Ascot 3.05 Hillstar 10/1 e/w This 8 runner race rather revolves around odds on favourite Battle of Marengo. He's the most likely winner but I think the value is to be found with Hillstar. This horse is highly regarded by his experienced handler. He did a piece of work a few weeks ago which catapulted him into contention to be the yards main Derby hope and it's somewhat baffling that he hasn't been able to score on the track. That said Stoutey is the master of bringing one along slowly and, with the step up in trip guaranteed to suit, I think Hillstar is a shoe-in for a place and the most likely to trouble the favourite if indeed he is to be troubled at all tomorrow.
I'm on Joyeuse 7/2 as well in the opener and I'm very confident. Looked all class when winning her debut impressively and should have learned loads. Definitely looks to have a lot of the class of her half brother.
Can't be having Battle of Marengo at all tomorrow. He had a hard enough race in the Derby, and he didn't appear to stay the trip, besides which horses turning up in this race after Epsom have a pretty poor record. If the eight go to post I'll be looking for some each way value as he's framing the market. Or I may just lay the favourite at oddson. I've had the Coronation earmarked for my bet of the week, on Just the Judge, who I think will continue to improve as the season progresses. The stable clearly weren't that upset by defeat at Newmarket as they knew there was better to come, which she duly proved at the Curragh. Hopefully she'll come on again for that run, though of course one has to be a little wary of fillies.
Going for a "not a dry eye in house" bet tomorrow - Joyeuse and Disclaimer win singles and a double and pass the hankies all round.
Bookies benefit card tomorrow 1st race 2 year olds 2nd race Ok value here (see Hillstar e/w) 3rd race First 3 home from the first 5 or 6 in the betting but look short enough and hard to split 4th race ****e handicap with 2 potential jokers in Forgotten Voice (for Mr Henderson) and Ocean War 5th race silly 2 mile race where 3/4 of the field haven't run beyond 12f and we're supposed to fecking work out which one will win over 2 miles ffs. 6th race....game on
Going for the one bet approach again tomorrow and it's Albasharah put her up last time and she won ultra impressively. I think she could well outclass these on the way to much better things
Evening chaps, posting in here (where it will be seen!) to say what a wonderful day it was at Ascot. Not a dry eye in the house after RIPOSTE's win, incredibly emotional. I also wanted to apologise for some severe after timing, but we had a lift down to Ascot with someone in the know who said NO SAY NEVER would definitely win. I tried very hard to get on here to post the info, but Ascot had locked down the bleedin' WIFI! I'm also hoping for JOYEUSE to win, and by all accounts she should.
I have been looking at the 650 goodwood one horse that caught my eye has had a 100 day lay off (admittedly says leave me alone) has been poor on its last seven or 8 outings (also says leave me alone)but at 18/1it holds good value if it can bring previous turf run form back I'm hoping it wont need the run and at 7years old it should know the game by now I'm praying D E Egan will just let the well weighted SIR GEOFFREY go as he may be able to stamp his authority from the front and his time at this distance with more weight is a statement on its own obviously I'm on ew but please reread before backing anyless than 16s and I personally wouldn't risk good luck all
Apparently the Wifi went down yday and the day before- all the press were fuming! lol which is probably why they locked it down!
I don't for one second believe Hillstar was ever intended as a serious Derby horse but I do think he's an each way nibble tomorrow at 10/1. Wonderfully was impressive on debut and 10/1 is another little each way. The Coronation Stakes is the race of the week. Just The Judge to win. Big Break to chase her home but when Big Break gets soft she'll hammer the Classic fillies. Shamal Nibras to run a belter as well but be foiled by the draw.
Normally I hate weather forecasters because they are more inaccurate than us punters; however, with the rain not arriving, the non-runners saved me money on Ladies Day. Winsili was too short with the absentees and victory went to Riposte in the owner’s first colours for Lady Cecil. Appropriate... So Day four starts with a small field of two year olds (I know, that line is getting a bit worn now) in the Albany. Looking at the card, nine of them are unbeaten so something has to give but this really looks like another race just to watch or keep stakes small. It would be fantastic if Joyeuse could win for Lady Cecil as it was clearly fancied when it won on debut at odds on. Or will it be Sandiva for Richard Fahey and Frankie Dettori? She has arguably the best form with her listed win but the runner-up Heart Focus re-opposes. Amazingly there are only two Hannon runners and Richard Hughes has chosen easy Windsor winner Midnite Angel, who has to be respected although that was five furlongs. The bottom two on the card, Wedding Ring and Wonderfully, were both narrow winners on their sole racecourse visits and the market will surely indicate any confidence in the Godolphin and Ballydoyle representatives. The two best bred here are Joyeuse and Wonderfully so I would like to see either of them in the winner’s enclosure. The “Ascot Derby” gives the punters a real chance to find a winner, although there is not a previous twelve furlong winner in the line-up. The form pick is Derby fourth Battle Of Marengo, tinged with the concern that he may have had a hard race and it was only twenty days ago. The others all appear to be on recovery missions after disappointments: Greatwood flopped in the Dante, Havana Beat did not settle when slammed in the Chester Vase by the subsequent Derby hero, Contributer had a rear-end view of Magician in the Dee Stakes; and Godolphin’s Tha’ir was pipped in a ten furlong listed race last time. If you are prepared to back odds on is the O’Brien horse a banker you can rely upon? The Coronation Stakes sees a rematch of the first two in the 1000 