2.00 Doncaster Liviaâs Dream 14/1 Liviaâs Dream races here off a mark of 76 which is 5lb below her rating on the AW but I think Ed Walkerâs 4 year old is just as good if not better on turf and I think sheâs got a superb chance of landing this on her seasonal reappearance. Ed Walkerâs filly had a largely progressive season last year winning twice including on her reappearance and I certainly donât think her improvement has stopped yet. Liviaâs Dream made a winning handicap debut off a mark of 68 at Windsor on her first start as a 3 year old when landing a bit of a touch in the process last June under a fine ride by William Buick but disappointed on her next start on unsuitable soft ground. She then landed another gambled off a mark of 72 upped to 12f on the AW in a race that has worked out well with the 3rd home winning his next 3 starts. After again disappointing on soft ground, she was a bit out of her depth in a Listed race at Lingfield (although not totally outclassed) before she ran an absolute blinder when going down by a neck at Kempton back in November off a mark of 79. Under Graham Lee, she travelled like a dream that day and was going so well that she probably hit the front too soon which looked her undoing in the end. She disappointed on her final start when favourite but was put away for the winter after that and her trainer has given favourable reports on his website recently. Her turf mark of 76 is 5lb below her mark on the all weather but I think two runs on unsuitably soft ground have contributed to that assessment and judged on her win at Windsor and Maiden form as a 2 year old I think she handles turf as good if not better than the AW and she clearly looks feasibly treated. Moreover, I think this progressive filly has more improvement left in her and Iâm very confident that sheâs well capable of winning off her current mark on a going day. Apparently in great form at home, Liviaâs Dream has actually missed two engagements already this year with soft ground not suiting but I think itâs well worth mentioning that the two jockeys booked were William Buick and Richard Hughes which I think says an awful lot about her perceived chance by the yard. With those two on duty at Epsom, Tom McLaughlin takes the ride on this filly who clearly goes very well fresh and I think a massive run is on the card. Iâm very wary about Keith Reveleyâs Swinging Sultan who ran out an easy winner on handicap debut and heâs sure to be tough to beat with a 7lb rise seeming lenient (well worth a saver and RFC) but I think Liviaâs Dream looks overpriced and I think sheâs going to run a very big race. I also put up 3.30 Musselburgh Esteaming 11/2 when winning the last day and think he has a superb chance of following up. Write up to follow.
3.45 Doncaster Lutine Bell 20/1 I don’t think any selection I’ve ever made will give me as much joy as this one if Lutine Bell can land this and I don’t think there is a horse in training who deserves a win as much as this 6 year old. His last win came way back in November 2010 on his stable debut for Mike Murphy and on so many occasions since then he has ran some absolute blinders without getting his head in front. The handicapper has given him a massive chance now dropping him 6lb in 2 runs this year to a mark of 82 and I think it is very interesting that blinkers, which were a mainstay during at the start of his career for Mike Murphy, are reapplied for the first time since July 2011. Despite not winning in an absolute age, there is absolutely nothing wrong with this notoriously slow starter’s attitude but his hold up style makes him very hard to win with. He bumped into the incredibly well handicapped Sirius Prospect off a mark of 94 over this C+D back in 2011 with that rival winning off 88 before winning his next 3 starts and he’s been unfortunate on a number of occasions to bump into good things. Looking closer to now, he ran many fine races in defeat last season and he again bumped into a very good horse over this track and trip last August off a mark of 87. Under John Fahy, Lutine Bell surged down the near side with a flying run but unfortunately for him the unexposed and talented Go Dutch made a race winning run on the other side of the track to score by 3/4L but the pair were 3.5L clear of rest of the field. He followed that up with a fine 3rd at Kempton behind stablemate Chapter And Verse off a mark of 92 9 days later before running midfield on his final two starts last year. He’s had two runs so far this year with his seasonal debut coming in a race not run to suit whilst his latest effort saw him tackle unsuitably heavy ground but as a result of those efforts he’s fallen back to a mark of 82 which is the lowest he’s been in the handicap since his last win and hopefully the reapplied blinkers can make the difference to his chances tomorrow. Lutine Bell seems to go extremely well over the straight course at Doncaster with two fine runs over 6f in addition to his two aforementioned 2nds over this C+D and if no rain comes he should have his ideal ground. Martin Dwyer takes the ride having been on board once before back in 2011 and seemed to get on well with him that day when finishing a staying on 4th and he is a fine jockey to have at towards the bottom of the weights. Drawn in stall 3, I’d expect the field to race down the centre of the track but there is a lot of pace drawn low which will suit Lutine Bell if they break into two groups. If getting luck in running, I think Lutine Bell has a massive, massive chance of winning this and I will have never been as happy to see a horse win if Lutine Bell can gain what would be a richly deserved and elusive success.
