The Champ finished watching the first day of action at Punchestown a disappointed chap. 4 bumpers in a row I have been on the receiving end of a mishap/bad ride. Boston Bob got caught up in the Dedigout fall which pushed him a long way last. Townend decided to keep calm and edge him back into the race. That would have probably worked on a good jumper but the Mullins trademark is to the fore again and when asked to jump a little faster he fell. Do not worry though pilgrims. I have licked my wounds. I have regrouped. I am ready to fire my day two salvo. 4.20 Gassin Golf 6/1 e/w Conkers time in the Taunton bumper tomorrow. Western Diamond is going to win. Man sized. 16/1 e/w with Willhill. 5.35 Perth Brunswick Gold 8/1 e/w
Nadiya De La Vega you say? 10 stone 4 you say? Bazza G. on board you say? Man-sized e/w bet I say Also on Long Run, surely SDC won't like the ground and First Lieutenant will be over the top?
Gigginstown horse would have to be a worry. They don't run their horses in the Cheltenham Bumper so this could feasibly be Mullins's best. Then again, I wouldn't be taking on Briar Hill!
Slightly odd selection for a huge Sir Des Champs fan like me but CAPTAIN CHRIS 6/1 could take some beating tomorrow. His record right-handed is excellent and he needs right-handed tracks to be seen to his best. He was out of contention before he could have a hard race in a Cheltenham uphill finish in the Gold Cup, and he will be coming here a bit fresher than most. First Lieutenant had two hard races at Cheltenham and then Aintree so if he wins it will be a brilliant effort. Sir Des Champs had a tough finish when ending up in a dog fight with Bobs Worth and Long Run battled him at the head of affairs for 3 miles. To me, Punchestow is a slight afterthought from the Waley-Cohens and I think his one paced style will be exposed around here. The best horse in the race for me is absolutely Sir Des Champs, but he is a Cheltenham horse and if Captain Chris can beat him into 2nd being a fresher horse and advantaged going right-handed, then I would quite like to test the antepost prices on SDC for a Gold Cup next year after narrowly missing out this year. This could end up a right old duel for the speed up front- Long Run, First Lieutenant, and Sir Des Champs are all prominent racers, which is why I can see a slightly fresher Captain Chris nabbing this and gaining his 2nd Punchestown win.
Conkers time in the Taunton bumper tomorrow. Western Diamond is going to win. Man sized. Forecast 12/1. Bet I don't get better than 6/1. Because Blue Buttons is also running I'm going e/w and the forecast.
3.20 Epsom MIRSALLE 13/2 can win the Derby trial for James Tate. He will improve for a step up in trip having ran with promise in a sales race behind Ghurair last season, and is the sort of 3 year old this trainer can do well with. Tate is 2 from 15 at Epsom in the last 12 months and the form on offer here is as good as any. Real value if ready to go.
2.55 Epsom Right Step 8/1 Alan Jarvis's 6 year old was disappointing for most of last season but is far too well handicapped a horse to leave unbacked and after an encouraging seasonal reappearance on Kempton last month he could be set to bounce back to form on the card he won on last year off a 7lb higher mark. Now rated 83, this is the lowest mark he's been off since his handicap debut way back in 2010 and although probably not as good a horse that saw him rated 100 back in 2011 I'd be very surprised if he's not up to winning off this mark. Last year Right Step made his seasonal debut on the flat (fit from hurdling) to score in the Investec City and Suburban Handicap (Spanish Duke's race) impressively off a mark of 90 when coming from a long way back to score going away by 1.5L on heavy going and his subsequent rise to a mark of 97 saw him unable to land a blow for the rest of the season. On his 6 subsequent starts, he was very disappointing (latterly of 89) but his final start off a mark of 86 at Doncaster was more encouraging when a 5L beaten 5th of 21 in a competitive handicap as he returned to some semblance of form. That was his final start of last years campaign and I thought he made an encouraging seasonal reappearance last month at Kempton. Off a mark of 84 under 7lb claimer David Parkes, Right Step was anchored at the rear of the field and it took him until the final furlong before he got going as he was staying on strongly in the closing stages to finish a well held 4th. It was certainly a step in the right direction and I think it should leave him spot on for today. The handicapper has relented by dropping him a further 1lb to a mark of 83 and this is the lowest mark he's been able to run off since his 3 year old days and he's clearly very well handicapped. It's no surprise to see him return to Epsom given that he clearly goes well hear and I'm very happy to see he is just one of two horses with winning course form at this track which a lot of horses don't like. Although Alan Jarvis is winnerless on the flat since last November, he hadn't had a winner on the flat for even longer before Right Step won at Epsom last year so that isn't a concern at all and the yards latest National Hunt runner was successful so it seems the yard are coming into form. Jim Crowley, who was on board for last years success, takes the ride and I'm very much expecting a big performance. Now 7lb below his last winning mark and with an encouraging reappearance under his belt, I think Right Step looks primed to run another very big race this year and I'm quietly confident he can land this valuable pretty valuable prize. 