ROTO I will leave Jedward this time with Amy Ryan on board and hope that a defeat here will leave an even better opportunity next time out If he runs, WASEEM FARIS could do with some consideration. I think he disappointed connections two nights ago but he was racing on the outside at a Newmarket track that so often proves you need cover. It is telling if Channon allows him to run and Charles Bishops 5lb claim means an effective rating of 72- well within his reach in a not so vintage field. Jedward is going to go on a good run at some point this season but I hope it doesn't begin until next time out
2.20 Newmarket: Perennial 9/1 A decent horse who has so blatantly needed further. 1m 6f can bring out the best of him and he showed at Epsom that he needed a longer trip. Almost saw of Michaelangelo last year, who ended up 3rd in the St Leger. If it rains at Newmarket though, get yourself a bit on Albert Bridge 16/1 who is a real stayer but being by Hernando could do with a bit of cut.
GREMELL 4.40 Newmarket around 6/4 should win I have been told but fly in the ointment could be OH BETTY I'VE DONE A WHOOPSIE lol but I will be investing GL if you play
1.45 Newmarket Greensward 28/1 Mike Murphy's 7 year old Greensward has fallen 7lb in two poor runs this season which I will touch on later on but he is now an extremely well handicapped horse off a mark of 78 and with strong C+D form in the book for an a superb outfit I think he looks very well weighted if bouncing back to form. Formerly with Brian Meehan, Greensward signed off his time Manton based trainer with a couple of wins in late 2011 including off a mark of 9lb higher mark of 87 at Chester before joining current connections. I think Greensward is the only horse to have joined the excellent Mike Murphy that hasn't been a success story but he certainly hasn't been a flop either. He ran well in January last year on the AW off a mark of 91 and after a couple of average efforts he was an extremely unlucky off a mark of 87 at Haydock last May when meeting interference which I think personally cost him the race. He wasn't at his best on his final 2 starts last year and the same can be said as he has finished a well beaten last on his two starts this campaign but I don't think its as straightforward as that. On his seasonal reappearance off a mark of 85 at Kempton he shaped very well for a long way back in February on what was a ride to blow away the cobwebs and the ground went against him on his final start with the rain ruining his chances. I distinctly remember him being very well supported from a double figure price into as short as 4/1 the night before his latest start at Leicester off a mark of 82 when the ground was good to firm but when the rain arrived he was very weak in the market which was evident in his run as he again didn't run well (wasn't unduly over-handled either). Rain soaked ground just isn't his thing (has been withdrawn 4 times because of it) and although a little faith is required from an inauspicious start to the season he has fallen 7lb for two runs to a mark of 78 which makes him a very well handicapped horse. Moreover, this 0-80 handicap is the easiest race he has competed in for a long time and he's definitely weighted to go very close if rediscovering his form over a C+D he goes well at. The good ground at Newmarket at the moment should be fine for him but if any rain comes (nothing forecast) then I think it will scupper any chance he has. Mike Murphy is my favourite trainer and has had a good start to the season so far and although Greensward is only worth a small each way off 9lb below his last winning mark and 9lb below the mark he was an unlucky loser in this month last year. 2.40 Newbury Khawatim 13/2 Noel Quinlan's 5 year old Khawatim has been in absolutely belting form this year winning 3 of his last 4 starts and I think his 5lb rise for an impressive win at Kempton on his latest start looks very fair and I still think he is a major force to be reckoned with off a mark of 92. He started his winning trend for Quinlan back in January off a mark of 71 when he overcame trouble to get up late on before getting going too late as he couldn't reel back winner. He was then sent over to Dundalk (the trainer's first runner in Ireland since 1974) where he was punted like there was no tomorrow into 4/6 favourite and he duly obliged off a mark of 76 in easy fashion by 3L under today's pilot Ben Curtis. The handicapper took a dim view of that as he was raised 11lb to a mark of 87 but that didn't stop his progression as he won at Kempton in a manner that I was extremely impressed with. Settling in the rear of the field, Khawatim was still last swinging into the home straight under Adam Kirby and was about 7L off the pace with about 2f to go. Under a very confident ride (looked to me like it was only hands and heels) Khawatim made up an awful lot of ground in a short space of time to get up and score by 3/4L in a rather comfortable fashion late on. The progressive Yeeow was back in 2nd who has since gone on to frank the form strongly when winning in good style from a gambled on Hannon horse in a tough handicap at Ascot off a 2lb higher mark which makes Khawatim's new mark of 92 look more than fair. Khawatim switches to the turf for today's contest in what looks a very competitive race and although there has to be a small doubt about this surface given his winning has come on the All Weather he had some very useful from in France on turf and I think he'll be just as good if not better on grass. Ben Curtis, who seemed to get on with Khawatim really well at Dundalk, flies over from Ireland to ride him and I think he's got a really big chance of landing this. Sprinters in form are very much worth following and I'm confident that Khawatim can land this hat trick and continue his rapid progression.