Guineas, the runner-up Just The Judge having subsequently impressed in the Irish version. Sky Lantern has not been seen since Newmarket but neither filly has been helped by high draws in an unusually large field. The big negative for the grey is her stable drawing a blank so far from lots of good chances. An easy way to cut down the numbers might be to eliminate those vanquished in the two Classics, but I would not totally rule out Dermot Weld’s impeccably bred Big Break. A couple of the runners have no Classic credentials and Viztoria is no forlorn hope of giving Eddie Lynam a second winner this week; whilst unbeaten listed winner Pavlosk is taking a big hike in class. It is hard to fancy Siyenica dropping back in trip or fellow French raider Kenhope, beaten in a Group 2 on Prix Du Jockey Club day at Chantilly. This is a strange choice for a seasonal debut for Purr Along, well beaten in the Marcel Boussac last October. If Just The Judge wins, you will know that I did not have a penny on. The Wolferton handicap may well contain a rapidly improving horse that will go on to better things like last year. The unbeaten Albasharah should go off favourite on the strength of her easy win last time but this is a lot more competitive than that event. Sheikhzayedroad will find the course a bit different to Epsom last time and has risen up the weights. Ottoman Empire is almost impossible to assess having won in Dubai in February and not run since. One to avoid. Last year’s Queen's Vase winner won this year’s Gold Cup. If we could write another piece of history, we would like to see the Queen’s Vase In Memory Of Sir Henry Cecil won by Disclaimer. His principal opponent appears to be Leading Light with a caveat about his stamina. Most of the remainder look like handicappers on the upgrade except the maiden winners Baihas, Da Do Run Run, Federal Blue and Nearly Caught, who could be anything. If you are not skint by the last, the Buckingham Palace handicap affords you the opportunity to make sure that your bookie has petrol money for his Mercedes or Bentley. It is either the Royal Hunt Cup shortened or the Wokingham lengthened and you have just as little chance. There are six places on offer with one well-known bookie. No bet.
5.35 Ascot Democretes 16/1 & Enrol 7/1 Democretes I think this gelding might well have been laid out for the race. I won't drag you through all of his runs so we'll start at the start of this season. However I will briefly touch upon his early races which include holding off Swiss Spirit on that one's debut and a few very respectable runs behind horses who simply haven't been given a chance to frank the form. Needless to say there is plenty to take heart from in his 3yo form, a close up 3rd just one place behind a very well handicapped Mince perhaps the pick amongst one or two very tender rides. Another reason for starting this write up at the start of this year is that this colt was gelded over the winter. He re-appeared in March over 6f at Kempton. Flying home late he gave the impression of a horse crying out for further as he finished fastest of all in 5th place. I think he'd have won his next start, a hot handicap at Winsor, over a increasingly inadequate looking 6f but for having to be switched late on and was beaten a nose and a neck. The 4th from that race has subsquently gone in whilst the 2nd, Poole Harbour continues to make the frame despite a 7lb rise. The short-head winner that day, Nocturn, has gone in off of 12lb higher so the form looks strong. Next run was over 7f, which undoubtedly suits better, and I think Democretes could have won with a different ride from Pat Dobbs, who was partnering Democretes on a racecourse for the first time. He seemed to be restrained whilst cruising, taken into a typical Goodwood pocket and then got moving too late but nabbed 2nd close home. His latest run, at Ascot but back down to 6f, only further re-iterates the need for this guy to be raced over further as he raced handy but only really hit full stride late on ending up beaten a neck into 2nd. Richard Hughes rides this bottom weight tomorrow and if the first time blinkers have the desired effect this fella could prove well ahead of his mark and has to be worth a play at 16/1. Having watched this guy I think he's a bit of a difficult ride and there's no doubt in my mind that he's a different animal with Hughesie on board. In fact in 9 races Hughes has made the placings at least on this charge in 8 of those rides despite some hands and heels attempts and the only time he failed to be involved at the finish being the only step up to 8f in last year's Britannia. Of 6 rides without Hughesie on top Democretes has placed just the once, the aforementioned Goodwood race where he finished 2nd under Pat Dobbs. He looks like a horse who's keen to have a look around and one that can carry his head awkwardly at times and the cynic in me questions whether saving the blinkers for tomorrow has been the plan for sometime. All considered I think Democretes could end up going very close. I will also be having a saver on the Cheveley Park filly Enrol. She made a ridiculous amount of ground up on her last run late on after not handling Newmarket at all. She's clearly well handicapped, step up in trip simply has to suit and at 7/1 she's bigger than I expected and bigger than I expect she will be at off time tomorrow. She looks primed for a huge run.
Already mentioned it on another thread but I highly recommend taking the 25/1 available about Maarek for the Diamond Jubilee Stakes with Skybet NRNB for the weekend. Rain is forecast and if it comes up soft he is going to have an enormous chance in what looks a very weak race given that its a Grade 1 and he won't run unless there is some juice in the ground. Although disappointing when a comprehensively beaten 2nd at the weekend, this doesn't concern me in the slightest as he finished 2nd behind Katla (a horse who he is much better than) 6 days before his Group 2 success last year - the same number of days since his recent outing come Saturday. He'll go off a single figure on the day if it comes up soft/heavy and if it does I think he has got an absolutely massive chance of winning.
