Well summer is here, the derby is here, the weather is still crap! lol A couple of selections tomorrow; 13.35- Thistle Bird- 9/2 Really big fan of this horse! Highest rated in the field and was improved greatly last year just blasting her rivals away, she was a triple Listed winner last year and was beaten by only a neck by a very good horse on his day in Premio Loco in a Goodwood Group 2 in August. She does have some tough rivals, starscope being one of them but she is no way near he G1 form here. My selection will justkeep improving again this year, will definately win a group 2 and may even fight for honours in a G1 this year and with jockey and trainer buzzing on form at the moment she will take all the beating. 14.45- Sri Putra- 5/1 Easily the classiest horse in the field, has run in numerous G1's altho didnt stand much chance coming up against the likes of frankel and Nathaniel, He came storming back in form when winning a strong G2 at york last year,but interestingly escapes a penalty for that win so is pound lower than that win last year. This is more his level and still has bit of quirkiness in him at the age of 7, enough to see him one more big prize. 16.00- Secret Gesture 9/4- NAP Dont need to say to much but she will win tomorrow! The way she sped and powered up at the trials at lingfield suggests she is improving all the time and will win
I see he's out tomorrow Bob, see what stick say's but i imagine he needs to drop a bit before he gets competitive again.
Small ew bet on boomshackerlacker in the 445 10/1 at mo cant see it staying at that though tough little race pro, s and con, s for a few of them but the odds are in favour of this for the ew and the ground conditions may help good luck all
2 against the field for me in the oaks. the Lark and Roz 18/1 and 66/1 respectively. 1000 guineas form has already proved strong and this longer distance will hopefully help Roz' case although her stablemate Moth clearly looks a big danger judged on the same race
Epsom Oaks: MADAME DEFARGE 25/1 & THE LARK 18/1 [video]http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/05-05-2013/newmarket/result/558675/tweenhills-pretty-polly-stakes-fillies-39-listed/video[/video] [video]http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/17-05-2013/newbury/result/560837/swettenham-stud-fillies-trial-stakes-listed/video[/video] It's a really good Oaks here. The favourite, Secret Gesture, looked very impressive at Lingfield and will have no problem with conditions having sluiced up in the rain that day. However, was it the strongest of Oaks trials? Either way, she was incredibly convinving and obviously goes here with a good chance. With that said, Ralph Beckett appears to also rate his second string quite highly, and in Madame Defarge, I think you have yourself a very unlucky loser at Newmarket last time out. The straight 10 furlongs didn't really suit and in a 5 runner race, there was never quite the pace and cover available for Jamie Spencer (who rides The Lark today instead) to really pounce. Despite this however, Madame Defarge was nudged into contention from the back and went for a daring run up the inside whilst the front two were more in the centre. However, Spencer found no room at the inn, having to switch off the rail and ending up 2L away in 3rd. Two things struck me here. Firstly, this filly is a tank. Her size is quite unbelievable. Secondly, it seems absolutely clear that she would appreciate further. She is a big galloping filly and needed a better pace to go at. I cannot see them going a crawl tomorrow. The ground might have fallen right for this one as well. Motivators record as a stallion appears quite solid on soft ground, looking on first glance. If anything else has stamina doubts, this filly can test them. I'd be very interested in seeing this one take a fairly prominent position and go for home here. Tom Queally has a difficult job from the outside draw, but we will see. Michael Bell trained the sire for his Derby win and