I must say I'm amazed at the entries (or rather lack of) for this Saturday's Irish Derby at the Curragh. This is a Group 1 race with a whopping €750,000 going to the winner and yet at the 5 day stage we have just two runners declared from outside Ireland, the Godolphin no-hoper Cap O'Rushes (a 95 rated handicapper) and the admirable Libertarian from the Burkes' yard. During a purple patch in the 1980s and 1990s British trainers were regular winners of the race with the likes of Shergar, Shahrastani, Kahyasi, Old Vic, Generous, Commander In Chief and the wonder filly Salsabil taking the prize back to Britain. Commander In Chief remains the last British winner of the race, way back in 1993, and since then the French have fared best of the foreign raiders with 4 winners including Montjeu and Hurricane Run. But the last decade has seen the Ballydoyle stranglehold tighten on the Irish Derby and Aiden O'Brien has won 9 of the last 12 runnings with such greats as Galileo and High Chaparral but also more recently with beasts who would not necessarily grace the pantheon of all-time greats - Soldier Of Fortune, Frozen Fire, Cape Blanco and Treasure Beach. O'Brien's dominance has not been mirrored in the Epsom Derby (although he has been very successful at Epsom too, with 4 of the last 13 Derby winners) so it begs the question as to whether the race has simply fallen out of favour amongst non-Irish owners, breeders and trainers? Recent Epsom Derby winners who were not trained by O'Brien have certainly tended to swerve the race - Pour Moi, Workforce, Sea The Stars, New Approach, Authorized, Sir Percy and Motivator all missed the Curragh race, either through injury, alternative engagements in the Eclipse or King George, or simply being put away for an Autumn campaign culminating in the Arc. The last Epsom Derby winner not trained by O'Brien to contest the Irish Derby was Sir Michael Stoute's North Light who was just touched off by Grey Swallow. When I was younger and horses like Nashwan and Generous were winning the Epsom Derby, the traditional path taken seemed to be Derby - Irish Derby - King George - Arc prep race - Arc but these days there seems to be a much more tempting path in taking in the various 10F Group 1 races such as the Eclipse, Juddmonte International, Champion Stakes (and its Irish equivalent), one assumes in an attempt to convince potential future breeders that the colt's pedigree is a lethal mixture of speed and stamina. So this Saturday's renewal is more than likely to be another Aiden O'Brien benefit with Epsom hero Ruler Of The World likely to go off a hot favourite to give his trainer an 8th consecutive victory in the race. But it's a crying shame that the opposition isn't really going to amount to much. The Irish Derby really ought to be about the best middle-distance 3YO horses from Ireland, Britain, France and even further afield, facing each other for the first time in order to give a real indication of the best of the classic generation, before the winner goes on to face older horses in the mid-summer showpiece that is the King George. The advent of the 10F Group 1 race as the "optimum path" for breeding purposes has robbed the racing world of competition in races which have been won by such stellar names over the years. Thoughts?
The record of English Derby winnners in the irish derby is very good and I fully expect Ruler Of The World to carry this trend on- so my money is on him - SIMPLES!
Given the lack of top quality opposition I think the shades of odds against offered by those bookie chappies, right now, is actually quite appealing re The Ruler of The World. As Oddy says Mr O’Brien has won the last seven renewals of this heat. In contrast though old boy Bolger’s record is at the other end of the spectrum. Since winning the race in 1992 he’s only had one animal finish better than 6th and that was last term when there were only 5 runners and his horse trotted past the old Judge in 3rd position.
Yes it is strange. It may have the money but the race seems to have lost some prestige, so that may be a reason. It also seems very close to Royal Ascot this year. But I look back and it's no more than the past. Often a horse that ran well at RA would run at the Curragh (for example Steel Pulse, English Prince and Shareef Dancer). I'm surprised Hillstar is not going for it. Maybe the breed really is weakening. But Battle of Marengo is still in the field. Maybe O'brien just has the hex on everyone. I do hope Libertarian wins.
I don't think you'll be too far off. O'Brien is looking for his 8th consecutive Irish Derby win. I think its due to a lack of competition m ore so than anything, although he has had some very fiine winners of it in the past.
Ballydoyle has farmed the Irish Derby in recent years and I suspect that is simply because of the lack of top middle distance colts in the other Irish yards. The fact that Aidan O’Brien has lots of candidates to choose from means that he can usually find something half decent to run, even in years when he has only managed to fill the places at Epsom. Notable that the two French-trained winners mentioned – Montjeu and Hurricane Run – were both owned by members of the Coolmore syndicate. Most British-trained Epsom Derby winners these days will skip the Derby double because, whilst the money is excellent, the race adds nothing to their stud value so they are more likely to opt for the Eclipse and/or taking on their elders in the King George. The close proximity of Royal Ascot this year is good grounds for not expecting to see the ‘Ascot Derby’ winner in the line up. They have tried moving the Irish Derby to an early evening slot to boost its appeal with the racing public but I think they will eventually find that they are fighting a losing battle. If they could come up with a huge Irish Derby – Champion Hurdle double bonus, they might get some of the natives interested.
Libertarian was unsuited to Epsom and came from a long way back. I think his battling qualities will put him in good stead to reverse the Epsom form. I understand he has a pacemaker this time so the stiff 12f should suit him more than his Epsom conqueror whose dam is by a miler.
Now that the 2013 Irish Derby has been and gone, there must be a few owners wondering why their horse did not go to the start. Clearly the Epsom form is as suspect as some thought on the day. Unless the French have a top middle distance three year old hidden somewhere, we should start looking for an older horse to win the Arc.
On the other hand, if the going is fast on Arc Day, a horse that can clock 12f in over 4 secs fast and whose grandsire won two Longchamp 12f races (inc the Arc) in exceptionally fast time (over 4 secs fast) would have to be put in with a chance. I know the times aren't everything but it can sort out the men from the boys.
It is very unlikely to be “fast” on Arc Day because of the watering policy at the track. It is also unlikely that there will be a very strong pace as pacemakers (i.e. low rated horses with no Group race wins) only have a chance of lining up if there are less than twenty declarations. The BHA handicapper rated this year’s Epsom Derby as one of the poorest in recent years. Ruler Of The World only attained a rating of 120. The fact that the only Epsom runner to show at The Curragh was the third (the current St Leger favourite) attests to this year’s Derby not being a great one. Whether the Irish Derby winner is good remains to be seen. If Aidan O’Brien can get Kingsbarns onto the track and he is just good, he may be the top middle distance three year old by default. Just like Camelot.
For all the money thrown at breeding thoroughbreds it seems astonishing that such relatively mediocre beasts are mopping up Derbys. What's going wrong?
The breed is weakening. A horse can't run its race 4 weeks after the Derby? 40 years ago they used to say Ascot was too close to Epsom, now it's the Curragh.
