Weren't you with me on Master of the Sea at Chelts, Joe? Running on that day, I think that the longer trip will be just what he wants, and I can't see AFC being as dominant on a firmer surface
Friday 5th April Daily Thread - Aintree Day 2
- Thread starter ROTO
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Weren't you with me on Master of the Sea at Chelts, Joe? Running on that day, I think that the longer trip will be just what he wants, and I can't see AFC being as dominant on a firmer surface
Right chaps after seemingly being unable to pick my nose yesterday I find Friday's racing even more hazardous. I have 3 that I fancy so stuck them in an eway trixie (odd bet, I know)...
Super Duty
Cue Card
Broadway Buffalo
Good luck all!!
Super Duty
Cue Card
Broadway Buffalo
Good luck all!!
Evening guys a couple of early shouts im on already for tomorrow:
3.40 Hectors Choice 33/1 EW won about the same time last year at Cheltenham in a similar event but smaller field off a 4lb higher mark and drying ground will suit.
4.15 Buichaill Alain 33/1 EW has C&D form and once again conditions underfoot to suit, ran similar event, goes well fresh and runs off the same mark of 127 when he finished a close up 2nd when beaten a head by ELY BROWN with some useful types behind him.
4.50 Khyber Kim 14/1 EW upped in distance which should suit, getting on a bit now but is off a cracking mark of a 147, especially when you consider he has won over C&D albeit it on 2010 off a mark of 169, add to that the significant drop in class and his last two victors being non other than HURRCANE FLY and ZARKANDER who has franked that form today. Yet to do anything since transferring to the Henderson yard, however, i think this may have been his target and looks a knocking bet and worthy of some EW money.
Good luck tomorrow guys
3.40 Hectors Choice 33/1 EW won about the same time last year at Cheltenham in a similar event but smaller field off a 4lb higher mark and drying ground will suit.
4.15 Buichaill Alain 33/1 EW has C&D form and once again conditions underfoot to suit, ran similar event, goes well fresh and runs off the same mark of 127 when he finished a close up 2nd when beaten a head by ELY BROWN with some useful types behind him.
4.50 Khyber Kim 14/1 EW upped in distance which should suit, getting on a bit now but is off a cracking mark of a 147, especially when you consider he has won over C&D albeit it on 2010 off a mark of 169, add to that the significant drop in class and his last two victors being non other than HURRCANE FLY and ZARKANDER who has franked that form today. Yet to do anything since transferring to the Henderson yard, however, i think this may have been his target and looks a knocking bet and worthy of some EW money.
Good luck tomorrow guys
Has MTOY been on the go for a little too long? Hard to keep something 100% for two months and that Champagne Fever battle must have taken something out of him. But what's going to beat him? Can't find it so no bet.
One I like at a price in the 4.50 is Grandad's Horse - last seen winning a fixed brush hurdle at Haydock 12 months ago and only raised 4lbs for that. Track, going and trip should suit and he goes well fresh (2 wins from 4 after a 60 day break).
No bets for me tomorrow ... saving myself for the big one on Saturday. Work beckons unfortunately tomorrow... Presumably everyone on here is thinking Sprinter Sacre will smash his rivals? I note when looking through the Black Aeroplanes form , his only defeat was over 19f so whilst he's looked totally bomb proof and that he could easily step up another half a mile with no problem, is it gonna be that straight forward?? Bearing in mind results today will we have a shock? I have a feeling that Flemenstar is gonna be a real threat and for some reason I feel the course is gonna really suit this horse....
I feel if SS is going to beat it will be tomorrow by CC over this distance and I have included him in my trixie. I'm not overly confident as SS could destroy them tomorrow but my heart says CC and I would be delighted if he could turn it into a real stamina test and win.
Captain he was also beaten over 2 miles in the Supreme Novices Hurdle. He was a big baby as a hurdler and you have to say he is a different proposition over fences. He is bombproof.
