Exeter stages a very interesting card with some decent horses competing in fairly competitive events. I'm starting todays thread for two reasons. a) Global Power has to have a strong e/w chance in the 3pm. 8/1 b) Harry's Farewell reappears in the bumper and must have a decent chance of winning again following a really impressive victory first time out for Polly. I believe Princess had a word for this one last time and it will be most revealing what she has to say.
A couple for me tomorrow. I'll pop up write ups later on 4.00 Kempton Buxom 22/1 5.55 Fairyhouse Rockyaboya 6/1
Roto, you unfortunately agree with my only bet tomorrow 4.00 Buxom The ground is the key thing, and as such she looks really well handicapped.
I don't think she's completely ground dependent Nass, although I expect her the prefer to better ground. She was reported to be in season for her last start and hence why she ran so poorly and was pulled up.
4.00 Kempton Buxom 22/1 There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Jamie Snowden's 6 year old is a well handicapped horse off a mark of 114 and I only hope that she's good enough in this very competitive looking Mares Listed Handicap. Formerly with Oliver Sherwood, Buxom showed some very useful form in bumpers as she won both her first two career starts in good fashion (the latter under a penalty in game battling fashion with the front two pulling 20L clear). In the 2nd bumper, the runner up Whichever has shown some nice form over hurdles including when finishing a 11L beaten 4th behind the talented Baby Shine (2nd and 3rd rated 124 and 116 respectively) and she followed that up with an very good 2nd behind the excellent Tante Sissi. Buxom had two more runs for Oliver Sherwood - both in Listed Bumpers - where she ran with great credit on the first occasion running out a very nice 5th. After this, she joined Jamie Snowden where she has had four starts over hurdles - the first being a very eventful affair indeed! On the back of a 6 month absence, Buxom was sent off an odds on shot for her hurdling debut in what looks a pretty moderate affair in what turned out to be a very eventful race. She would have undoubtedly won easily but she saw the paddock entrance and jumped violently left handed at her last two flights and forfeited about 15L. She went down fighting by 1L in the end but those quirks seemed to have been ironed out. Her next start over hurdles came when she was pitched in against two hurdling debutants who had both won Listed bumpers (Call Me A Star reopposes tomorrow) and despite being beaten 22L it very much looked to me as if she was just out for the spin. In very testing conditions that wouldn't have suited, Buxom took up the running at 5 out, Buxom was headed at 3 out by Call Me A Star and Tom O'Brien did not try to go with the new leader and allowed her to come home in her own time. I'm not for a second saying she could or would have won but she certainly could have finished a lot closer and meets that rival on 20lb better terms (when taking into account Brendan Powell's claim) and I certainly think that could be enough to turn the tables. Buxom undoubtedly put in a career best when going down by a short head 2 starts back on her handicap debut off a mark of 108 when bumping into a very progressive and well handicapped horse but I think she was given a poor tactical ride by Tom O'Brien that day and I strongly believe she should have won. Over 17f at Taunton on soft ground, Buxom was held up at the back of the field and travelled and jumped well throughout the contest. Heading into the home straight, Tom O'Brien stalked the eventual winner still travelling ominously well and he let Queens Grove get first run on him as she was 3L clear jumping the 2nd last. Despite this, O'Brien only nudged Buxom to keep tabs on the winner and jumping the last he was a little under two lengths down before he got serious with her. Although she did pick up, she met a very game rival that day who just wouldn't give in and she eventually went down by a very narrow margin as she couldn't get there in time. If Buxom was asked to pick up sooner, there is no doubt in my mind she would have won but the form of that race is very, very strong. The winner Queens Grove won her next two races in impressive fashion with the last of those coming off a 15lb higher mark by a comfortable 10L and Buxom clearly ran a blinder with the front two drawing well clear of the field. Upped 6lb for that effort to her current mark of 114, Buxom's final start came when stepped up to 20f at Doncaster where she appeared desperately disappointing when pulled up but her trainer reported that she had come into season and resultantly you can put a big line through that run. With the valid discarding of her last start, Buxom's last piece of readable form came behind a very progressive and well handicapped mare and off a 6lb higher mark I certainly think she looks on a very nice mark. Buxom has been off the track for 108 days with this race clearly in mind which was even highlighted as her main target before she had even jumped a hurdle by Snowden last year and in a race where the trainer had the 4th home in Miss Millborne last season. She comes here thoroughly unexposed over hurdles on just her 2nd start in a handicap and I am 100% sure she is better than her mark. However, the race is full of similarly unexposed and progressive types and, given the large pot, there are sure to be a few on good marks so you've just got to hope she's well enough in. Although she has not gone past 17f in completed starts, I feel that the step up to 2m5f will suit as she has shaped like she will appreciate the extra distance on a couple of occasions and her two half siblings are 3m P2P winners which gives a strong case to her seeing out the trip from a breeding perspective. Additionally, I think she should definitely appreciate the return to the forecast sounder surface and I expect her to improve for the better ground conditions. I'm very happy to see the hugely talented Brendan Powell Jnr take the ride and he is worth every ounce and more of his 3lb claim which gives Buxom a lovely racing weight of 10-4. The race is clearly loaded with a multitude of dangers in what looks a very hot little Mares contest but I'm very happy taking 22/1 about a lowly weight horse who I feel is well handicapped. Jamie Snowden has his string in OK if not fantastic form at present and there I am sure Buxom will be absolutely spot on for this. Although it will take a really good performance, I can't see any reason why Buxom can't give one and off a mark that I think is extremely workable I'm hoping she can land this very nice prize. 