Exciting Derby. Any one of 7 seem capable of winning. As I don't have a strong fancy I'm taking the 16/1 about Mars for a small each way. Highly regarded as a 2 year old but only one run at Dundalk didn't give him the chance to show what he's about. The 3 year old appearance was very promising. Hughes on board tomorrow and did a great job today on a 2nd string. I can't see anything other than improvement out of this chap over his next 2 or three runs. He smacks of untapped potential to me. At a fairly big price I think he'll be there or thereabouts.
CAPTAIN DUNNE 7-1 3.15 Epsom loves the full on blistering burn of the dash. Faded out of it in the closing stages last year but a whopping 10lbs lower tomorrow makes him a huge punt in my book. I frankly believe that he is handicapped to win this by three to four lengths. He won it two years ago and has patently been lined up for this. I will be gobsmacked if he doesnt win!
Good enough for me. FAIR VALUE looks another one I like in that race, 2 runs on this track with a win and a 2nd. Withdrew on last 3 entries because the ground wasnt fast enough, if it is this time could go very close but Hayley Turner puts me off, might do a small rfc.
Sleeper King 6/1 2.20 Musselburgh - This Kevin Ryan trained horse was heavily backed on his debut at York and looked like the winner over a furlong out before tiring out of it a little eventually finishing a close up 4th to the impressive Richard Fahey winner Parbold who is held in high regard. The form of that race is still up In the air but the fact Kevin Ryan opts to go for this conditions race and the fact he was heavily punted on debut tells me they expect good things of the horse. If learning from his debut and making natural progression I fully expect Sleeper King to put in a bold show and hopefully take this contest tomorrow, Philip Makin will be on board again and I thought he did well introducing him at York where conditions were also probably against the horse, he'll know more today and with a bit of luck can land the prize. Galileo Rock 25/1 e/w 4:00 Epsom - To be honest I think Dawn Approach may well go and win but I will not be getting involved at the price and will be happy to watch him instead so I have opted to go for an each way alternative in Galileo Rock who really has impressed me since last year. He was ultra impressive winning his debut at Leopardstown coming from 20 lengths off to win easily by over 7l over the mile that day, he didn't perform as well nto at Newmarket over the straight mile getting well beat into 5th in a race won by Trading Leather. His last start reignited my belief that he may well have all the ability I thought he had on debut when he stepped up to 10 furlongs at Sandown where he ran into 3rd closing all the time on winner Sugar Boy and Eye Of the Storm in a race he would have won easily with another furlong. Tomorrow he steps up again and I am hopeful that this can start to bring about even more improvement which will be needed to land any blows in this field, his trainer is hopeful the track and trip should see Galileo Rock in an even better light and as an each way shout I think he can run a big race at a nice price.
Epsom 4.00pm The Derby - Mars . I cant believe he is 16/1 (Best Odds Guaranteed) with Stan James (and a few others) so I have taken that price. Bet just placed. I have a feeling this horse is gonna improve greatly for the step up in trip and may well be suited by the course. Seems to have always had a reputation and as we have seen today its quite possible O'Brien junior has got it worng - who i reckon has been swayed to Battle of Marengo simply due to winning his 3 races with him up top including the derby trial. Richard Hughes riding Mars and confidence running high after today are plus points and the ground drying out all the time too! Was at the beach today on the sunny south west coast and come derby time tomorrow the ground is gonna be good which will suit Mars 's requirements. Not convinced Dawn Approach will stay - if he does he wins but as Im not convinced the bet is for Mars
saw a write up from ROTO on this horse 2 yr ago at the last meet at york, hampered at the start and stalls and was well behind but came like a train, no place but watched since back time ????? hope so im on xx
saw a write up from ROTO on this horse 2 yr ago at the last meet at york, hampered at the start and stalls and was well behind but came like a train, no place but watched since back time ????? hope so im on xx
pay back time i ment im pissed thats why duplicate post dont blame ron !!!!! xx sleep well stay frosty
2 for me in the Derby 2moro a decent wager on Ruler of the world ew and a smaller stake on the Libertarion ew also at 8/1 and 14/1. Would be hopeful of some rain for the former.