I'm in total agreement Oddy. I've had a soft spot for this horse since his first runs. 33/1 with laddies but half that elsewhere.
Favourites day tomorrow. Can't see MTOY, SS, Dynaste or AFC getting beaten, the latter two the only ones with worthwhile prices for me so have stuck them in a double
I would be wary of Rocky Creek on good ground and I think MTOY and Sprinter are a better bet as a double.
Rocky Creek will be a nice one but he has never been the sort of horse to skip across the ground- he is a big powerful chaser and I think you need a bit more speed than he has got at this meeting this year.
Would not put anyone off Our Vinnie in the 3m hurdle as he will stay and stay. At Fishers Cross on breeding looks fine for good ground but his best form is all on soft and he has had one hell of a season already- perhaps he ought to be better for a break.
Back: Sprinter & MTOY
Lay: AFC & Rocky Creek
Mixed day for favs IMO.
Think Flemenstar and Sprinter should serve up a jumping exhibition!
Rocky Creek will be a nice one but he has never been the sort of horse to skip across the ground- he is a big powerful chaser and I think you need a bit more speed than he has got at this meeting this year.
Would not put anyone off Our Vinnie in the 3m hurdle as he will stay and stay. At Fishers Cross on breeding looks fine for good ground but his best form is all on soft and he has had one hell of a season already- perhaps he ought to be better for a break.
Back: Sprinter & MTOY
Lay: AFC & Rocky Creek
Mixed day for favs IMO.
Think Flemenstar and Sprinter should serve up a jumping exhibition!
3.40 Aintree
Gullible Gordon 20/1
Peter Bowen has an incredible record in this race having won 4 of the last 6 renewals include the last 3 with Grand National hope Always Waining and I think he has an excellent chance of taking this race for the 4th year on the trot with Gullible Gordon. Now a 10 year old, this gelding hasn't been with Bowen overly long but is undoubtedly well handicapped off a mark of 126 on the form he showed for Paul Nicholls and I was very impressed with his run over these fences in the Becher Handicap on unsuitably heavy ground back in December and I'm full sure that Bowen has targeted this race for him for the past few months. When trained by Nicholls, Gullible Gordon ran out a comfortable winner off a mark of 134 for his last win back in October 2010 and after losing his way he joined current connections in November last year. He made his debut for Bowen on the back of more than a year off the track when tailed off and clearly in need of the run at Haydock but he certainly showed his hunger for racing remained with an excellent performance in the Becher Chase. Off a mark of 130 and under Ryan Mania, Gullible Gordon was prominent early on sitting close enough to the pace and jumped pretty much every fence with aplomb and was clearly really enjoying himself. He was going so well, that he jumped to the lead at Bechers Brook and was still in the lead jumping 3 out. In the long run to 2 out, Gullible Gordon first came under pressure and was narrowly headed jumping 2 out. He continued to battle on gamely but was a couple of lengths down jumping the last and in the very long run in to the finish it was clear the tank was empty and he eventually finished a 15L beaten 6th over the 3m2f trip. On ground that he wouldn't have liked, it was a fantastic performance for most of the race and given that it was only his 2nd start back after such a long absence it wouldn't surprise me if it transpired that he wasn't 100% fit. That performance clearly demonstrated two things: his ability remains in tact and his affinity for Aintree and the National fences.