3.55 Epsom Spanish Duke 4/1 This looks exactly the type of horse Brian Ellison excels with and I am very sure that this very decent pot has been earmarked by connections for quite a while given that he bolted up in this contest back in 2011 for former handler John Dunlop off a 3lb higher mark. Spanish Duke joined current connections for 27,000 Guineas back in October from the now retired Dunlop and he looks on a very workable mark of 92 on with a really encouraging reappearance run under his belt on stable debut. Although winless since winning this back in 2011, he showed on a couple of occasions last year that all his ability remains and I think the switch of stable will work the oracle with him. Looking back at that win at Epsom (his last success) he looked a horse that was on a huge upward curve that day as he travelled like a dream (despite pulling fiercely throughout) and hit the front on the bridle before quickening like a very well handicapped horse to win as he liked in a race that worked out well. Although raised 10lb to a career high mark of 105 after that effort, it's very surprising that it was his last win as he scored in the style of an upwardly mobile horse but it just hasn't worked out for him since. He was poor for the rest of 2011 barring his final start when beaten 2.5L in a Conditions Stakes contest against some useful sorts. Starting off last year rated 100, Spanish Duke had 7 starts and although disappointing on 5 of them he was desperately unlucky in 2 of them. The first of these unlucky in running efforts came at Epsom off a mark of 97 in June 2012 when he was hemmed in at a crucial stage before switching out and running on strongly at the finish to be beaten 2L in a race that worked out well. The other unlucky effort came last August on his 3rd last start for Dunlop off a mark of 94 when he was again hampered at a crucial stage before he ran on strongly to finish 4th. Those two efforts clearly demonstrated that he's still got wins left in him and I am full sure Ellison will get him back to the winners enclosure. One very important thing to note is that, for one reason or another, John Dunlop's horses did not seem to fire last year and I think Spanish Duke will benefit significantly from the switch of yards. Spanish Duke made a highly encouraging stable debut when given a very easy time of things earlier this month at Pontefract in a run that was clearly designed to do two things: get a run under his belt and attempt to get him to settle in a first time hood. On the back of a 192 day absence, as soon as the stalls opened Dale Swift took a took and anchored him at the rear of the field. Despite being his usual keen self early on, he settled an awful lot better then he has previously as it seemed the application of the hood worked very well. Held up a country mile off the speed, Dale Swift began a long sustained run from the 2f pole and barring one whip it was a hands and heels drive which saw him make up a lot of ground to finish a 7L beaten 6th. Another two things to note are its very difficult to come from off the pace at Pontefract and that contest was definitely one that suited those to the fore and I don't think you could ask for a much more pleasing stable debut given that Ellison had said prior to the race he would come on for the run. Tomorrow Spanish Duke returns to Epsom and he clearly loves the idiosyncratic nature of the track with a win and unlucky 3rd from just two starts here which is a definite plus given that most of his rivals tomorrow are unproven at the track. The booking of William Buick very much catches the eye tomorrow on what will be just his 3rd start for the yard and its clear that they mean business putting him up. In the retained hood, I really hope they don't anchor him in last as there doesn't look a huge amount of pace and although the widest draw isn't ideal I feel it won't be the difference between him winning and losing. Brian Ellison has his string in absolutely tremendous form at present and this is a very rare runner for him at the track which the yard send just Spanish Duke on this over 8 hour return trip. Although I strongly fancy him to be successful, there are a few unexposed typed that could plausibly spoil the party so I'd recommend taking the 4/1 e/w with Bet365 as I just cannot see him out of the first 3. With the hood retained, everything looks set up for Spanish Duke to run a huge race in this and I strongly fancy him to win this contest again and snap a 2 year winless spell in the process.
