So far 20 poeple have predicted for Saturday - 17 have us getting Automatic promotion - and three not - optimism or just hoping ?
J T Bodbo thanks for all the effort you put into your maths. It's a really useful insight into what could happen, don't pay attention to rival fans that get pissed off. Keep it up
Statistics are the science of mass numbers - they can give a guide to individual events but other factors like luck, nerves good or bad refs are far more important in one off events. A while back it looked likely that Cardiff would win the Championship by a clear 10 points or more - now they have to win at Hull for that to happen and if they lose the gap would be only 5 points. I have calculated some odds for todays games. If you look at the home record for Hull and Watford and assume today's games reflect those then Hull's chances of promotion today are 73%. If however you also factor in the quality of the opposition by looking at their away records Hull drop to 62% chance. Either way as you would expect Hull are the favourites. However if Watford win the odds change. Assuming Watford were to win then Hul's odds drop to 50% on their form alone and to 45% if you factor in Cardiff's away record. We know what we have to do - win and leave it to the fate of the gods
I thought I would get in first with this! Over the last twenty seasons the play-off final losers finished in the following position the following season. First - 3 teams (Bolton, WBA, Reading) Second - 0 Third - 0 4th - 2 (both lost in the p/o semi-finals) 5th - 0 6th - 4 (2 won p/o, 2 lost in p/o semi-finals) 8th - 4 9th, 10th, 15th, 16th, 19th, one team each. Relegated - one team, Leeds. The 20th team is us. Make what you will out of that!