He's had one run since then when tailed off at Sandown on soft ground back in January but I'm quite happy to ignore that run as Peter Bowen has a tremendous knack of getting his horses spot on for the big occasion and he's clearly targeted this race for Gullible Gordon for the past few months and has been freshened up since then. Additionally, that run has seen the handicapper drop him 4lb to a career low mark over fences of 126. He has creeped in towards the bottom of the handicap and has a lovely racing weight of 10-1 which should be a massive bonus given that 7 of the last 12 winners have carried 10-4 or less. Jamie Moore takes the ride and was on board Bowen's winner of this back in 2007 and I'm happy with his booking. A prominent racer which is always something I like in huge fields like this 30 runner contest, it wouldn't surprise me if he actually went from the front as he is a stout stayer and enjoyed himself out in front here. Peter Bowen has clearly got his horses in superb form with his last 2 runners winning impressively and prior to 8 days ago he was winnerless since November which emphasises how good he is at getting his horses to peak at the right time and Gullible Gordon will be spot on for this. Clearly well handicapped and on a lovely racing weight, he should really appreciate the return to a sounder surface and his experience over the National fences should prove invaluable as the last 5 winners of this have experienced them before winning and that should stand him in great stead. Gullible Gordon's trainer clearly knows both what sort of horse it takes to win this and how to ready them and I'm sure this has been his goal. Although this 30 runner field is potentially fraught with danger, if Gullible Gordon receives a trouble free passage I think he'll take quite a bit of beating and I'm about as confident as you can be in a race of this nature.
Gullible Gordon 20/1
Peter Bowen has an incredible record in this race having won 4 of the last 6 renewals include the last 3 with Grand National hope Always Waining and I think he has an excellent chance of taking this race for the 4th year on the trot with Gullible Gordon. Now a 10 year old, this gelding hasn't been with Bowen overly long but is undoubtedly well handicapped off a mark of 126 on the form he showed for Paul Nicholls and I was very impressed with his run over these fences in the Becher Handicap on unsuitably heavy ground back in December and I'm full sure that Bowen has targeted this race for him for the past few months. When trained by Nicholls, Gullible Gordon ran out a comfortable winner off a mark of 134 for his last win back in October 2010 and after losing his way he joined current connections in November last year. He made his debut for Bowen on the back of more than a year off the track when tailed off and clearly in need of the run at Haydock but he certainly showed his hunger for racing remained with an excellent performance in the Becher Chase. Off a mark of 130 and under Ryan Mania, Gullible Gordon was prominent early on sitting close enough to the pace and jumped pretty much every fence with aplomb and was clearly really enjoying himself. He was going so well, that he jumped to the lead at Bechers Brook and was still in the lead jumping 3 out. In the long run to 2 out, Gullible Gordon first came under pressure and was narrowly headed jumping 2 out. He continued to battle on gamely but was a couple of lengths down jumping the last and in the very long run in to the finish it was clear the tank was empty and he eventually finished a 15L beaten 6th over the 3m2f trip. On ground that he wouldn't have liked, it was a fantastic performance for most of the race and given that it was only his 2nd start back after such a long absence it wouldn't surprise me if it transpired that he wasn't 100% fit. That performance clearly demonstrated two things: his ability remains in tact and his affinity for Aintree and the National fences.
He's had one run since then when tailed off at Sandown on soft ground back in January but I'm quite happy to ignore that run as Peter Bowen has a tremendous knack of getting his horses spot on for the big occasion and he's clearly targeted this race for Gullible Gordon for the past few months and has been freshened up since then. Additionally, that run has seen the handicapper drop him 4lb to a career low mark over fences of 126. He has creeped in towards the bottom of the handicap and has a lovely racing weight of 10-1 which should be a massive bonus given that 7 of the last 12 winners have carried 10-4 or less. Jamie Moore takes the ride and was on board Bowen's winner of this back in 2007 and I'm happy with his booking. A prominent racer which is always something I like in huge fields like this 30 runner contest, it wouldn't surprise me if he actually went from the front as he is a stout stayer and enjoyed himself out in front here. Peter Bowen has clearly got his horses in superb form with his last 2 runners winning impressively and prior to 8 days ago he was winnerless since November which emphasises how good he is at getting his horses to peak at the right time and Gullible Gordon will be spot on for this. Clearly well handicapped and on a lovely racing weight, he should really appreciate the return to a sounder surface and his experience over the National fences should prove invaluable as the last 5 winners of this have experienced them before winning and that should stand him in great stead. Gullible Gordon's trainer clearly knows both what sort of horse it takes to win this and how to ready them and I'm sure this has been his goal. Although this 30 runner field is potentially fraught with danger, if Gullible Gordon receives a trouble free passage I think he'll take quite a bit of beating and I'm about as confident as you can be in a race of this nature.
