The bookies odds are not determined by probability, they're determined by profitability or even bookies personal bias. The teams the bookies expect people to back most will have shorter odds than the teams they don't expect people to back as they need the losing bets to more than cover the winnings elsewhere. They represent public perception of teams. The teams they don't expect to be backed need longer odds to encourage more bets to be placed. (bigger rewards making the risk more justifiable/tempting) Essentially long odds are a result of a combination of teams not being in the playoffs this season, and the media coverage ignoring a club in favour of huge coverage of other clubs rather than being a conscious reinforcement of it. The informed minority's bets will be far outweighed by the ignorant majority who'll go "ooh West Ham are a massive club in that league so they'll piss it I'm putting some money on them".
Slightly O/T but I hate how the fair play league is based on more than just yellow and red cards. Don't you get points for attacking play and "letting the game flow"? I may have made that up.
I think it's crazy that the refs can take 4 days to write a report. I also think it's crazy that no one has worked out for definite who will be getting this fair play spot. I mean, they know how many reds and yellows Fulham and Blackpool got in their final game, so how hard can it be to work it out? It counts for absolutely nothing at all, I just think someone should know this by now.
Fulham have got the fair-play spot I think. West Ham will be the strongest team out of those relegated, regardless of money issues.
I think it's nigh on impossible to call the chances of west ham and Birmingham until mid august. Blackpool I'd imagine will be as they are minus Adam, Vaughan, Campbell and gilks plus loanees. They probably can strengthen unless owners decide to pocket their PL finances.
out of the three i can see birmingham being up there west ham in around the playoffs as long as they dont have massive financial problems i think blackpool will struggle after losing most of there team expect them to be in a fight to stay up