Mafia III: Day 2

So many suspicious people! Its to much

 

So many suspicious people! Its to much

 

Actually i've seen subtle hints of who the second killer is. I won't be saying who though. Until next round. Let's finish this and all vote EMSC now!

 

EMSC, what do you mean by "Revealed as a cop by RR" in your post no.33?

 

But you have even less to gain.
If the doctor is unknown, they can save themselves to stay in, or play the odds that they won't be killed and save who they think is important (Ie the cop, a highly suspected player they have faith in.)
But if the doctor is known, they'd feel forced to save themselves each night. You could gamble on the killers assuming you would do and save someone else, but your odds of being killed are definitely higher than the equal chance you'd have had whilst unknown.

Literally the only play where it's worth revealing yourself as the doctor is when you're under great suspicion, as a last chance plea to stop a lynching. For example 'yesterday' when the votes were 3-2 against Jonny, he could have outed himself as the doctor in the hope of convincing someone to change their minds.

 

Keen

 

Point A: Because ultimately murderers have to play the long game. If someone comes out in support of you when everyone else is against you, then they'd be singling themselves out as the next obvious target. There is currently little evidence in your favour, so there's no reason to buck the trend unless they were trying to cover for you. If anyone was to come out in support of you, they'd need a watertight argument to prevent themselves being turned on. As you've come out as the cop, the second killer couldn't also pull this stunt to try and give evidence to defend you, as they could if you hadn't claimed anything.

Point B: Investigating won't tell you who the doctor is anyway, and if anything someone claiming the role without any reason would look more, not less suspicious. We started with 9 players. We know 2 killers are left, and if you are telling the truth about being the cop, then there were originally 6 players of which 1 was the doctor. 3 of those are now dead, 3 are left. I'm also going to rule out Jonny from being the doctor as if I was in his position I'd have shown my hand in a last ditch effort to persuade someone to change their mind. That leaves a 60% chance that the doctor is alive.

 

Is nobody seeing his aggression to get rid!!!???

 

What else is there going to be? Arguing to and fro with us two and that's it.

 

Yes but, given your insistent defence, he has to because he is the other 'most suspected'.

 

So, who's left...

- DHCanary
- Julius Caesar
- di Fredsta!
- BrightLampShade
- MaxWhiplash
- EternaMSC

2 are killers - Certain
1 Cop - claimed
1 Doc - unknown
4, 3 or 2 fans

Eternal - Suspect
di Fredsta - Suspect
Julius Caesar - fairly Suspect
DHCanary - Mildly Suspect
MaxWhiplash - Mildly Suspect

Well thats that, I'm full blown paranoid

 

You mention that the story has no influence on events. Also that Julius being a killer would not be because he was the doctor in the last game.

Both points can cloud your thoughts even slightly, especially the bloodied dummy story.
I was just pointing out an eye on Julius's movements would be handy.

Also you do seem very very keen on doing me over.

Anyway I am tired of being a one man army. Time for tv.

 

Can I just add to your paranoia? Do we know for certain that BLS is innocent? Sorry, I'm new to this.

I do agree with you though that JC's coolness does raise him above 'mildly suspect', IMO.

 

For certain no, unless Eternal is the cop, which is suspect already.

 

There must be a one fan and maybe a doctor left.
Who I am sure will save himself in these very messed up times.

 

Yes, but it doesn't reflect well on you or him. Currently, I don't think anyone is buying the explanation you offered for your bungled first cop post, so most of us have you down as public enemy number 1. However, I think most people have Di Fredsta! down as their second suspect. No doubt Di Fredsta has realised this, so needs a plan for the next 'day'. Should you be lynched, we get to hear your real identity, and I'd put money on you not being the true cop. 'Tomorrow', when Di Fredsta! falls under strong suspicion, he can claim that he's the real cop, and that he couldn't reveal himself 'today' as it wouldn't have given him a chance to unmask the second killer overnight, as he'd have been murdered. From di Fredsta's point of view, he can make a much more convincing argument as there'll only be (presumably) 4 people left, and he'll have had 3 nights to investigate.

For example, should I get killed tonight and EMSC be lynched, tomorrow we'd be left with JC, BLS, Max and Fred. With 3 nights down, Fred can claim to have investigated everyone left in the game, and make his case against someone else to be the killer. That person gets lynched, and Di Fredsta! can kill another in the night, to leave just 2 players, and then Fred has won the game.


That's how I see it panning out at the moment anyway. Of course, if EMSC is telling the truth and we accidentally lynch the cop, then that argument no longer works, but with 2 killers left from presumably 4 players in Day 3, there's more serious problems afoot.

In fact, thinking more about that second scenario, Doctor please don't reveal yourself!! If EMSC gets falsely lynched, Day 3 has 2 killers left, and only 2 others if the murderer's score a hit in the night. At this point the killers have effectively already won, as by voting together, 50% of the available votes are against one person. To prevent them succeeding, both the remaining players would have to vote the same way. We'd then reach a deadlock, where neither killer would change their mind, forcing a remaining fan/cop/medic to turn against their unknown ally for the game to proceed. That night the killers bump off the remaining player, and win the game. Even if the medic is that final player and saves themselves, they'd get lynched on the final day anyway.

Therefore, it's imperative that the Doctor doesn't reveal themselves! We have to stand a chance of getting 5 players into day 3 if EMSC is lynched falsely.

 

Cheers, that's what I thought. But you're way down my suspect list at this stage.

 

Everyone is at the top of mine

 

Yeah but maybe I'm lying!

 

After replying to me you (conveniently?) missed out the most important question. Why are you playing this game differently to the other two previous games?