My tent or yours is going to win for sure, he is a serious horse who will gain comp from hisChelt defeat and will be a serious CH horse next year. Devestated we lost Darlan but he can take the mantle and so what we all knew Darlan would do.
4.50 Aintree
Manyriverstocross 16/1
Manyriverstocross comes here on the back of an excellent staying on 3rd in the County Hurdle last month and despite a 3lb hike in the the weights I think he's got a really good chance of going a couple of places better on what will be only his 3rd start after a long absence. Manyriverstocross had been off the track for 27 months with a stress fracture before reappearing in the Betfair Hurdle February and his run at Cheltenham clearly demonstrates that he still holds all of his ability. A pretty talented horse on the flat, this 8 year old proved equally as talented in his juvenile hurdling days when comfortably landing a Grade 2 way back in December 2009 before he ran an absolute blinder to finish 7th in the 2010 Neptune Hurdle but his finishing position does not do that run justice. At the 2nd flight, Manyriverstocross was hampered horrendously by the fall of Quel Esprit in front of him and Choc Thornton performed miracles that day to stay on board in an incident that surely took an awful lot out of the horse as he dropped back to the rear of the field. He showed tremendous resolution to get back into the race after that to finish a 15L beaten 7th as he was taken care of after the final flight when his chance was gone but he surely would have been challenging for a place had that horrible incident not occurred. That was his 2nd last start before a stress fracture saw him off the track for over 2 years with his final start prior to the injury coming on his seasonal reappearance with an absolutely belting run in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham when finishing 3rd off his current mark of 138. The form of that race is absolutely superb with the winner Menorah a high class hurdler who would go on to run really well in that seasons Champion Hurdle. Furthermore, the runner up Bothy went on to go down by a short head on his next start over hurdles off a 9lb higher mark in the similarly competitive Totesport Trophy before running an absolute blinder to finish 2nd in the Coral Cup when running into the very well handicapped Carlito Brigante off an 11lb higher mark that season. The form was franked over and over again by those in behind which include Any Given Day, Olofi and Get Me Out Of Here and it was a superb effort. Additionally, he may not have even been 100% wound up given that it was his first start since the Neptune 8 months earlier but it was clear that he was a very progressive horse at the time.
Its a shame his injury sidelined him for such a long time but he made his belated reappearance in the Betfair Hurdle in February where he tomorrow's jockey Wayne Hutchinson definitely took care of him as he came home to finish a promising 10th. That run clearly blew away the cobwebs when he arguably put in a career best 3 weeks ago at Cheltenham in the County Hurdle when running an absolute blinder to finish a 6L beaten 3rd. Held up towards the rear of mid division, Hutchinson hugged the rail on his mount throughout the contest to save ground. Swinging into the home straight Manyriverstocross was about 7th or 8th under pressure but in between the final two flights he stayed on really nicely and after jumping the final flight he put distance between himself and the rest of the field as the first two home had already achieved an insurmountable advantage. It was an absolutely superb run and a great sight to for his very patient connections and I think he'll improve again for what was his first proper blowout in such a long time. Based on his old form, I definitely feel he is still a well handicapped horse and I think he'll definitely appreciate the step back up to 20f, the distance of his Grade 2 win. I also think it is very interesting that Wayne Hutchinson sticks with Manyriverstocross as opposed to switching to Coral Cup 2nd Meister Eckhart (who Coleman road that day) and I hope its a signal of intent as Hutchinson would probably have had the choice of rides. Alan King, who won this back in 2010, has his horses in good form at present and landed the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle today. Of the opposition, Broadway Buffalo is clearly the most fascinating contender in the field being unbeaten in 5 contests and untroubled over hurdles and you've just got to hold up your hands if he wins this. I rate Salubrious as a very big threat on the back of his impressive Martin Pipe win for which an 8lb rise seems fair and I've had a saver on him. If building on his last run, I strongly fancy a big run from Manyriverstocross who should relish the step up in distance and it would be a tremendous reward for connections if he can land this after his unfortunate injury.
