I think pretty much everyone had a decent day on Thursday. Well done lads. Quevega. What can the Champ say? Superstar. Onto another day of the Festival. Champion Hurdle day. The Fly. The Champ's favourite horse. And Champion Novice Hurdle Pont Alexandre 9/10 A massive chasing prospect but one who I am positive will disappoint over fences given his trainers track record. No is the time to back him.
Wooly it's a pity Binocular isn't running as I always enjoy your tuppence worth about him in these races
Great day today! Some more decent sorts out tomorrow and have done the following in trebles and a four fold. 2 look nailed on just need a 3rd for profit. Hurricane fly Pont alexandre Farraaj Sugar boy
Hope so STH A tasty Hurricane and Ponty one double just placed. Pays outs just over the princely sum of 13/10!
two down one to go!hope other 606 folk got on the paddy power special last week for the fly/quevega & de champy to win at 12s!May i ask the fact i backed this anti post that the rule four for solwits withdrawl wont affect the price?Surely the fly is a shoe in considering the ground and the opposition
Sandown 2.10 Market Town 7/1 NAP 2.45 Chill The Kite 7/1 3.15 Fantastic Moon 9/2 5.00 Rocket Rob 8/1 NB Punchestown 4.20 Carlingford Lough 14/1 4.55 Mr Goodenough 12/1 6.40 Eight Chimes 25/1
SO YOUNG 40/1 form on 2m soft/heavy ground: 11111 This horse has been messed around so badly by the Mullins team. He gave weight and a hammering to a then in-form Trifolium last season, smashed up Zaidpour on that ones apparent 'favoured ground', and has been pissed around campaigning at 3m. Hurricane is too short for me and Rock On Ruby could fall into a hole by forcing the pace tomorrow on heavy ground, leaving the door open for the each-way thieves. So Young stays 2m very strongly. Can see him outrunning those odds for sure.
6.05: UN ATOUT (NAP) He is bred for further than 2m and it was only his uber impressive cruising speed in his novice hurdle wins, the fact that Gigginstown had a Neptune horse already, and Pont Alexandre was so hyped that sent him Supreme bound. He did not look in brilliant condition at Cheltenham and Mullins did say he had a mini setback around February I believe, and I think he looked a gallop or two short at the festival. He made a couple of mistakes and got outpaced by the front three turning for home that day, but he was a clear 4th and the step up in trip here will very much suit him. Pont Alexandre is a lovely chasing prospect and he has the technique to make the step up to fences. However, his opening 2 wins are overrated and overhyped purely because he made his debut in a Grade 1. He beat Don Cossack, who is slow as a boat. Then he beat a second rate field, although beating them well. However, Un Atout has gears and goes through this ground, so I think Pont Alexandre has more on his plate here than the market suggests.
7.45: FESTIVE AFFAIR was narrowly beaten by a horse I rate very highly (MOSSY JOE) last time out and can see off Oscar Delta (who will not appreciate this heavy ground), and Salisfy, who did not entirely look the force he was at Cheltenham when a fortunate winner. Derek O'Connor booked and looks interesting at 10/1.
1.40 JILLNEXTDOOR 16/1- I can hardly believe the price. Had absolutely no passage whatsoever LTO and was eased once Harley knew she wasn't going to be able to switch out wide. She was a desperately unlucky 2nd to STEELER imo at Goodwood last season, and is a much, much better horse than she has been able to show. 5f might be a bit sharp, but if she doesn't get too badly outpaced she has a great chance.
3.15 Sandown: GALILEO ROCK 15/2 (NB)- Could not have been any more impressive for a Derby aspirant on debut. Absolutely scooted clear. The straight mile at Newmarket would never have suited in the Dewhurst and back on a track with a bend and over an extra 2f, this horse might take some stopping if hitting top gear. Looks the galloping type who ought to be suited to Sandown, a la Workforce, Nathaniel, and So You Think amongst others seen over the past 2 or 3 years.
Please, please have a look at the breeding on offer in the 4.25 Maiden fillies at Sandown. Ed Dunlop has a Galileo filly out of Ouijia Board amongst some other wonderful pedigrees.
Yes TC, a race that is often a first step for an improving filly to Group class. It has often supplied Oaks fancies and an Oaks winner in '93 (may be more than one). I am strongly hoping that Auld Alliance is another such filly. Better bred than her half-brothers Golan and Tartan Bearer, she comes to the race with a similar cv: like Tartan Bearer she was 2nd in her only 2yo race at the back-end of the season. Up until she ran she was not mentioned on the gallops but her run was full of promise and she holds the Oaks entry. One must feel she is the owner's and stable's second string as they have the current favourite in Liber Nauticus, but this is a family whose horses generally improve as 3yos. She will need to win (or run a really good race) to qualify for a further Oaks trial.