The Derby. All about DA's stamina for most people. Some 6/4 about..do people think he's 50/50 to stay?..in that case his price is value...is he good enough to stay against inferior opponents regardless of a slight stamina deficit?..again the price is value. He is one of the most exposed runners in the field having had 7 runs starting in March last year..less than 48 hours after the Brocklesby! That is the real fascinating point for me.He will buck the trend of a back end Racing Post winner,Autumn once raced maiden winner at HQ or Leopardstown. I remember Generous Debuting in May and winning the Derby but DA has such an unusual profile for this race.If he runs to his rating he should win,the rest will have to improve and they will.It is normal for the Epsom winner to present a lifetime best.The form of all 3-y-o's at this time of year is transient,never static. He is so similar to Camelot last year,unbeaten Guineas and G1 winning 2-y-o..his form is just as shakey on the book but everyone seems to think he is classier. Is the opposition strong?..not from Ireland and the UK..his main opponent,Kingsbarns,isn't a player and I haven't heard a peep from B'doyle about their lot..thye are moderate. I think the opposition comes from Germany and France and their form is a lucky bag guess. I'd love to see DA win...he has to against this lot tbh and stamina,imo,is the only thing that can stop him. What % chance do we see him staying..? do we really need a bet in this. I started following the turf at 10 and didn't have sneaky bets until I was 16 so not punting never dulls my entertainment/fascination,be it a seller at Plumpton or a Classic. May the best horse win..may the best horse stay.
I guess most folks around here are still licking their wounds because we did not pick Ralph Beckettâs second string to complete the hat-trick of 20/1 shots winning the Oaks. I saw the Oaks winner at Newmarket on May the fifth but an hour after I thought I saw it. It will not take the Worldâs greatest tipster to offer up St Nicholas Abbey to complete a hat-trick in the Coronation Cup but most people thought Camelot was a certainty last week. In the feature race at Epsom, I am sticking to my opinion that the favourite will not stay so if Dawn Approach passes the post first I have every expectation of being the first doubter named as I espoused that opinion initially on May the fifth on the Derby thread. I will be fascinated to see how Kevin Manning chooses to ride him â he needs to be in the first four at Tattenham Corner expecting him to get home. Battle Of Marengo has taken the preferred Ballydoyle route to Surrey and, whilst he has not exactly sparked delirium with his performances, has done nothing wrong and cannot be discounted. Ocovango appears to demand respect largely because he comes from the Andre Fabre stable; however his form is as unspectacular as Joseph OâBrienâs mount. His jockey will be under orders not to do a Barzalona! It is impossible to say whether German raider Chopin is good enough and his position in the market probably owes more to the exploits of Danedream in the last two seasons than his actual racecourse form. Chester victor Ruler Of The World probably did not do very much that day and history is not on his side but I suspect that he is the best prospect of Irish victory in terms of potential for improvement. Dante was the last northern trained winner of the Blue Riband but the victor in this yearâs renewal of the race named in his honour, Libertarian, really does not look up to the task on any assessment of that form. Mars appears to be in the line-up purely on the grounds of reputation as he lacks experience and did not show sufficient behind the favourite at Newmarket to merit serious consideration. This is an easy âno betâ after Friday but if given a free bet it would be Ruler Of The World.
Cheekpieced bearing unraced 2-y-o QM?..why not I suppose..if the DA doesn't last anything is possible. One thing is sure,Bolger has put O'Brien to bed in the hype stakes with his platitudes.."still awesome".."amazing".."perfect colt" Dodt shot two hole in ones in the Nordea Masters today....anyone remember that happening in a ranking event?
