the best way of looking at it is by points. can anyone see us getting less than the 44 points we achieved last season? if the answer is yes then we will be in the bottom third but unless we do substantially worse, ie 40 or probably less, we probably wouldn't go down. if the answer is no then we'll be comfortably mid table or better, maybe even top half. i think we'll get at least 44 again, probably a few more, perhaps 48+. we've certainly got more quality in the squad and we're not even finished in the transfer market yet. others around us have also strengthened but you're looking at 8 or 9 teams all bettering what we're doing. two or three may be equalling what we're doing as i type this.
great to see the relegation watch thread up again. it's so early doors which we all know, it will be interesting to look back at this early part of the thread say at the end of November when everyone has played 15 games. bound to be not much in 12 or 13 teams
This is actually a really important point, your right we actually took 3 more points from the top 6 that the bottom 6. However in one sense this give me more call to be optimistic there are lots of realistic point we could had to our total. We need to play better against the teams around us but that's more realistic than improving by doing better against the top 6.
The only problem with points Supers is the relevent point raised by Guru. Somehow, during the doom and gloom, we managed to take 16 points off the big boys. Bearing in mind the money being spent/likely to be spent by those teams at the moment are we likely to replicate that next season? If not we will have to get a fair number of extra points from the other fixtures just to stand still. I think 42/44 is as much as we can hope for and I will be happy with that.
1950, it's all subjective of course but i'd argue that its the middle clubs such as norwich, saints, swansea who are doing the best business while the big boys are failing to strengthen their current sides at the rate you'd expect. combined with our style of play last season and what we can build on i'd say we have as much, if not a better chance of achieving similar results. i'd also argue that the teams coming up are weaker than the sides which came up last season. i'd compare all three to reading more than i would saints/west ham. as i said above, its very difficult to predict anything at this stage - we are still four weeks away from even kicking off!
As you say it is a matter of opinion but the big boys failing to strengthen? Man City spent £60m with more to come. Man Utd after Bale and Fabregas - even if they fail they will not put the money back in the bank. Chelsea spent £45m and likely to sign Rooney. Arsenal are going to spend £75m. Spurs close to signing a striker for £22m and more to come. Crikey!!
are they strengthening in the right areas? man city's weakness last season was up front certainly so they've bought a couple but have they found the player to replace de jong, arguably their biggest miss last season? chelsea with mourinho in charge makes them stronger without buying anybody but schurrle and van ginkel both play in their strongest position - attacking midfielders, arsenal won't buy anybody no matter what they say, spurs may well lose their best player while united won't get fabregas or bale - i think moyes could be in for a tough year. i felt they needed quite a bit of work and they've not done anything of note yet. i don't think they've done good business by any stretch of the imagination. a few good players have been brought in but its about the right combination of players.
This thread has taken off already, CT and the opener is almost a month away! City have done very well to keep the core squad from last season (Holt is the only major loss, IMO) whilst strengthening the weak points very effectively. Last year the team stuttered as the defence was being rebuilt during the early games. This year, we've kept that defence together and added Olsson. Redmond has strengthened both wings and Surman will be available more than he was last season, but the key improvement is in the 'spine' with Fer and RvW coming in. You can't look at other team's new signings without looking at the players they have lost (like Tevez for ManCity). With at least two more signings to come, I feel confident that City will improve on 11th this year!
We will see Supers but I suspect that the spending spree we will see in the next month will verge on the sickening. Talking of sickening - any one else notice that when only English and Spanish Clubs were spending vast sums on players Mr Platini was continually spouting his mouth off about ' fair play financial rules ' Now that 2 French Clubs are the biggest culprits he has gone strangely quiet. What is French for hypocrite?
I think the point about the "big boys" strengthening in already strong areas is very valid. The thing with the likes of the Manchester and London clubs thy strengthen by replacing a £20m player with a £25m player who is a bit better. For the likes of us, Saints and Swans if we chuck £10m at replacing a player worth £2m I would argue that we have improved more than the top club. I do feel that we have done some excellent business in getting RvW, Fer, Redmond and Olssen and I am hopeful that we will pick up another couple of new faces to challenge for first team places. If we compare our first XI currently with the one which got us promoted there is a vast gulf in class with the addition of this years new boys plus Snod/Whittaker/Seb/Turner/Garrido/Howson/Tetty and possibly the invisible Butterfield. Compared to any of the big boys and arguably other than Saints and Swans I would suggest that we have the most improved squad in the league over the past couple of seasons and if CH continues to invest wisely then there is no reason we can't be looking up at the likes of Everton rather than nervously over our shoulders this season.
I would really love you to be right my friend but regretably I still trust the judgement of the Bookies - perhaps because they have taken so much money off me over the years!! As you say though - good thread.
I agree and there are so many potentially worse clubs than us, for instance I can't see Stoke doing to well, Newcastle another possible disaster, then you have all the new clubs coming up. There's loads of media hype out there about us being a dark horse in the premiership, I saw one article today predicting a top ten place and that was quite a critical piece in places. I'm full of optimism!
For me: Man United - Problems in central midfield mainly - not solved. Spurs - Need a striker - not solved Arsenal -I think their defence needs work - not solved Chelsea- Perhaps a striker short, still? Man City - Possibly the most promising. I also think Norfolkbhoy makes a decent point, up front we've replaced £2m Holt with £8.5m RvW, that's a big step up, compared to Jovetic or Negredo versus Tevez. I think this season our results against the big boys are anomalous, and we could be in the Prem another 10 seasons and not beat that points haul, it's against the newly promoted sides and mid-table sides that we need to be more ruthless. Hopefully the signing of RvW and Fer point to a team more capable of holding onto possession, and turning the screw against weaker sides. We'll see.
The thing about the bookies midway, is they lengthen or shorten the odds in accordance with bets placed, not on team form!
Balance the books. Still can't give any rep. It seems ages since I last gave you some. You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to canary-dave again.
Which, to be fair, is what I said originally. We are 4th favs for the drop because that is what the bookies think and what the punters are putting their money on not because they don't like us or because they want to do us down. Only time will tell whether the bookies and punters are wrong but, as I also said, look on the bright side - last year we were 6/5 this year we are 3/1.