7.05 Taunton Bob's Legend 16/1 If fully fit from his 181 day absence, I really fancy Bob's Legend to win this very poor looking race for Martin Bosley and if he does so comfortably I won't be at all surprised. This 7 year old is a horse I've been waiting a long time to reappear as he was an absolutely massive eye catcher in my books on his last start on handicap debut off a mark of 106 and now that handicapper has been extremely lenient in dropping him back to a mark of 100 I think he has the ability to trounce this field if fully fit. After two runs in bumpers back in 2010 for Linda Jewell, Bob's Legend embarked upon his hurdles career for Martin Bosley in November 2011 in a Class 4 Novice Hurdle at Uttoxeter. I have to say it was an effort that screamed of a lot of promise for all his atrocious jumping. On the back of a 19 month absence from his day with Jewell, this gelding was held up in the rear of the field by Andrew Thornton and for the entire contest his jumping was about as novicey as your ever likely to see - if it transpired that he had never even seen a hurdle before that race it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest as that's how bad his jumping was. Nevertheless (and somewhat amazingly) he remained on the bridle the whole way through the contest as he just kept progressing through the field passing 8 of his 14 rivals as he finished a completely not knocked about 17L beaten 6th. Although that race wasn't very good, to jump that badly yet make what was very good and seemingly effortless headway was rather eye catching and he did really come across as a horse who could have a very good engine. A month later he ran at Fakenham in what has turned out to be a pretty decent maiden and although beaten a long way in 6th, he was again never knocked about in a race where the first 3 home are now rated 134, 126 and 120. Although improved, his jumping still left a lot to be desired as he showed a tendency to jump right handed. His final start of the 2011/2012 season came in February of last year at Doncaster where Bob's Legend again put in a display of considerable encouragement when a not knocked about 21L beaten 6th in what again looks a very decent Novice contest. After being quite keen and free in the early stages of the contest, Bob's Legend sat a few lengths of the leading group of 8 for most of the contest where he still jumped a little novicey (considerably better than his first two starts over hurdles). In between the 4th and 3rd last flights, he seemed to be getting a little lazy so Andrew Thornton gave him a big whip with the stick - the only time I have seen him touched with the whip in his 4 starts over hurdles - and he responded to it well as he, once again, was not unduly knocked about as he finished a good 6th. The form of that race looks very strong with the winner Oscar Nominee coming out and getting beaten only 2 necks in the Conditional Jockeys handicap at the Cheltenham festival a month later off a mark of 135 whilst the 2nd Victor Leudorom won 4 Novice Hurdles in a row after this and is now rated 132. Additionally, the 3rd home Special Catch easily won his next two starts in Novice Hurdles and is rated 127. Although he may not have troubled these three if asked for everything (could well have), he would have finished a damn sight closer and regardless of this he's now playing a completely different ball game now handicapping off a mark of 100. In October last year, Bob's Legend made a very eye catching handicap debut a mark of 106 at Ludlow on the back of a 270 day absence and it seemed as clear as day that this was merely a pipe opener for him. On his blog trainer Martin Bosley stated "Bob's Legend has grown into a much stronger horse and mentally much more relaxed" and it certainly seemed to be the case. Settled at the rear of the field, Bob's Legend clearly had a fair bit of schooling over hurdles as he was much tidier over his obstacles.On the long run before the home straight for the final 3 flights, Bob's Legend scythed through the field in effortless fashion as he travelled as well as anything to sit just in behind the leading 4 and it looked as if he was going to play a massive hand in the race. However he was never given any urging to attempt to play a hand in the finish as he came home at his own pace to finish nearly 20L beaten in 6th. Once again, that seems a very good contest with the easy winner the legendary Sporting Boy subsequently annihilating a better race under a 7lb penalty whilst the 2nd Stevie Thunder and 4th Dizzy River have both run up to about the same level of form on their next two starts. In his blog after the race, Martin Bosley stated " He looked amazing, a quality horse in looks and performance - looked like a young footballer having his first game of the season...A super run for an inexperienced horse and looking like a winner in due course". I think its a very accurate summation of the performance and I couldn't agree more about him being a winner in waiting. With only 4 hurdling efforts under his belt, he's clearly open to considerable improvement (and I expect an awful lot of that). Handicapping was clearly always going to be his game and I think he looks more than capable of defying his current mark of 100 - and this is without me ever seeing the button pushed on him! Connections maintain that he is a horse that need quick ground and with the abysmal weather for most of this season he has been unable to run again and its taken 6 months for him to get his desired ground. If this run wasn't coming on the back of an absence, I would be having a sizeable each way bet as if he wins this comfortably I won't be surprised but the 181 day absence is just niggling at the back of my head. That said, the yard clearly have no problem readying a horse with both their National Hunt winners this season coming on the back of an absence and they could have run him on his unfavoured ground to keep him fit Martin Bosley has his horses in good order with Topthorn (who I expect to comfortably win the proceeding race) successful recently and the good to firm ground should be ideal for Bob's Legend. I don't think connections could have found a much easier race for him to run in as this looks a very poor field despite its size and despite having to shoulder top weight I think he could prove much too good for this lot. With regular partner Andrew Thornton taking the ride, I strongly fancy this unexposed 7 year old in this and he looks a tremendous price at 16/1 (already been nibbled) and if he wins this comfortably I will not be the least bit surprised. I'd definitely advise anyone looking to back him to watch back his last run and as long as my eyes aren't deceiving me I think he's got an excellent chance of winning this race. If he wasn't coming here on the back of an absence, I'd be having a much larger bet but I've still had a decent go as I think Bob's Legend could be absolutely chucked in.