3.15 Sandown Galileo Rock 15/2 This looks a very big price in my book for David Wachman's 3 year old who I think will improve enormously now a 3 year old, stepped up in trip and running on proper quick ground in this Derby Trial. I could not have been more impressed with Galileo Rock's racecourse debut when absolutely blitzing the field on unsuitably soft ground by 7L over a mile at Leopardstown last August. My immediate thought after that victory was that is the Derby winner and although his last run has changed my tune I still think a Derby victory is possible if he's progressed in the manner I think he should have. Galileo Rock was pitched into the Group 3 Autumn Stakes on his final start at Newmarket over the straight mile and although I was personally disappointed given I thought he was a machine prior to that run it was still a very encouraging run. Sitting just behind the pace, Galileo Rock looked like he lacked the straight line speed of his opponents when the race quickened as he faded to finish 5th beaten a little over 5L but it was still an encouraging performance over a trip I don't think we'll ever see him over again. He's got a bit more than a length to make up with tomorrow's 2nd favourite Eye Of The Storm but I definitely think he's got the ability to do so. One of the main reasons I was so impressed with Galileo Rock's win on debut as a 2 year old was that his 3/4 brother Saddlers Rock didn't see the racecourse until 3 and took 3 starts to get off the mark and there is no doubt in my mind he'll be a much better 3 year old. Additionally, he'll love the step up to 10f with a stiff finish and he'll be even better over further when he goes up in trip throughout his career. Connections have stated that this fella needs good ground (like Saddlers Rock) and he'll get just that tomorrow. Although I'm slightly worried about a lack of pace (hopefully Sugar Boy sets a good tempo) I'm confident of a big showing and David Wachman isn't sending him across the Irish Sea without a chance. Stable jockey Wayne Lordon comes across to take the ride and I'm confident of success for this 3 year old and 15/2 is a lovely price in my book. 4.20 Punchestown Terminal 10/1 Although its definitely disconcerting that Ruby chooses Immediate Response (who he have never ridden) over this one but I'm hoping he has gotten it wrong as I think this handicap debutant looks on a very workable mark of 143. This 6 year old has only had 12 starts in his career to date (4 over fences) and joined Willie Mullins last year after winning 3 bumpers in France. He won 2 of his 4 starts over hurdles last year but already looks a much better chaser who I have been rather impressed with in his 4 starts over the larger obstacles. Terminal made a very nice debut when just failing to reel back the very useful yard stick Canaly on his chasing debut back in December over an inadequate 17f at Fairyhouse and he's shown a progressive profile since then. He got off the mark over fences at the 2nd time of asking when he won going away despite a few jumping errors over 20f at Cork back in January. Terminal won in extremely impressive fashion when stepped into Grade 2 Company at Navan back in February when comprehensively beating Tofino Bay by 5.5L (in receipt of 5lb) who has since franked the form strongly by narrowly going down in the 4 Miler at Cheltenham. That day he has a few jumping errors (which Willie Mullins thought was down to shadows on the course) but it was an impressive and authoritative victory against a very decent opponent. Terminal was pitched into the deep end at the Cheltenham Festival when running an excellent 10L beaten 5th but I think his performance was better than the mere form. Held up at the rear of the field, Terminal was making some nice progress going around the outside of the field but he made a shuddering error at 4 out that saw him drop about 5L off the main pack. However, David Casey allowed his mount to regroup and he stayed on really nicely late on to finish a highly respectable 5th. If he had not made that error, I definitely feel that Terminal would have finished a clear 3rd and I definitely feel there is more to come. Based on his 4 starts over the larger obstacles, I definitely feel he's on a very workable mark of 143 and I think it must have been a very difficult decision for Ruby to chose the current favourite. However, Paul Townend is a more than able deputy and he's sure to give him a good ride. Although he looks a stout stayer, I don't think the drop back to 2m5f will be a hindrance with the testing conditions at present and Willie Mullins couldn't have his horses in better form at the moment as illustrated by his tremendous 5 timer yesterday. This looks a traditionally tricky contest that will take a fair bit of winning under 11-9 but if he jumps cleanly then I see no reason why he shouldn't be bang there at the finish and hopefully he can land this nice prize. 4.55 Punchestown In Great Form 14/1 This is last chance saloon for me with In Great Form but there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that he more than enough ability to win off his current mark of 117 and I think he will relish the step up to 3m6f today. Francis Flood's 8 year old looked like a horse on an a huge upward curve when winning a couple of handicaps at Fairyhouse last season before running an absolute blinder in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown last February off a mark of 121 when finishing an 11L beaten 3rd over 3m4f in a race that is really strong form. The winner Portrait King won the Eider off an 18lb higher mark less than a month later whilst the runner up Up The Beat ran a highly credible 4th in the Kim Muir off a 13lb higher mark on his only subsequent start. Additionally, In Great Form shaped like an out and out stayer that day and I've been waiting for him to be seen over a mammoth trip ever since. That was his last start last season and after a highly encouraging reappearance this year he ran an absolute blinder in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown when finishing a very good 5th off a mark 121 back in December. He looked liked he was still progressing based on that run but he's looked a shell of his former self since then. He was pulled up on his next two starts before being tailed off in the Leinster National two starts back but he looked as if he was coming back to form with a much more encouraging 4th at Fairyhouse LTO when staying on strongly over the 3m1f trip (still beaten 17L). It was definitely a step in the right direction but he certainly didn't look like a winner in waiting. I've literally no clue what happened to him since the Paddy Power Chase but I'm hoping Francis Flood has been aiming him at this and he comes here spot on. At the start of the season, I thought he looked an Aintree Grand National horse who I felt was up to achieving a mark in the 130s and although that has clearly gone out the window there is no doubt in my mind that he could blitz this field off 117 if showing his absolute best ability. He'll definitely appreciate every inch of the 3m6f trip today and has a featherweight of 9-11 to carry which could prove pivotal over this trip in testing conditions. Alan Crowe takes the ride and is a fine jockey who can make this weight and he's already familiar with him which is a big bonus. If his latest run at Fairyhouse was a sign that he's coming back to form then it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he runs a monster in this and off 117 I think he has more than enough ability to land this long distance handicap.
