May throw a couple more up after looking into the cards in more detail but I don't think anyone who is familiar with me is surprised by these two horse from the Ismail Mohammed stable. 4.25 Ascot Educate 16/1 6.10 Kempton Mubtadi 9/2
3.05 Duntle 11/4 Love this filly, ive followed her most of her career and she never lets me down, she is a Group 1 winner without a penalty in here as she was unfairly disqualified from the Matron last season having clearly been the best horse in the race. She had a nice comeback run and looks to have been targeted at this race, she likes the track and she is the one they all have to beat if she runs her race. 3.45 Maxios 11/2 NAP Very sweet on this horse tomorrow, he has developed into a serious Group 1 horse this season and this is his trip, he showed great speed and heart to win last time when things didnt quite go his way, I think he will take a lot of beating and 11/2 is a great price. Ive liked Al Kazeem since he won that good handicap at Newbury and I thought he could develop into an Arc horse, he is going the right way about it but im not sure this race will suit him and hes short enough now. When you actually look into Camelots form its not that strong and I hope Al Kazeem confirms the form with him but I expect the french horse to be too strong for both. Other two I like to a much lesser extent are Garswood 5/1 and Beldale Memory 9/2 in races that look typical Ascot big field lotteries.
Also give chances to Mutin in the Jersey and the top weight, Zurigha, in the Sandringham. 9/1 and 12/1.
Nass - I've backed Camelot Also did a few other small ones. 2-30 Ajraam (ew); 305 Chigun (win - how lovely would it be if one of his won this week?) 4-25 Navajo Chief 5-00 Baytown kestrel Good luck all
Il be lumping on Al Kazeem tomorrow, at 5/2 which looks a huge price. Not sure why Camelot is so close to him in the market, after he was shown a clean pair of heels by him last time, in Camelots own back yard. Don't see any reason why that form should be reversed. The others don't really seem up to this level. The Fugue is clearly a good fillie, but she didnt exactly dominate last season despite winning a G1. I think it takes an exceptional fillie to mix it with the colts, and I don't think the Fugues exceptional. Had Snow Fairy shown up, then I'd of given her a chance, but The Fugue has no chance. So it's Al Kazeem for me
Two possible reasons that I can see Shergar, one that Camelot may not have been quite as ready for the race as Al Kazeem although both horses where having just their second start back from lay offs so I wouldnt bank on the form being reversed on the basis of that alone, the other reason in my opinion is the track. I was pretty keen on Al Kazeem for this race but the more I look at him I just wonder does he have the tactical speed for this race, I think he likes the long straights like Newbury, Newmarket and York, and I dont think the sharp bend into a shortish straight will suit him. Also he is still to prove himself at Group 1 level for real, that race at the Curragh was a nothing race, Camelot and Al Kazeem were allowed to lob along at their own speed behind two pacemakers and move up to challenge when they wanted and in his previous race he was never out of second gear either against inferior animals. I suspect this will be a completely different test tomorrow and one that Camelot may be more suited to of the two, I can see Al Kazeem being taken out of his comfort zone during the race and maybe struggling to hold a position then running on too late in the straight. So it wouldnt at all surprise me if Camelot reversed the form but that said, I still think that form is short of the top drawer and in Maxios you have a horse who has proven himself in serious Group 1 fields this season, with all the right attributes to be successful round here, tactical speed, acceleration and heart. I dont think hes Manduro good, but Camelot is no Dylan Thomas either.
If you held a gun to my head I'd plump for Camelot as well but I'm still weighing up this race from a place angle. I think there's value in this race away from the top 2.
Can't help thinking Woodland Aria Looks a decent bet in the Sandringham tomorrow - she looked a massive danger 2 out in the Musidora but for me didn't quite get home over 10F. Looked much happier over 7F last time out and was cleverly ridden to win with the minimum of fuss by a small margin - clearly aimed at getting a nice mark for this and 93 does not look over onerous. Also like last year's Sandringham winner Duntle in the Windsor Forest and Camelot in the Prince Of Wales (this is clearly his early season target, forget his last run). Chuck in Fire Blaze in the Queen Mary (who was hopefully clean when landing a hot Newmarket maiden) for a nice Lucky 15.
AOB won't thank me for saying this, but id question wether Camelot has tactical speed? He looks slow to me. I know he's a guineas winner, but that has worked out as one of the worst renewals in recent memory, on soft ground. Having said that Ascot is hardly as sharp a track as your suggesting. You make out like its some sort of daft American track
I'm going to stick a 2nd one up in the Jersey, Music Master at 16/1. My first selection has been gambled 7s from 9s.....Pricewise??
I too like Duntle in the Cambridge 16.25- Stirring Ballard 8/1 Richard Hughes on board a Balding horse very unusual! She completed a 4 timer last season and has been in the frame for all 4 starts this time out the last two in listed company- she seems to improve for each run and this is a step down and 8/1 is a decent e/w price
After saying id only have one bet today on DA and subsequently throwing money away on Animal Kingdom and Shea Shea i am definitely only having one bet tomorrow! Duntle for me too. Id lean towards Camelot in the Prince of Wales but its a definite no bet race from me.
I like the look of Stirring Ballard too Wooly. I also like Fury in that race ... No bets for me though as working and wont see the action live.
Now that I am familiar with Channel 4’s chosen format, I can make sure that I avoid that dozy double-barrelled mare in the fuchsia dress by just watching ‘Time Team’ on More 4 and flicking to Channel 4 ten minutes before the off for the race build up and the actual race then go channel-hopping again once they stop talking racing.
Beldale Memory and Woodland Aria in the last 2, singles and double. Plus Educate, Maxios and Duntle courtesy of the forums finest.
