I know stats often mean very little but I've compiled a current form table based on the last 10 games. Forest 22 pts Bolton 22 City 18 Watford 18 Ipswich 18 Weds 17 Brighton 16 Brum 15 Barnsley 15 Charlton 14 Wolves 14 Palace 14 Peterborough 14 Cardiff 13 Derby 12 Burnley 11 Millwall 11 Blackpool 11 Hudders 11 Leeds 10 Bristol C 9 Leicester 7 MBoro 5 Blackburn 4 Now, I've divided these pts by 10 (as they have been accumulated in the last 10 games) and multiplied by the remaining number of games for each team and come up with a final league table. So, if each team carries it's form of the last 10 games into their remaining fixtures, we should see the final standings : Cardiff 87 City 83 -------------- Watford 80 Forest 74 Palace 73 Bolton 71 -------------- Brighton 70 Leicester 64 Weds 62 Ipswich 62 Charlton 61 Brum 61 Derby 60 Burnley 60 Millwall 59 MBoro 58 Blackpool 57 Leeds 57 Barnsley 57 Wolves 55 PBoro 54 -------------- Hudders 54 Blackburn 49 Bristol C 45 I've assumed that Huddersfield/Peterborough won't budge significantly from their current goal difference. Just a bit of fun..... It's only a bit of fun and anything can still happen edited bit: It's so much fun I even said fun twice ! Now that makes 4xfun !
Surely to work out the predicted points total over 5 games from a form guide of 10 games, the sensible calculation would be the points total from the 10 games divided by 2?
exactly - Millwall and Blackburn. As regards the current form table , I was surprised how high we were considering most fans think we've faltered recently.
10 games is a lot though, it's almost quarter of a season. I imagine most - well me anyway - think we've struggled more recently ie 6 games.
Statistics can be moulded and shaped to fight almost any argument you want. Whilst we've picked up results, we've made very hard work of it and both team and individual performances have been below par for the most part. That is what I'd base the suggestion on us being out of form by.
We've been on a win one lose one pattern - taken over 10 games would still yield 15 points. That's ok - but we need to do better than that over the remaining games.
Correct - since the 2-0 win over Blackburn we've alternated between losing/winning. We need to turn one of the 'projected' losses into a win and we'll be home and dry.
I can see Nottingham Forest winning @ Cardiff on saturday especially after Cardiffs wobble last night against Barsnley. Oh dear Lol. IF that happens and IF we win @ Ipswich (2 Ifs i know) then the gap is diown to just 3 points with 4 games left each. Nevermind Watford lets aim for Cardiff until its not possible.
That's what we need to do, look up and not down. If you go for the top spot and fall just short, then I am sure you will get 2nd place.
it would normally work but with so few games left the details like City V Cardiff can be misrepresented as say (both gaining the near average 2pts for that game)