5.55 Fairyhouse Rockyaboya 6/1 Willie Mullins's relatively unexposed 9 year old comes here in great form having won his last two races and despite a 9lb rise I think he looks to be still ahead of the handicapper and should be hard to beat. Now owned by Willie's son Patrick, Rockyaboya has clearly had his issues over the years which has seen him only 13 times under Rules (twice ran in P2P) but those issues clearly seemed to have been ironed out and he looks very much on an upward curve. On the back of an 11 month absence, he scored over 2m4f at Punchestown back in January under his owner to score by a short head off a mark of 107 but he clearly came on a lot for the run when running out an impressive 3.5L winner LTO off a 4lb higher mark over 20f at Navan. Despite sweating up terribly before the race which caused him to drift badly before the off (Mullins reported afterwards he's a hot horse and that can happen) he travelled beautifully into the race having chased a clear leader and took up the running heading into the home straight. Despite several challengers emerging, Patrick sat motionless on his mount exuding confidence and he pushed him to a clear advantage approaching the last. After jumping the last with ears pricked, his jockey had to get serious with him up the home straight but he was always holding his rivals and went on to score in convincing enough fashion. The form of that race was franked very strongly by the runner up Brian Who who went on to score in convincing fashion in a much more competitive race off a 3lb higher mark and Rockyaboya is clearly progressing despite his age. He has been raised 9lb for that effort which seems very fair in light of the runner ups subsequent success and the excellent Declan Lavery gets the leg up tomorrow to claim a very useful 5lb to offset a lot of that penalty. Although this is a slightly better race, its still a pretty weak contest and I definitely feel that Rockyaboya is the one they all have to beat. He's upped to 3m today but won his Maiden over 1f shorter and there is a strong chance he could improve for the extra distance. Although I strongly fancy him to win this, its probably wise to go e/w in this 25 runner field as there could be something well in off a low weight just to be sure. In conditions that should prove no problem, Rockyaboya comes here in very fine form and represents the typically flying Willie Mullins yard and his entry in a Grade B handicap at the Punchestown Festival certainly suggests that connections have high hopes for him and I think he will take a substantial amount of beating in this large but relatively weak enough field.
Don't really like to put anything up as somewhat overawed by your knowledge. However I'm 1 from 1 on here and think I'm not a bad judge of seeing a horse that would appreciate a further hike in trip and has a decent engine. The horse in question is Count Guido Deiro in the 14:30 Exeter. Don't think the race is as competitive as it's being made out to be. Good luck to all those playing today.
Roto/Nass: I'm sure you didn't intend it, but when you both put up a horse called Buxom in a mares' race, have you any idea of the opportunity you've given Stick to bury us all in grade 6 Carry-On style innuendo ? Unless (please God) he isn't here today, stand by for a barrage of oo-er missus quips on the lines of: responds well to gentle handling getting a soft time up front two enjoyable recent outings solid bumper form I could go on, but I don't want him over-excited. Good luck today, everyone, while I blow some more of my childrens' inheritance on Dawn Approach.
Morning, troops. I must say Buxom – what a lovely name for a mare. I like one at old Kempers Park. Let me elaborate: Master of the Game (2.50) – what a very well named individual in that he is indeed trained by the master of our game – Mr Henderson. Unfortunately though the old boy has been dogged by injury throughout his career (Master of the Game that is not Mr Henderson) and under rules the 7YO has been restricted to just 4 races. Always well regarded though (never gone off bigger than 100/30 despite contesting some fair contests) the highlight came back in May of last year when a facile 17 length winner from the now 124 rated Saints and Sinners. Master of the Game was also not disgraced on his return to the track, in February, when just 3.5 lengths behind the useful Tominator, off levels. According to the official assessor my choice has some ground to make up on the likes of Le Bec and Salmanazar today but I bally well think he is capable of bridging this gap here as I think him much better than a mere 126 rated animal. Good luck to all.
Yankee for me today... Le Bec 9/4 Last Shot 11/4 Call Me A Star 5/1 Rockyaboya 9/2 (sponged of Roto!!) Good luck all!!
Oh and one more thing well I’m around. Mr Henderson has got old boy Lieutenant Miller out on the level this Friday at Newbury (4.15) with the Queally lad already booked. My regular readers will know, from my ramblings last term, how ridiculously well handicapped I think this horse is on the Flat and the plan is most deffo the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting in June. Which Mr Henderson won, as recently as 2011, amid much flinging of toppers. I would have thought the horse would be Trying with a capital ‘T’ on Friday (as Mr Henderson’s always are) as to get into the Ascot race he will probably have to go up from his current perch of 79 by least 6 or 7 pounds. Possibly more.
Drever, for good measure I’ve just tipped another one! The one on Friday is ‘cast iron’, methinks.
Morning Troops... It seems we all have a eye on the Buxom lady in the corner as after opening my emails today i do indeed have a ATR tracker note pertaining to a certain Buxom at Kempton today... Just hope ive not jinxed the girl if ive got her tracked... We have been warned...
Hello lads. Some decent action today. I'm gonna have a few quid on Dangan Daylight @ 8/1 e/w 5.55 Fairyhouse with 4 places available at 1/4 the odds. Lovely big mare who has been novice chasing in decent company and is running off a significantly lower mark here than her 'chase rating.She also had decent form in her short hurdling career.The trip is the key and the step up to 3m will suit as will the more galloping track.Soft ground holds no terrors either. The favourite will be hard to beat (as alluded to by ROTO) but I think Dangan Daylight can give a good account in this ultra competitive 25 runner event. GL everyone.
From my tracker .... Glacial Age in the first at Southwell. I don't like shorties and this is a lousy price at a best current of 6-4, but is nailed on