Punchestown 4.20 Call Me Bubbles 6/4 4.55 Morning Assembly 33/1 5.30 Sir Des Champs 9/4 NAP 6.05 The Mighty Milan 9/1 NB 6.40 De Valira 33/1 Epsom 2.20 La Fortunata 12/1 2.50 Mawaakef 16/1 3.20 Another Cocktail 10/1
I've been following Kris Kin offspring in the NH sphere this season, I was interested in him as a NH sire even before Empiracle hosed up in his bumper. Although he hasn't had many runners, a few of them have done pretty well and produced some nicely priced winners (e.g. Armedanddangerous, Kriss Cross). In the Taunton mares bumper tonight we have Kris Magic, by Kris Kin out of Insan Magic. The dam was a bumper winner on firm ground in Ireland and, despite there being some nice looking sorts in tonight's race I will be having a little e/w dabble at the advertised odds of 40/1. Colin Heard is 0 from 4 in Bumpers so is due a change of luck
Ballycasey looked mighty impressive lto winning on the bridle, should handle 3m fairly easily but surely he still has a way to go from there to finish in front of Inish Island on his run in behind At Fishers Cross...
Morning, troops. Hope everyone well. I think those bookie chappies have got the big ‘un at Punchestown about right and for that reason allied to the one that at this point in the term you just don’t know which horses are over the top and which aren’t I’m leaving the race alone. Am a big fan of Sir Des Champs, Long Run and First Lieutenant so its a race I’ll simply watch and enjoy and hope the best horse on the day triumphs (to be sporting I won’t say best connections as no-one is, of course, better than Mr Henderson and dear old Sam W-C). 2 that I will nominate to the regular readers are though: Mister Impatience (3.20 Epsom Downs) – following 2 introductory races the form of this well bred old boy has improved megamunguosly on his last pair of outings and he has won by a combined distance of 15 lengths in these heats. He could not have been more visually impressive on his seasonal return at Doncaster and Mark Johnston certainly knows what to do when he gets a rapidly improving one such as this. Mister Impatience’s rivals don’t look the best set of beasts ever to contest a Derby trial and connections are talking ambitiously of a tilt at the main event should he sluice up today. I think he will. Beat That (7.15 Punchestown) – Mr Henderson sends this one across the water to contest the ‘lucky last’. Beat That’s racecourse bow wasn’t the Geragty lad’s finest hour as the odds-on shot was beaten into 2nd after he had ‘brain fade’ and allowed the eventual winner a early massive lead. He’s not on board today though as Mr Henderson gives the leg up here though to the lovely Katie Harrington in this amateur riders contest. Beat That has a big reputation and showed undoubted promise at Kempton Park back in February. As long as he remains in good heart and is giving a fitting steer I would expect a win in this race. Finally, Mr Henderson’s Lieutenant Miller has been raised 5 pounds to 84 following Newbury last week. A middling rise as this is unlikely to get him in the Ascot Stakes and another run is almost certainly needed to do so. Maybe as early as Friday as I think I’m right in saying that if he goes to Doncaster in 48 hours time he gets to run off his old perch. Good luck all.
Im on at 40/1 outright, knew a long time ago this team was capable of being European champions, looks like this year may be their only chance, I had hoped they would stay together for many years as its such a young squad, but it looks like a few of the stars may be leaving for more money, Gotze already confirmed, Lewa looks likely to follow. Klopp is a genius though, he built this team from scratch and made most of the players in it, you would think they would show more loyalty to him than to money. If the club reinvest the money from Gotze and possibly Lewa in Klopp, he will replace them, Reus for me is a better player than Gotze anyway and there is still a few good young players there who have yet to be fully unleashed in Lietner and Bittencourt. Hummels for me is the best centre back in the world, I know many will disagree but I think he is class, his range of passing, composure, tackling and reading of the game are excellent and thats what I like in a centre back, he can get done for pace over the top but generally makes up for that with his intelligence. Barca are supposed to be after him, that would be a killer blow for Dortmund if he left but im hopeful he wont.
Captain Chris is an e/w bet to nothing at 6/1 with the dead eight going to post. No way he'll be out of the top three. The Real Milan has been aiming pretty high in his first season jumping fences, and after winning his first two starts he's largely fallen short since. Hopefully he can pick up where he left off at Ayr in Jan now he goes handicapping in the 5.35 at Perth. Having shown so much promise as a novice hurdler last season, it'll be disappointing if he doesn't turn out to be a bit better than his current mark of 133 as a chaser.
