group 1 virgin like Universal, while Ektihaam has blushed and backed out the twice he's had a chance to become a man on the top floor. What Universal and Ektihaam will do is make it easy for Christophe Soumillon and Cirrus des Aigles, their forcing style meaning the world's best stalker will get an ideal tow through the race from stall 1. From the set-up of his campaign to the set-up of the race, everything is in place for Cirrus des Aigles to show his home nation just what they're missing because of what he's missing, but the Arc's loss is the King George's gain. The president of the castration nation, Cirrus des Aigles is proof that, in racing, the whole is indeed more than the sum of certain parts. The industry conservatives might look down their noses at geldings but, right now, it's the geldings who are looking down on the rest of the thoroughbred population. There's a common misconception in racing that 'value' pertains only to big prices, but what about the 6/4 shot who should be 1/2? What about the number one racehorse on the globe against a handful of second-raters? As the Timeform ratings tell you, 6/4 about Cirrus des Aigles in the King George are generous odds. Sometimes you have to play big to win big, and that takes only one thing: balls."
There are reasons to oppose the favourite but 11lbs is a hell of an advantage to throw away. Regardless of that advantage I don't see him as the 1/2 chance Timeform so confidently claim. His form against Frankel can be ignored as it was on soft going over 10f. His best form (imo) on a sound surface was at Ascot 2 years ago when he beat So You Think over 10f in a very fast time. He's 7 years old now so can't be getting any better. I certainly wouldn't bet against him but neither would I risk any money on him. For an interest in the race I'm looking for something to beat the favourite. If Novellist is as good on a sound surface as he is on a softer surface then he would be my choice but that is another IF. So I'm going on pedigree and what looks to be an improver in Trading Leather but the price is shocking. By a favourite of mine, Teofilo out of a Sinndar mare. Not only that but Teofilo is by Galileo out of the Danehill mare Speirbhean (IRE) who is a descendant of the great Ribot, my all time favourite.
Really? I don't think that will inconvenience TL but that does make it interesting between Novellist and CDA. Glad I'm not backing in the race.
Lots of rain forecast tomorrow, if it hits Ascot it could be a bloodbath in betting terms. Going to start my research in a bit.
Timeform Ratings King George (all ratings weight-adjusted) 142 CIRRUS DES AIGLES 131 EKTIHAAM 130 UNIVERSAL 130 RED CADEAUX 130 NOVELLIST 129 TRADING LEATHER 129 VERY NICE NAME 125 HILLSTAR
If I had known that a mishap was to befall St Nicholas Abbey this week, I would have placed my Arc ante post bet on Flintshire last week at 6/1. With the no-chance Ballydoyle 20/1 shot removed, the bookies clipped Andre Fabre’s charge to 5/1. If you are intending to have an ante post interest in this year's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, it may be prudent to act before the Ascot showpiece starts at 3:50. If the horse you fancy is running in the King George and it is victorious, the odds for Longchamp in October will obviously contract. If the horse you fancy is not running, there are two ways that its odds can shorten when the winner crosses the line at Ascot: If Cirrus Des Aigles (ineligible for Longchamp) wins, the odds of all the other Ascot runners will lengthen and the odds of some of the Longchamp principals will shorten; otherwise, the victor will shorten as may some of the Longchamp principals whilst the vanquished will lengthen.
Cirrus Des Aigles wont stay a strong run 1m4 at Ascot in a million years, and only one horse older than 5 has ever won the King George, its a race for 3/4yo's. That said, it isnt a great King George, Trading Leather simply cant win, Novellist is beatable and Ektihaam wont get an easy lead. Hillstars performance at Ascot was much better than I initially thought and I think hes a goodthing today. Should have too much for Novellist in the final furlong. I think CDA's form is overrated, his best run was winning the Champion as a 5yo when he was at his peak, but So You Think and Snow Fairy were both running quick after the Arc and two 1m4 horses finished 3rd and 4rth. It was a good time though and for me its the strongest piece of form he has. Im not falling for the 1 3/4 second to Frankel, no way is that a true reflection of his ability, the round course at Ascot didnt really play to Frankels strengths, he missed the kick on woeful ground that suited CDA and still won practically on the bit, had that been York on nice ground Frankel would have beaten CDA 7 or 8 comfy. I think people are making too much of him always needing the run first time out, thats true for the majority of horses, but he has never ran as poorly as he did last time and I think it was both a case of him needing it and being past his best. Some people think he is going to win this in a canter, i'll be surprised if he finishes in the first 3, If I was bookie id lay him all day long at 6/4.