about this filly, he commented in April that "Madame Defarge looks a very nice filly, and The Lark is also progressing well". She should really improve for her reappearance and to me looks a very interesting runner if the cards drop right and we get a good pace on. The Lark is a tricky one. I think this horse will either be well beaten or win the Oaks. I'm not sure whether I've read this one properly or not. To me, she is a rapidly improving filly- I think Michael Bells comments above outline that. I think she has surprised/is surprising people. She was 16/1 on debut and tenderly handled, noted for making headway at Nottingham that day into 4th. She then went to Doncaster, travelled like a good horse, but only just put the race to bed. With that said, she did keep on really well. The reappearance this season is more interesting than anything. It was a small field that was dictated at a slow to even tempo, and the smart John Gosden horse WINSILI quickened up to put it to bed. The Lark travelled into that race like a seriously good filly. However, she was never going to be able to quicken as well as that horse and in the end was only finding top stride at the line. To me, she is an improving horse with circumstances having gone against her last time, and hence unfancied. The rain for her is a godsend and I actually think the better the race the more she'll reveal. It will be interesting if Spencer looks to go from somewhere near the front here. I think the softening ground is really in her favour (by Pivotal) and the dam side is CHOC full of stamina. The dam- Gull Wing- was by In The Wings (Sadler´s Wells (USA) (11.4f) â High Hawk (Shirley Heights (12.3f)) ) who was a Coronation Cup winner at Epsom and a Breeders Cup turf winner, and out of a dam called Maycocks Bay, who signed off her career winning a 1m 6f handicap rated 91. Gull Wing won twice on turf- on soft and heavy ground. Who knows- maybe we end up finding out that Secret Gesture and Liber Nauticus are the real deal. I just think there is value here in two totally unexposed fillies who have been crying out for this sort of field and a good gallop. Let's see if the conditions suit- it is always an unknown factor, but the clues are there.
Ralph Beckett’s Secret Gesture was a facile victor at Lingfield, which suggests that Epsom should hold no terrors; however, she beat trees that day and others make more appeal. The form horse is Moth as the Newmarket Guineas form has been franked by the runner up winning the Irish equivalent and her middle distance pedigree leaves the only question being whether she handles the track. Her stablemate Snow Queen appears to be well held on form. Harry Dunlop’s Roz also appears held but the step up in trip might also improve last year’s Fillies’ Mile runner up. Liber Nauticus has the pedigree for this but the money was on her before she won the Musidora, the form of which looks suspicious because of the proximity of the runner up Romantic Settings (unless that one is improving rapidly). There are concerns about the track for what seems quite a big filly but it is not safe to rule her out as there could be any amount of improvement in her. Banoffee has to be respected as connections have stumped up to add her to the field although the face value of the Chester form is difficult to assess. There does not appear to be any reason why Gertrude Versed should reverse Roodeye placings and The Lark does not have much prospect of upholding the family tradition without significant rain. The Ballydoyle second string Say does not appear to have the level of form required and would probably be twice the odds if stabled elsewhere. Talent won the Pretty Polly on her seasonal bow, beating Michael Bell’s Madame Defarge. Her trainer will have some idea of how she compares to his favourite but both fillies should be suited by the extra distance and need to find improvement. In conclusion, Moth looks a good option for initiating a potential Epsom Classic double for Ireland.