2.50 Thirsk Jedward 10/1 I've been waiting a long, long time for Jedward to wear blinkers as she has an awkward head carriage and off a mark of 81 that she is more than capable of winning off and in a race Kevin Ryan has won twice in the last 4 years. Formerly with Charles O'Brien in Ireland, Jedward showed some really strong form including going down by a head in 3rd where the 1st, 2nd and 4th Roicead, Murura and Maarek are all went on to be rated at least 22lb higher and she also went on to be beaten a neck by subsequent Group 3 winner My Girl Anna back in 2011 before she joined Richard Fahey in April of last year. After some decent placed efforts, she finally landed her 2nd career victory off a 1lb lower mark of 80 in a 0-90 handicap at Newmarket's July course to score by a head (front two over 3L clear) in a race that is really, really strong form. She bettered that performance 10 days later off a mark of 87 when running a blinder in a 0-105 handicap at Ascot with an even better performance when going down by 1L in 4th in a race that again is incredibly strong form. The winner Taajub was beaten by narrow margins in handicaps on his two subsequent starts including off an 8lb higher mark before being beaten a length in a Group 3 and the runner up Mass Rally was beaten a head on his next start in another ultra competitive handicap off a 2lb higher mark and he has since gone on to score twice subsequently including off a 9lb higher mark at York during the week and there is plenty more strong form in that race. She had one more start for Fahey when disappointing at Goodwood before being picked up for 21,000 Guineas last August by Kevin Ryan. After a promising 3rd at Chester off a mark of 87 in a strong looking contest, she was disappointing on her final 3 starts last year confined to very decent races which saw her mark fall to 82. Again, she was a little disappointing at Musselburgh on her reappearance at the end of March but she was drawn in stall 1 and the middle of the track was riding much slower than the rest of the track and I'm willing to forgive that run. She's been eased a further 1lb to a mark of 81 which is a mark that she is more than capable of winning off and I am delighted to see connections reach for a pair of blinkers as I think they could be the making of her. Drawn in the middle in stall 7, I think the plan will be for Amy Ryan to jump out and try and make all and with the rain pelting down at Thirsk likely to give her ideal conditions I think she has more than enough ability to win this mediocre enough looking sprint for an in form stable. 3.15 Newbury Ray Ward 10/1 This represents a big step up in class for David Simcock's 3 year old but he has done very little wrong winning his last two starts well and this well bred son Galileo looks to be on a pretty decent mark of 83 for his handicap debut. A full brother to Aidan O'Brien's pretty high class performer Learn who wasn't beaten far in a French Group 1, Ray Ward was too green to do himself justice on debut but clearly learnt an awful lot for that experience when winning a Maiden in good style on his 2nd start back in January which is some pretty useful form. He was gelded after that run and seemed to improve considerably again on his latest start when winning a 0-75 Classified Race in very good fashion. Held up in the rear of the field, Ray Ward swung into the home turn still in last but Martin Lane produced him with a long and persistent hands and heels ride as he scored very comfortably by 1.5L and this €205,000 purchase looks to be progressing nicely. It looks very interesting that David Simcock sends him into such a competitive looking contest for his handicap debut but an effective mark of 83 (2lb out of the handicap) looks quite lenient judged on what he has achieved on the course and his breeding very much suggests he could be quite a bit better than this. This looks a supremely tough contest with the whole field unexposed and progressive and a few of these have entries in big races and its undoubtedly going to take a well handicapped horse to land this but I think Ray Ward looks just that. Off a nice low weight of 8-2, Martin Lane takes the ride looking to make it 3 wins in a row on board and if as good as his breeding suggests then I'm hopeful Ray Ward can spring a bit of a surprise in this fiercely competitive contest.