The race seems to have gone down hill in the last few years. Three out of the eight are geldings, since when were they allowed to compete? I thought it was a race for entires to pit the classic generation against their elders.
Fair comment Gladness but for at least 40 years people have argued the opposite case, that is 'This horse isn't the best because this gelding would have blah, blah , blah' A horse can improve 11lbs easily, and especially a 3yo midsummer.
Not exactly how most of us expected the King George to be run... Cirrus Des Aigles travelled comfortably behind the front four most of the race but flattened out quickly and found nothing on the fast ground in the straight. Hard to say whether it was simply the ground or whether he is not the same horse since his injury. Presumably his next run will be on home turf with almost guaranteed softer conditions. Novellist appeared to be a soft ground horse on previous form but was the clear beneficiary of the front-running efforts of Ektihaam and Universal. Once he went to the front there looked to be no prospect of either of the three year olds getting anywhere near him. No surprise that he is now one of the Arc favourites. Trading Leather just edged out Hillstar for the honour of best three year old. It will be interesting to see whether Jim Bolger targets the St Leger given the theory that the horse does not want it too slow and it could well be that on Town Moor. Given his pedigree, Sir Michael Stoute’s charge will surely be kept in training next year and should make up into a cracking four year old given that he is a half-brother to Crystal Capella.
Gladness, to go back to your point on geldings competing in Group 1 races: that used to be the rule. I think geldings were allowed to compete in Group 2s from 1974 (remember the Lockinge was then a Gp 2 and Boldboy was entered for it and won it: someone please correct me if I'm wrong). However I am certain the rules for Group 1s in the UK changed in 1986 and that year's Eclipse was the first race run under the new rules. Dancing Brave won anyway but Dick Hern ran a 4yo gelding of Lord Halifax's in the race that was quietly fancied but firmly put in his place by DB. I don't think the rulke is the same in France. QM, amazing what happens what you get when you have a fast pace! Good chance CdA did not quite get home with that pace. Monsun saw it out magnificently and to knock 2 seconds off the track record is quite something. Monsun was some sire.
The clock sorts them out Bustino. If horse A can get from A to B in time x and horse B can't there is no debate. Most races aren't run against the clock and therefore those races are won by the horse best suited by the tactics.
These current Group horses leave me cold! After Frankel retired, Cirrus Des Aigles was the world's top rated flat horse- 9lbs behind Frankel. Yesterday-and yet again- a Group One horse (CDA) turns in a dismal, inconsistent performance. And I'm not buying into the going as an excuse- historically top horses give of their best on any ground, irrespective of a preferred/ better showing on a particular surface. Cirrus Des Aigles' performance yesterday was, let's face it, dire- given one of the poorest King Georges ever run. Time may show that age has caught up with the horse, albeit very quickly, since he ran yesterday at least two stones below his 2012 rating. As regards, Novellist, he certainly looks a big improver- and a stayer. He was keen early on, but Johnny Murtagh kept his hands low and just managed to hold him in check. His ability to race prominently and really gallop all the way to the line augurs well for The Arc. Personally, I shouldn't fancy Al Kazeem to beat him (more so after Mukhadram's laboured performance yesterday), although the French three year olds , Treve and Flintshire, could have a big say.
The ground is the most important thing in racing and that was proven again yesterday, the fast pace and end to end gallop left no where to hide for CDA and he was beaten by a very good winner and then two horses who stayed on well in 2nd and 3rd. The winner travelled superbly and kicked clear wonderfully well, and whilst I don't see him winning the Arc (due to ground worries) I think he is as good as quite a few recent winners of the KG.
And I know that he has good form on soft going, but I do think that performance was a career best and I thought he had a wonderful action on the fast ground. He acted on it better than the 3rd and 4th home, and the front two for me were the two who liked the going the best.
Cirrus Des Aigles is nothing if not consistent, he was just overrated because he finished so close to Frankel, he ran his race yesterday, I didnt expect him to make the 3 on what id seen of him so his run didnt surprise me. He does not stay a true 1m4, Peslier stole the Sheema off a crawl(first 6f in 1.18.6) in a slow time. He is a 7yo, he peaked at 5 and held his form as at 6, his first run this year showed he was on the downgrade but he can still run to a decent level.