2.10 Epsom Blue Surf 5/1 Although he disappointed on his final start last season, Blue Surf was very progressive as a 3 year old and this unexposed son of Excellent Art looks to have an excellent chance of winning this for the red hot Amanda Perrett stable. After 3 good runs in Maidens as a 2 year old, Blue Surf made a successful start to his 3 year old campaign when scoring on handicap debut off a mark of 80 at Windsor last July before running a fine 3rd off a mark of 85 at Goodwood a month later in a race that has worked out well. Raised 2lb for that effort, he regained the winning thread with an excellent win over that same 10f trip at Goodwood off a mark of 87 when asserting late on with the front two clear of the remainder before he was luckless on several occasions at Ascot after that. He got going too late over 1m2f at Newbury on good to firm ground off a mark of 94 when staying on to finish 3rd but scored very impressively eased back to a mark of 93 over that same C+D at the end of October when he travelled extremely well before quickening to lead inside the final furlong where he idled late on but was always doing enough. Although the 2nd and 3rd have yet to run again, the form of that race is very strong with the 4th Sir John Hawkwood winning both his subsequent starts to now see him rated 110 and it very much seemed like Blue Surf was still very much on the up. He was never better than midfield on his final start at Doncaster but that was his 7th run in a season that only started in July so I'm ignoring that effort and he's been freshened up over the winter where hopefully he's developed into an even better 4 year old. He races here off a mark of 98 and given that he's only 5lb above his last impressive success and given his unexposed and progressive nature I think he'll make up into a Pattern horse this year. A horse who clearly goes well fresh, he represents an Amanda Perrett yard that could not be going any better at the moment with 9 winners from her last 16 runners and Pat Dobbs, who was on board for all Blue Surf's successes, takes the ride. Although he could have been drawn better than stall 11, he should really like Epsom's very sharp nature given its similarity to Goodwood and he should also really enjoy the given in the ground as well. Although quite a competitive little contest, if he's improved over the winter months then I think Blue Surf has an outstanding chance of winning this to keep his trainer's tremendous form going. 5.40 Catterick Decent Fella 6/1 I'm having a decent bet on Decent Fella as he could prove miles too good for these off a mark of 67 having shaped extremely well over an inadequate 5f at Chepstow on his first start on turf for his current trainer and is extremely well handicapped on his old form. Rated 92 as recent as September of last year for Andrew Balding, this 7 year old joined Violet Jordan in December last year and after running 11 times on the all weather in recent months his mark has plummeted to 67 on a surface that doesn't suit anywhere near as much as turf. His latest start came at Chepstow earlier this month over an inadequate 5f off this mark of 67 (a full 25lb below the mark his previous turf start came on) and he very much looked like a horse who was very close to winning with an extremely eye catching run. On a day where Chepstow was very much suiting those who were on the pace, Decent Fella was ridden by Cathy Gannon and it very much seemed as if his jockey was taking a tug in the early stages as he was a full 10L+ off the pace. Heading towards the final furlong, he was still absolutely miles behind the principles and when Gannon released a bit of rein he made up a huge amount of ground without ever being asked much of a question and he was never nearer than at the finish as he was beaten 3L in the end. He really seemed to appreciate the return to turf despite the trip being too short and I expect him to go very close off the same mark now over his best distance of 7f. In her reasonably short career, Violet Jordan has made a name for herself for getting horses very well handicapped in a short period of time and this one looks to fit that pattern perfectly and he is undoubtedly ridiculously well handicapped and her horses have been running well recently without winning. Robert WinstQon takes the ride on his first outing for the stable but its very interesting that he is 1-1 for the owner and Decent Fella has bagged the plum draw in stall 1. There seems to be a lot of potential pace angles in the race which should suit this hold up performer and if building on his latest effort now back over his optimum trip then this well handicapped individual could prove miles too good off a mark of 67 in what looks a very winnable contest. 6.15 Down Royal Sir Ector 13/2 The very shrewd James Lambe looks to have found his unexposed 6 year old an excellent chance of recording his 2nd win over hurdles at a track where he goes very well having won once and finished 2nd twice on 3 starts at Down Royal. A very useful horse on the flat in France and now for current connections (rated 90 on the level), Sir Ector had 3 quick runs over hurdles early last year on unsuitably soft ground before a massive gamble was foiled on his handicap debut off a mark of 89 over 2m at Down Royal last May when he couldn't real back Flemross who was clear of the field for the entire contest as he had to settle for 2nd and the heartbreak looked set to continue when going down by a short head over this C+D off a mark of 96 a month later. He then returned with a couple of runs on the flat where he won on the second occasions wearing first time blinkers before he got off over hurdles off a mark of 100 when scoring very, very easily by 6L despite a terrible mistake at the 2nd last over 2m at this course again wearing the blinkers under todays jockey Robbie Colgan. He won with any amount in hand that day which saw him raised a huge 17lb in a race where the 3rd has run two very good races on his only subsequent start in Britain including when going down by half a length off a 14lb higher mark (mark inflated in Britain) before taking the winter off. He ran poorly twice in March over hurdles (no blinkers) in unsuitably soft ground which has seen him fall back to a mark of 114 and he ran a really good race on the flat with the blinkers reapplied earlier this month on soft ground he would have disliked which clearly shows he is in good heart. Its absolutely no surprise to see him sporting the blinkers again today given that he goes extremely well at Down Royal and he also gets his preferred good ground in a race that I suspect the trainer has earmarked for him for some time. Despite being a stone higher than his win last Summer, he is still unexposed over hurdles and his mark of 114 looks very manageable in relation to his flat rating and I think he's going to go really close.