Manyriverstocross 16/1
Manyriverstocross comes here on the back of an excellent staying on 3rd in the County Hurdle last month and despite a 3lb hike in the the weights I think he's got a really good chance of going a couple of places better on what will be only his 3rd start after a long absence. Manyriverstocross had been off the track for 27 months with a stress fracture before reappearing in the Betfair Hurdle February and his run at Cheltenham clearly demonstrates that he still holds all of his ability. A pretty talented horse on the flat, this 8 year old proved equally as talented in his juvenile hurdling days when comfortably landing a Grade 2 way back in December 2009 before he ran an absolute blinder to finish 7th in the 2010 Neptune Hurdle but his finishing position does not do that run justice. At the 2nd flight, Manyriverstocross was hampered horrendously by the fall of Quel Esprit in front of him and Choc Thornton performed miracles that day to stay on board in an incident that surely took an awful lot out of the horse as he dropped back to the rear of the field. He showed tremendous resolution to get back into the race after that to finish a 15L beaten 7th as he was taken care of after the final flight when his chance was gone but he surely would have been challenging for a place had that horrible incident not occurred. That was his 2nd last start before a stress fracture saw him off the track for over 2 years with his final start prior to the injury coming on his seasonal reappearance with an absolutely belting run in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham when finishing 3rd off his current mark of 138. The form of that race is absolutely superb with the winner Menorah a high class hurdler who would go on to run really well in that seasons Champion Hurdle. Furthermore, the runner up Bothy went on to go down by a short head on his next start over hurdles off a 9lb higher mark in the similarly competitive Totesport Trophy before running an absolute blinder to finish 2nd in the Coral Cup when running into the very well handicapped Carlito Brigante off an 11lb higher mark that season. The form was franked over and over again by those in behind which include Any Given Day, Olofi and Get Me Out Of Here and it was a superb effort. Additionally, he may not have even been 100% wound up given that it was his first start since the Neptune 8 months earlier but it was clear that he was a very progressive horse at the time.
Its a shame his injury sidelined him for such a long time but he made his belated reappearance in the Betfair Hurdle in February where he tomorrow's jockey Wayne Hutchinson definitely took care of him as he came home to finish a promising 10th. That run clearly blew away the cobwebs when he arguably put in a career best 3 weeks ago at Cheltenham in the County Hurdle when running an absolute blinder to finish a 6L beaten 3rd. Held up towards the rear of mid division, Hutchinson hugged the rail on his mount throughout the contest to save ground. Swinging into the home straight Manyriverstocross was about 7th or 8th under pressure but in between the final two flights he stayed on really nicely and after jumping the final flight he put distance between himself and the rest of the field as the first two home had already achieved an insurmountable advantage. It was an absolutely superb run and a great sight to for his very patient connections and I think he'll improve again for what was his first proper blowout in such a long time. Based on his old form, I definitely feel he is still a well handicapped horse and I think he'll definitely appreciate the step back up to 20f, the distance of his Grade 2 win. I also think it is very interesting that Wayne Hutchinson sticks with Manyriverstocross as opposed to switching to Coral Cup 2nd Meister Eckhart (who Coleman road that day) and I hope its a signal of intent as Hutchinson would probably have had the choice of rides. Alan King, who won this back in 2010, has his horses in good form at present and landed the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle today. Of the opposition, Broadway Buffalo is clearly the most fascinating contender in the field being unbeaten in 5 contests and untroubled over hurdles and you've just got to hold up your hands if he wins this. I rate Salubrious as a very big threat on the back of his impressive Martin Pipe win for which an 8lb rise seems fair and I've had a saver on him. If building on his last run, I strongly fancy a big run from Manyriverstocross who should relish the step up in distance and it would be a tremendous reward for connections if he can land this after his unfortunate injury.
