I think Stoke might struggle, and I will be having a fiver on Newcastle to go down. I've also had a flutter on us finishing in the top half.
Last 10 seasons: Straight back down: 12 (40%) Second season syndrome: 6 (20%) Third season: 1 (3%) Established team: 11 (37%) So only one team (Wolves 2012) has gone down in the same position as we are in. One established team looks likely though as well as one who has got promoted and either a second one who has gone up or a second season syndrome team: Let's then go for: Crystal Palace, Hull or Wet Sham, Stoke
Yeah, I've used 40% by mistake. So taking the 10%, that would fit with the idea that it gets harder for each team to survive beyond the first. Presumably then most seasons there's at least one team who majorly screw up somewhere along the line. Kent, I can't see West Ham going (unfortunately), I think Stoke and maybe Fulham could well be involved though.
Sorry if this has been posted already:updated relegation odds. http://betting.betfair.com/football...h-signings-prompt-mini-shift-220713-579.html?
Suppose reality is that anyone from last season's position 8 downwards could be in the relegation mix next season really.
I can't believe nobody is tipping the Baggies to go down? I had them to struggle last year, but of course they surprised everyone and performed well above their station to end up in the top half. However without the goals and raw power of Lukaku this year I honestly they could get found out, they certainly didn't look anything special when we turned them over in the penultimate game. I'm definitely getting involved in some of the 9/1 on offer I think the three new teams will obviously struggle, but of the rest I wouldn't be at all surprised to see WBA, Stoke and Fulham down there in the mix for a lot of the season.
i'm with munky - i think the baggies may struggle and i'm not overly sold on steve clarke. i know they have le sulk up front now but he is not the player he used to be and losing lukaku will be big. they probably have enough to stay up but i think we look a better side than they do. their form from christmas onwards was also worse than ours by the way. i don't like mark hughes but i actually think he's a good fit for stoke and they are a solid side, i don't see them going down. west ham should be fine as long as they stick with big sam. saints should be ok, similar to ourselves and swansea. villa are a weird one because i don't personally think keeping benteke will work in their favour - i think he'll have a difficult 2nd season and struggle to score as many goals and whilst lambert has signed some good young talent, are they good enough to make an immediate impact? i think fulham may get dragged down there and sunderland and newcastle probably won't see much improvement. newcastle will be tipped by many to struggle because of joe kinnear but i'm sure there will be movement within that club, difficult one to predict. i know sunderland have made a few decent signings but their manager is a volcano and i fully expect him to erupt at some point during the season leaving the wearsiders with a group of players signed by di canio. agree with others that any one of about 12 teams could go down. the three promoted teams on paper look the three weakest teams but as we know well ourselves, that means little. cardiff have a workmanlike side and i think they'll have a decent home record so i think they'll survive. hull have no goals in them at all and i can't see them staying up. palace will be an unknown quantity but i'd be surprised if they finish higher than 17th. obviously very difficult to predict at this early stage (so i could still change this) but i'd say the bottom eight will look something like this: 13 Newcastle United 14 Cardiff City 15 Aston Villa 16 Fulham 17 West Bromwich Albion 18 Crystal Palace 19 Sunderland 20 Hull City
I love the sense of optimism on this thread with most people under the impression that we will be sailing along way out of trouble. I reckon that this will be the case but for us to do so we will need the team to gel well and we will need a bit of luck with injuries as currently (and I know that we will be getting some more players in) our squad is currently thinner than last season - definitely more quality but not so many bodies in reserve. As things stand should RvW get a knock we couldn't play 4-4-2 with two senior strikers even if CH wanted to. I do believe that among the weaker teams keeping key players fit and performing is hugely important. A lot of clubs at the bottom (us included) have three or four "key" players the loss of whom would seriously weaken the team. For us it's Ruddy/Bassong/Snod/Rvw and probably Fer (although this has yet to be proven). Were we to lose JR and Seb to long term injuries then I could see us struggling to keep clean sheets and results would worsen. Similarly RvW and Snod get injured I could see the goals drying up. I think that at least two of the promoted clubs will be in the bottom three or four and then perm and one or two from WBA down in last season's table.