Mentioned this one last night: SHORT SQUEEZE 6.35 Goodwood I overheard a lad from Hugo Palmer's talking about this horse last night. Yesterday's winner AUDACIA has been working with this chap and she hasn't been able to get past him on the gallops. He's likely to be a shortish price, so I don't know how much value there is, but I'm passing it on all the same!
I'm not sure you can say she beat trees QM - the second, Miss You Too (who I admit pulled far too hard for her own good) was a good 2nd in one of those Tattersall's Millions events on her last start as a 2YO; The 3rd home, Whippy Cream, was just under 3 lengths 4th behind Banoffee at Newbury but was slammed over 11 lengths by Secret Gesture; the 4th home, Alta Lilea, was a dual winner and also finished 4th in the Feilden behind Intello and Glory Awaits. I'm struggling to find a piece of form which is more relevant to 12 furlongs at Epsom on soft ground.
Banoffee for me in the Oaks - form looks good and couldn't resist the jockey booking. And a small patent on the 1st three races. Thistle bird, Tres coronas and gregorian. Good luck one and all.
Anyone give a sniff to rank outsider Miss You Too in the Oaks? Should improve greatly for the step up to 12 (bred to do so) - has run very well at 2 against the colts at inadequate trips, and if we take the trial (where she got beat 10L by Secret Gesture) as a fitness exercise, which these trials are sometimes used for, does that really make her a rank 80/1 outsider? I can think of 25/1, 16/1 shots that ahve less credentials!
Good luck TC. Impressed with your approach. The Oaks could very easily throw up an unexpected result. I'm not betting in it. Not impressed enough by anything this year.
Fun Fact: 9 of the 11 Oaks runners are descendents of Sadler's Wells. 3 are are paternal grand-daughters (3 by Galileo; 1 by Montjeu) 4 are paternal great-grand-daughters (2 by sons of Galileo; 2 by sons of Montjeu) 1 is a maternal great-grand-daughter (dam by In The Wings)
Morning, troops. If I’d have been around in the 18th Century, and my name was old boy Lord Derby, then today’s big ‘un would be known as the ‘Chuckle Towers’ rather than the ‘Oaks’. Makes you think doesn’t it! I’ve given my views on the Oaks over the winter and it ain’t changed one, I say one, bit. The rest of the Epsom Downs card looks something of a lottery and I’d imagine that in several heats the winner will be decided by which beast gets the luckiest passage through the race over the unique gradients of the course. The most interesting runner of the day though has to be old boy Paintball down at Goodwood (8.15). The 2012 Imperial Cup hero has been in dire form since this success and was woeful over fences last time as he managed to fall twice in the same race! Will the Flat revitalise him after a break from that sphere of getting on for 3 years?!? Who knows, but he’s trained by Mr Henderson’s former assistant Charlie Longsdon and we all know how good Mr Henderson is when he goes ‘on the level’. If Charlie has learnt a thing or two Paintball could surprise everyone. Don’t forget they race at Market Rasen today, people. Mr Henderson and Henry Ponsonby combine in 2 of the heats and they could walk away with a double. The former Grade 2 winning hurdler General Miller makes his fencing bow (2.30) and Lady of Provence, what a lovely name for a filly by the way, looks the standout in the ‘lucky last’ (5.30). Good luck people.