AINTREE 17:25 MARES NH FLAT RACE (LISTED) 2m 1f
05-04-2013 17:25
Win or E/W
Each Way Odds: 1/5 places 1,2,3
Rathvawn Belle @ 14/1 (GP)
AINTREE 16:50 HANDICAP HURDLE (LISTED) 2m 4f
05-04-2013 16:50
Win or E/W
Each Way Odds: 1/4 places 1,2,3,4
Broadway Buffalo @ 10/1 (GP)
AINTREE 16:15 NOVICES HURDLE (GRADE 1) 3m 110y
05-04-2013 16:15
Win or E/W
Each Way Odds: 1/5 places 1,2,3
Just A Par @ 10/1 (GP)
AINTREE 15:40 TOPHAM CHASE (GRADE 3) 2m 5f 110y
05-04-2013 15:40
Win or E/W
Each Way Odds: 1/4 places 1,2,3,4,5
Gullible Gordon @ 12/1 (GP)
Small EW L15 and Acca
away from Aintree check out James Rev's rides at Sedge and Richie Mac has a couple of interest if i get out i will post
stay frosty
05-04-2013 17:25
Win or E/W
Each Way Odds: 1/5 places 1,2,3
Rathvawn Belle @ 14/1 (GP)
AINTREE 16:50 HANDICAP HURDLE (LISTED) 2m 4f
05-04-2013 16:50
Win or E/W
Each Way Odds: 1/4 places 1,2,3,4
Broadway Buffalo @ 10/1 (GP)
AINTREE 16:15 NOVICES HURDLE (GRADE 1) 3m 110y
05-04-2013 16:15
Win or E/W
Each Way Odds: 1/5 places 1,2,3
Just A Par @ 10/1 (GP)
AINTREE 15:40 TOPHAM CHASE (GRADE 3) 2m 5f 110y
05-04-2013 15:40
Win or E/W
Each Way Odds: 1/4 places 1,2,3,4,5
Gullible Gordon @ 12/1 (GP)
Small EW L15 and Acca
away from Aintree check out James Rev's rides at Sedge and Richie Mac has a couple of interest if i get out i will post
stay frosty
Nice write up ROTO, but stop advising that 16-1 - I didn't get it last night and it isn't available now! 
Did manage to get 12's though, and I'm not greedy!
I agree with everything you say re Many Rivers, and when you consider that he beat Get Me Out of Here by 8 lengths off levels, and is now weighted 20lb lower, "well handicapped" is an understatement
I don't get the Broadway Buffalo interest - yes he's been winning easily, but beating low graders - this race is a whole other world. If he wins it then fair do's, but he's bloody short enough in a race this open. Agree about Salubrious too, but I'm putting all my Easter eggs, in "Rivers" basket
Did manage to get 12's though, and I'm not greedy!
I agree with everything you say re Many Rivers, and when you consider that he beat Get Me Out of Here by 8 lengths off levels, and is now weighted 20lb lower, "well handicapped" is an understatement
I don't get the Broadway Buffalo interest - yes he's been winning easily, but beating low graders - this race is a whole other world. If he wins it then fair do's, but he's bloody short enough in a race this open. Agree about Salubrious too, but I'm putting all my Easter eggs, in "Rivers" basket
0820: HORSE RACING
Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander heads the maximum field of 40 runners declared for Saturday's Grand National at Aintree, but trainer Ted Walsh feels On His Own, ridden by his brother Ruby, is rightly the favourite.
Well well Ted, Rupert is your Brother (according to the BBC !!)
wonder where Katie sits in the family tree then ????????
Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander heads the maximum field of 40 runners declared for Saturday's Grand National at Aintree, but trainer Ted Walsh feels On His Own, ridden by his brother Ruby, is rightly the favourite.
Well well Ted, Rupert is your Brother (according to the BBC !!)
wonder where Katie sits in the family tree then ????????