Interesting comment Group 1 races won: Cityscape - 1 Farhh - 0 I personally think that beaten a nose and 2L by Dick Turpin, beaten 3L by Canford Cliffs, beaten 1L and 3L by Excelebration and 4L by Wise Dan means that he's proven he's a bloody good horse over the years. Perhaps age has caught up with him but he has a great record fresh. It's fine that you think Farhh will win but to suggest that Cityscape has proven time and time again he isn't a Group 1 horse is ridiculous imho.
I respect that GGW He is often beat cosily at elite level for me- 3L Excelebration, 3L Canford Cliffs and Goldikova, 4L Wise Dan. Dick Turpin was never quite as good as Canford Cliffs. Farhh has to prove he is not the same. Any other trainer and jockey and I would be quite confident today. De Sousa holding up any horse is a scary idea.
Not convinced on either to be honest! Just placed a bet on Chil the Kite 40/1 ew 1/4 odds GP. Cracking bet to me. Headgear applied and Ryan Moore on top...Classy horse this .
Morning all. Had an excellent day yesterday, hope for much of the same today!! Today's lucky 15. Newb,2-05= Gallipot.(Nap) Newb,2-40= Modern Tutor. Newb,3-15= Hillstar. Newb,3-50= Fencing. Good luck to all.
I feel there are quite a few decent priced horses going today that although slightly speculative selections could reward well. Newbury 1.30 Sasketchwan 12-1 EW 2.40 Khubala 12-1 NAP EW Newmarket 2.20 Caravan Rolls On 9-2 WIN Thirsk 3.25 Ashpan Sam 12-1 EW A little each way Yankee may even provide a little fun.
Ive been looking at the Lockinge and its tricky! Cityscape is a bit hit and miss for me, plus im not convinced he is a genuine group 1 horse. Farhh always finishes second plus may well need the run. Beauty Parlour is overrated for me. As someone said earlier, his best form is finishing second behind Up. Aljamaheer has Paul Hanagan on board so im ruling him out. Fencing could well improve further and get a place and Amaron is a bit of an outsider that could run well. The more i look at it the more i keep coming back to Declaration Of War. I agree, his price isnt great for what he has achieved so far however the o'brien team are in great form and i know they think an awful lot of this horse. He has had a run and if he handles the ground (personally i think he will be better on it) then i think he will win this and go on to very good things this year.
Also like Caravan Rolls On today. Goes well fresh and ran a stormer on his last race in September. Off the same mark he should go very close here. I see the overrated dog that is Harris Tweed is racing today too.....on the plus side he goes well fresh, maybe better than some of these but if he proves to be better than Gallipot this season then i will be amazed
Dundonnel's form hasn't really worked out thus far and he might be worth opposing with a penalty today. Brian Meehan has made an eye-catching jockey booking for Supernova Heights who, as an Oasis Dream, has every right to have progressed well from 2-3.
I was sweet on the Cecil horse, but in her absence I agree that Dec of War looks pretty solid, I have missed the good prices so had to take 15-8. I still have my 20-1 ew on Aljamaheer of course - with Hanighan Onagain Biographer here