I think of the promoted clubs Hull have done the best business this summer - Davies, Graham, Figueroa are solid signings and Palacios and Bendtner would also be very good additions in my opinion - and with a manager who has been round the Premiership block a few times I think they might surprise a few people. They appear to be building a decent squad with plenty of experience so they are at least giving themselves a chance. Cardiff could have a chance as well, not sure about their signings so far but if they can get 20+ games out of an in form Craig Bellamy then they could also surprise a few people. I'd be very, very worried if I was a Palace fan though, they don't appear to be bringing in any real quality and obviously the loss of Zaha could be potentially massive. Despite what I said earlier I do actually agree with the Mark Hughes/Stoke fit, he did pretty well with Blackburn and Fulham that people tend to forget, and I can also see him doing ok with a deent Stoke squad now I think about it a bit more. He tends to do best at mid/smaller size clubs and struggles at financial giants such as Man City and Koo Pee Arr
Crystal Palace i reckon is nailed on for relegation, they were awful 2nd half of last season, truly average championship side. Hull City were a workman like side, as you would expect from a steve bruce side but as supers says, just don't have the quality up front or at the back to stay up. So that means its 1 place between i believe Cardiff, WBA, Stoke, Sunderland, Fulham, Aston Villa and yourselves. out of those 7, WBA and Fulham are the longshots. If i'm being honest i reckon you will just about have enough about you stay up, but not in lofty 11th position you had last year, probably 15th/16th is my guess. And if i had to go for a punt on the 3rd relegation spot i would say Stoke.
Good point. Last season we lost Ruddy to long term injury (as we all know only too well...) and look how that turned out for us! Bassong was also injured quite regularly and carrying an injury in the second half of the season - although this does not have the same effect as a long term injury, I seem to remember that there was some ridiculous stat like we never conceded more than one goal while Bassong was on the pitch (I think that cropped up in January, I can't imagine it's true now).
not saying your weaker Rob, just an honest assessment of where you will finish. I believe other clubs will have improved, for instance Newcastle won't have Europe to worry about, AV will also be better next season. I also believe that you have brought players in who will eventually improve you but might need time to bed in. Also i believe you got something like 16 points against the 'big teams' last season, that is a huge amount for a club like Norwich to achieve and one that i don't believe you can recreate, no disrespect intended. Just an honest assessment Rob.
Plus also rob i haven't said what points you will achieve, you might make the same amount of points but be in a worse position, is that how you say 'being weaker'.
Why are some people so reluctant to accept a few simple facts? Bookmaking is a business and a very profitable one based on the simple proposition that whatever the result they will end up with a profit of 15%. Obviously they make less if the favorite wins and more if an outsider wins but the general format remains the same. Bookies maintain odds based on the amount of money taken, insider imformation and the expert opinion of people employed to assess these things. Obviously sometimes they and their experts get it wrong but you only have to look at their profits to realise that most of the time they get it right. We are considered to be the 4th most likely team to go down based on the amount of money taken so far and the collective views of ALL experts employed by all of the big bookies as all of them on their own have come to exactly the same conclusion. Their odds are not based on an overall hatred of us or a desire to do us down - it is purely a business decision based on money, opinion and fact. They might well be wrong but perhaps - just perhaps - we have not progressed as far as many of you think we have. Personally I do not think their views are far out. There will be a more established club struggling - there usually is - Stoke? WBA? Fulham? - but apart from the 3 promoted Clubs I cannot think of any team I feel confident about finishing above. I don't think we will go down but equally I cannot see it is possible for us to finish as high as last year - the bookies odds seem very realistic to me.
It wasn't a criticism, I was just asking why you thought we'd be weaker overall, which you've now answered . I would argue that if we drop places in the table, by definition we would be weaker given that any assessment of strength is always relative to the teams around us. I can only see us going upwards, unless we get some major injuries, to be honest. We are more likely to improve than Villa (who were some way behind us) given the players we've brought in and just as likely to have a team that is now better "gelled". Take your point re. Newcastle, but they seem to be in turmoil internally and anything could happen there - so far nothing suggests they will be strong. I don't see any justification that we would go down the table from movements so far in this window, apart from maybe Southampton climbing above us. I can see Swansea suffering from Europe and West Ham being poorer. Of course, anything could happen, but that's how I see it right now.
Agree Munky but against that they got it right with Reading and with 3 or 4 games to go it seemed they might have got it right with us. As I said, they do not always get it right but on an overall basis they are usually fairly near the mark. Look on the bright side - last year we were 6/5 to go down but this year we are 3/1. Perhaps that is a sign of improvement.