3.30 Musselburgh Esteaming 11/2 I put up David Barron's son of Derby winning Sir Percy Esteaming on his last start when he shed Maiden tag in extremely impressive fashion at York's Dante meeting a couple of weeks ago and I think a 6lb rise is more than fair as he relished the step up to 12f for the first time. Formerly with Mick Channon, Esteaming was a little frustrating as he finished runner up on 3 of his 5 starts for his former trainer but a considerable amount of improvement was felt to be made from him as he was picked up for 36,000 Guineas at Doncaster's November sale last year as he was sent to David Barron. Esteaming made his handicap debut for Barron off a mark of 74 at Beverley over 10f in April where he caught the eye as he blocked at a crucial time before making inroads in the final furlong to be beaten about 6L but and he was put in an even more eye catching display at Pontefract last month on his 2nd start for Barron. Dropped 2lb to a mark 72 from his seasonal reappearance, Esteaming looked full of running at the finish as he blocked off twice at crucial stages on his last run as he met trouble under today's pilot Philp Makin as he had to settle for a 4L beaten 5th over the 1m2f trip. He proved those two eye catching display very much had substance when winning extremely impressive in a competitive handicap at the Dante meeting a couple of weeks ago off 72 by 1.25L in soft ground when relishing the step up to 1m4f. Held up in the rear of the field, Esteaming was still towards the back when swinging into the home straight but he made very smooth progress on the outside of the field under Philip Makin. Inside the final two furlongs, Makin found himself in front still travelling extremely well and he had no choice to press on as he quickened in good style. Despite hanging violently left, he was still much too good for his rivals and he scored in good fashion. The 5th home Chocala has already gone on to score impressively off the same mark (probably came on for the run) to boost the form and I think that race is going to work out extremely well in time. Although he definitely handles a quick surface, Esteaming perhaps was suited by the soft ground at York which puts a bit of doubt into your mind but I think a 6lb rise for that success is very lenient and I have no doubt that Esteaming is a better horse than his mark of 78. Another slight concern is that he hung left which will be against him on this right handed track but Makin knows about this and will be sure to prevent this if possible. This valuable contest has attracted a very decent field which is no surprise and quite a few horses rate as significant dangers but I definitely believe Esteaming is far enough ahead of the handicapper to deal with these rivals. There seems to be a substantial amount of pace in the race which looks ideal for this strong travelling hold up horse and the faster they go the better for him. David Barron continues in fine form and I think its going to take an extremely well handicapped horse to defy Esteaming today. 4.45 Doncaster Sea Meets Sky 3/1 Sir Henry Cecil doesn't have an awful lot of debutant winners and those that do are generally well above average and I very much think the same can be said about this well bred 3 year old filly. Sea Meets Sky was successful on her only career start to date at Ascot over 10f when she came from another Parish when the penny dropped late on to get up and score by a comfortable neck in the end in what was a very taking debut for which she should have absolutely learnt loads. That form has strong substance with the 3rd and the 4th winning subsequently. After watching that race, I immediately thought she'd win the Ribblesdale and I firmly believe she'll go on to win this event on route to that race in 3 weeks time. This looks a competitive race pitched in against some talented looking boys but I think its going to take a very good horse to prevent Sea Meets Sky from success. 6.40 Newcastle Relentless Harry 4/1 Purely given the size of the field, it may well pay to go each way about George Baker's charge but I think he's going to take a substantial amount of beating in this contest. I remember watching Baker's 'Trainer File' with Racing UK from 2011 a few months ago where he stated that he hoped the then 2 year old could be as good as stablemate Belgian Bill (rated 101) and although he hasn't quite hit those heights yet this 4 year old has had a lot of niggling problems in his career and he took a massive step in the right direction with an extremely impressive victory 8 days ago off a mark of 66 . On what was his 9th career start and 2nd run back from a break, Relentless Harry was anchored at the rear of the field by today's pilot Pat Cosgrave over 7f at Yarmouth and he made incredibly smooth progress to sit just off the lead on the bit. Cosgrave asked his mount to quicken inside the final furlong as he shot to the lead to score by a comfortable 2.75L to land a gamble in the process. I think the handicapper has been very lenient in only putting him up 7lb to a mark of 73 and if in the same mood as he was just over a week ago I don't see anything living with him in this Class 5 contest.
